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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Europe Pre-Open: FTSE (0.89%), DAX (1.00%), CAC (0.93%)

Sep 21 ,2023

  • Synopsis

    • European equity markets are set to open lower amidst weaker session in Asia. S&P 500 futures extend losses afterhours. Hawkish Fed weighing on sentiment as regional benchmarks accumulate losses. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Australia markets down at least 1%. Bond markets under pressure with Treasury curve bear steepening. Aussie yields also sharply higher. Dollar extending gains, strongest against Aussie, euro and sterling. Crude and metals tracking equity declines.

    • No surprise as FOMC left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Also as expected, median dot for 2023 continued to show one more rate hike. Median dot for 2024 jumped 50 bp to 5.10% and median dot for 2024 increased 50 bp to 3.9%, though the neutral rate estimate stayed at 2.5% despite some upside risk. Fed meeting and updated projections triggering hawkish reaction on markets with stocks under pressure, bond yields backing up and dollar extending move higher.

    • Attention in Europe to turn to central banks decisions. BoE policy decision is finely balanced after yesterday's weaker-than-forecast inflation data. Prior to the release, the consensus was for another 25 bp hike to take the Bank Rate to 5.50%, but the market is now pricing in less than 50% probability for a hike. Several sell-side economists that recently backed today's decision as probably the last in the rate hike cycle, are now calling for a pause and leave the door open for a hike in Nov. BoE is also due to announce its QT plan for the coming year. Forecasts are for the total rundown of the BoE balance sheet to increase from £80B this year to £95B.

    • It is widely expected that Norway's central bank will stick to its strategy with another 25bp rate hike today, taking the key policy rate to 4.25%. Analysts also believe the bank will leave optionality for one more rate hike this year, even though 4.25% is currently seen as peak-rate. Since June, most economic data has been in-line with the bank's projections. The only surprises come from the recent surge in Crude oil prices, and higher rates abroad, which may compel Norges Bank to leave room for one more hike. Expectations are for a further rate hike from Sweden's central bank as well, given the extensive weakness in the Swedish Krona (SEK). This would take rates to 4.00%. Focus may very well shift to the Nov policy decision, which analysts suggest may bring a further hike. Analysts see the policy rate peaking in Nov at 4.25%, and the first rate cut may come in Sept-24. SNB interest rate decision also due today with +25bp hike to 2% expected.

    • In macro releases scheduled for today Eurozone Flash Sep Consumer Confidence due at 15:00 BST, Spain Jul Trade Balance out at 9:00 BST, France Sep Business Confidence due at 7:45 BST.

    • Earnings releases are light; of note, Next (NXT.LN), JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), DFS (DFS.LN), CVS Group (CVSG.LN) due to update investors out of the UK. Cegedim (CGM.FP), ALD (ALD.FP), Strix Group (KETL.LN) host CMD/Analyst Meetings today.

  • Politics/ Macro/World News

    • Netherlands Aug Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.6% and prior 3.6%

    • UK:

      • Bank of England on brink of rate hike pause after inflation surprise - Reuters

      • Rishi Sunak delays petrol car ban in major shift on green policies - BBC

      • King Charles calls to 'reinvigorate' ties between France and UK - Politico

      • EU not focused on Starmer plan to bring UK closer - BBC

    • Brussels considers defending EU nations in Ukraine grain dispute - FT

    • Poland to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain row -- BBC

    • Slovak election could see Kyiv lose staunch ally - Reuters

  • Top company news

    • Earnings/updates

      • ABI.BB (Anheuser-Busch InBev) -- says sales in US have stabilzed; Mexican unit continues to grow - Bloomberg

      • LONN.SW (Lonza Group) -- reconfirms outlook for 2023; to host CMD on 17-Oct

      • GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- H1 net income (€20.9M) vs FactSet (€16.7M) [3 est, (€29.6)-(0.4M)]

      • VLA.FP (Valneva) -- H1 net income (€35.0M) vs year-ago (€171.5M)

      • QDT.FP (Quadient) -- H1 EPS €1.05 vs year-ago €0.75; confirms FY guidance

      • TNG.FP (Transgene) -- H1 net income (€15.9M) vs year-ago (€15.3M)

      • OVS.IM (OVS) -- H1 adj net income €33.7M ex-items, +6% vs year-ago €31.9M; increases share buyback by €20M

      • ALKAL.FP (Kalray) -- H1 net income (€3.0M) vs year-ago (€7.5M)

      • CGM.FP (Cegedim) -- H1 net income (€8.8M) vs year-ago (€4.9M)

      • GBT.FP (Guerbet) -- H1 net income €3.3M, +154% vs year-ago €1.3M

      • SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine) -- H1 net income (CHF2.1M) vs year-ago CHF0.1M

      • BAI.NA (BenevolentAI) -- H1 normalised operating loss (£40.6M) vs year-ago (£51.4M)

    • M&A

      • CA.FP (Carrefour) -- announces acquisition of 47 supermarkets and convenience stores in Spain for enterprise value of €60M

      • IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- and Hepalys Pharma, Inc. announce exclusive licensing agreement to develop and commercialize lanifibranor in Japan and South Korea; has also exercised rights to own 30% of Hepalys

      • ARL.GR (Aareal Bank) -- Atlantic BidCo to submit cash delisting tender offer of €33.20 per outstanding shares in Aareal Bank

      • STSU.NO (Standard Supply) -- announces sale of the mid-sized PSV FS Balmoral for $9.5M

    • Healthcare

      • ORPHA.DC (Orphazyme) -- appoints Jakob Bendtsen as CEO, effective 1-Oct-23

    • Other

      • HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- to provide $1B in funding for climate startups - Reuters

      • SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- signs 15y renewable PPA with TotalEnergies to supply N.American industrial sites

      • LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group) -- London Stock Exchange rejects criticism that London's position as leading financial centre is slipping - FT

      • EXM.BB (Exmar NV) -- to examine Saverex NV's request to convene EGM and special general meeting

      • SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig) -- to initiate a share buyback of up to 1M shares

      • BAI.NA (BenevolentAI) -- CEO Joanna Shields to step down

  • Key rating changes

    • Upgrades

      • ANE.SM (Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables) -- to buy from hold at SocGen

      • EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis) -- to buy from hold at SocGen

      • TUI.LN (TUI Group) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies

      • ELIMP.NO (Elektroimportøren) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets

    • Downgrades

      • OCDO.LN (Ocado Group) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

      • OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank

    • Initiations

      • CHEMM.DC (ChemoMetec) -- hold at Nordea

      • CGCBV.FH (Cargotec) -- buy at Nordea

      • BFSA.GR (Befesa) -- hold at Deutsche Bank

    • Other Actions

      • G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- assumed outperform at BNP Paribas Exane

      • LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- transferred buy at Carnegie Securities; prior rating was hold

  • Data

    • Nikkei (1.25%) to 32609.51

    • Hang Seng (1.24%) to 17664.16

    • Shanghai Composite (0.65%) to 3088.49

    • S&P futures (12.3) vs prior close of 4447.0

    • €-$ (0.0027) or (0.25%) to 1.0635

    • $-¥ (0.00) or (0.00%) to 148.34

    • €-¥ (0.36) or (0.23%) to 157.77

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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