Sep 25 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly in red territory with Switzerland +0.0% bucking the negative trend. Belgium (1.5%), Spain (1.3%) and Norway (1.2%) led underperformers.
In political developments, as Emmanuel Macron's party suffered losses in the Senate election, the President undertook a relaunch in his presidential address from the Elysée Palace on Sunday evening ahead of the expected unveiling later today of his latest plan for meeting climate-related commitments, and the budget 2024 later in the week. Elsewhere, Italian government will offer banks a get-out clause to 40% windfall tax if they set aside additional capital, according to press reports.
Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde warned on further slowdown in activity in Q3, while Schnabel said haven't yet won battle on inflation front. Bank of France Governor Villeroy said earlier that the ECB must be careful on policy from here and warned against testing the economy to breaking point (Bloomberg). Also, Latvia's Kazak said September hike may enable October pause, while Spain's Cos said inflation should return to target if interest rates maintained at current level for some time.
From a macro calendar perspective, German Sep Ifo survey saw little change from the prior month, whilst in the UK, retail sales volumes fell in the year to September for a fifth consecutive month, but at a much slower rate than last month, according to the latest monthly CBI Distributive Trades Survey.
In corporate news, Aperam (APAM.NA) shares were down after company issued a profit warning and now guides Q3 adjusted EBITDA €15-20M vs FactSet €67.3M. In Italy, GVS (GVS.IM) board approved 2023-2025 financial targets: consolidated revenues CAGR between +4.5% and +5.5%. In the UK, Entain (ENT.LN) provided trading update reiterating FY23 EBITDA guidance of £1.00-1.05B; Wilmington (WIL.LN) reported FY earnings in line with trading update. In other corporate developments, Videndum (VID.LN) trading higher after news hollywood writers in deal to end US studio strike.
In M&A, Novartis (NOVN.SW) confirmed plans for the 100% Spin-off of the Sandoz business; Aviva (AV.LN) announced acquisition of AIG Life Limited from Corebridge Financial, Inc. for £460M. On the speculation front, Adidas' Chief Digital Officer Scott Zalaznik reportedly to leave the company.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Construct & Mtls +0.32%, Health Care +0.02%, Oil & Gas (0.19%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.22%), Financial Svcs (0.29%), Real Estate(0.36%), Retail (0.40%), Media (0.51%), Banks (0.52%),
Underperformers
Travel & Leisure (2.92%), Persnl & HHold Goods (2.04%), Telecom (1.58%), Utilities (1.47%), Autos & Parts (0.99%), Food & Beverage (0.95%), Insurance (0.91%), Basic Resources (0.80%), Chemicals (0.66%), Technology (0.63%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
ECB
UK
Rishi Sunak scraps home energy efficiency taskforce - BBC
Sunak set to scrap second leg of HS2 to Manchester - London Times
Ex-minister calls for inquiry into HS2 as he warns of 'disastrous' consequences if northern leg is scrapped - Sky
Tories slash Labour poll lead as voters still 'wobbly' on Starmer - Telegraph
Ireland
Coalition leaders to meet over Budget 2024 preparation - rte
Spain
Bank of Spain's de Cos comments on monetary policy in the euro area at International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds/ COFIDES conf - speech
Italy
Italian PM Meloni reproaches Germany's Scholz over migration - Reuters
France
Ukraine
Zelenskyy seeks to rebuild bridges with Poles amid dispute over grain and weapons - Politico
Russia
Russian crude exports increase 50% despite sanctions - euractiv
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+51.5% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.02, +0.01) -- sign partnership agreement for production of Sarconeos with Skyepharma
+11.9% STOCKA.FH (Stockmann €2.35, +0.25) -- investigates strategic alternatives for the Department Stores business
+10.5% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.11, +0.11) -- update on Shaikan Field local sales
+8.6% VSCA.GR (4SC €10.10, +0.80) -- presents study
+8.6% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK7.96, +0.63) -- l signs its second US hospital agreement for DiviTum Tka
+6.4% CNV.FP (Cnova €2.66, +0.16) -- discloses extension of the conciliation proceedings
+5.1% CRH.LN (CRH plc £45.59, +2.20) -- to begin $1B tranche of the wider $3B programme announced on 2-Mar-23
+3.6% ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA €4.05, +0.14) -- Crédit Agricole - perhaps through Amundi - re-opens the Anima's deal -- Affari Italiani citing La Stampa
+2.4% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €30.12, +0.70) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+2.0% BAMI.IM (Banco BPM €4.72, +0.09) -- Italian govt to offer get-out clause to 40% Windfall Tax if banks set aside capital -- Bloomberg; Crédit Agricole - perhaps through Amundi - re-opens the Anima's deal -- Affari Italiani citing La Stampa
+1.3% IF.IM (Banca Ifis €16.12, +0.21) -- Italian govt to offer get-out clause to 40% Windfall Tax if banks set aside capital -- Bloomberg
+1.1% WRKS.LN (TheWorks.co.uk £0.36, -0.00) -- Kelso Group Holdings PLC buys 2.0M ordinary shares in company
+1.0% EUROB.GA (Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings €1.54, +0.01) -- holder Hellenic Financial Stability Fund agrees to sell its stake in the bank through UBS
Notable Decliners
-17.3% STAR.B.SS (Starbreeze SEK0.64, -0.13) -- PAYDAYT 3 Update
-14.0% ENT.LN (Entain £9.08, -1.48) -- updates on current trading and FY23 Online NGR guidance
-12.8% IQG.LN (IQGeo Group £2.53, -0.37) -- H1 earnings
-11.4% SPO.LN (Sportech £0.70, -0.09) -- Harwood Capital LLP raises stake in Sportech to 29.9% from 19.2% - filing
-5.1% OLE.SM (Deoleo €0.23, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-4.0% GVS.IM (GVS SpA €4.93, -0.21) -- GVS board approves 2023-2025 financial targets: consolidated revenues CAGR between +4.5% and +5.5%
-4.0% VCP.LN (Victoria £5.26, -0.22) -- Victoria plc's audit nightmare; company states that "there is no wrong-doing at Hanover and nor are the auditors alleging this" -- FT
-3.7% APAM.NA (Aperam €26.08, -1.01) -- Q3 EBITDA guidance
-3.5% BOUV.NO (Bouvet NOK55.30, -2.00) -- The Norwegian Directorate of Immigration enters agreement with twoday and Bouvet; valued at more than NOK 700M
-2.8% LI.FP (Klepierre €23.73, -0.69) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
-1.9% VLA.FP (Valneva €5.78, -0.11) -- contract
-1.5% ADS.GR (Adidas €161.38, -2.40) -- Chief Digital Officer Scott Zalaznik to leave the company - Manager Magazin
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Mithra Pharmaceuticals (MITRA.BB), Biocartis Group (BCART.BB)
France: Lumibird (LBIRD.FP), Nanobiotix (NANO.FP), HERIGE (ALHRG.FP), Maat Pharma (MAAT.FP), Poxel (POXEL.FP)
DACHs: VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie (VBK.GR)
UK/Ireland: Ferguson (FERG.LN), Smiths (SMIN.LN), Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN), Next 15 Group (NFG.LN), Learning Technologies Group (LTG.LN), Card Factory (CARD.LN), Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (MAB1.LN), Circassia Pharmaceuticals (NIOX.LN), Alliance Pharma (APH.LN), Finsbury Food (FIF.LN), EKF Diagnostics (EKF.LN), Animalcare (ANCR.LN), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN), Wentworth Resources (WEN.LN), NAHL Group (NAH.LN), Origin Enterprises (OIZ.ID)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Aug PPI (8.4%) y/y vs consensus (10.6%) and prior (10.0%)
Spain Aug PPI (10.0%) y/y vs consensus (10.0%) and prior revised (8.6%) from (8.4%)
Germany Sep Ifo survey - release
Business Climate 85.7 vs consensus 85.2 and prior revised 85.8 from 85.7
Current Conditions 88.7 vs consensus 88.0 and prior 89.0
Expectations 82.9 vs consensus 82.9 and prior revised 82.7 from 82.6
Markets:
€-$ (0.0065) or (0.61%) to 1.0589
£-$ (0.0045) or (0.37%) to 1.2212
€-£ (0.0021) to 0.8673
S&P 500 +0.18%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.31%
DAX: +10.64%
CAC: +10.04%
MIB: +19.72%
Stoxx 600: +6.01%
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