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StreetAccount Summary - Europe Pre-Open: FTSE (0.40%), DAX30 (0.18%), CAC40 (0.34%)

Sep 25 ,2023

  • Synopsis

    • European equity markets set to open broadly lower, extending last week's losses when the Stoxx Europe 600 declined (1.9%).

    • Recall last week was dominated by central bank policy updates. The Fed decision was the biggest driver of the risk-off tone. It left policy unchanged but there was a hawkish surprise with higher median rate projections. In Europe, both the BoE and SNB kept policy unchanged, but the Riksbank and Norges Bank hiked rates. Meanwhile, the BoJ left policy unchanged, as expected.

    • Asian equities mixed Monday. China developers experiencing their biggest fall since December, driving Hang Seng Properties index towards lowest since early 2009. Focus shifting back to Evergrande, which said it is unable to issue new debt, coming days after it delayed meeting with creditors. Development adds to concerns around refinancing pressures after Country Garden bondholders said they had not received payment on dollar bond due a week ago. Despite flurry of policy support announcements from Beijing, sector continues to face liquidity constraints

    • European macro data releases out today include Germany Sep Ifo survey, UK Sep distributive trades - CBI, Spain Aug PPI, Finland Aug PPI

    • Also on today's agenda: ECB's Lagarde before EP committee at 15:00CET, the same time as ECB's Schnabel delivers the Johann-Heinrich-von-Thünen lecture. Today also sees the release of the first ECB Economic Bulletin pre-releases. Norges Bank's Longva and Børsum speech at 9:00CET at bank's Regional Network, Mid Norway. ECB/Banque de France/CEPR conf (through Tue) speakers include Villeroy 9:00CET. There's a Slovakia central bank board meeting. Also, General Conf. of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA. Jefferies hosting UK Politics: Insights from The Economist's Political Correspondent Matthew Holehouse at 14:00BST

    • On the macro front, Bloomberg reports hedge funds boosted bearish wagers on the euro to a near one-year high as markets bet the ECB is done raising interest rates. Notes leveraged investors ramped up net short positions on the shared currency to 23,306 contracts during the week ended Sept. 19, the most since Oct. 11, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Longer-term asset managers also pared back bullish bets on the currency.

    • In corporate highlights, Aperam (APAM.NA) guides Q3 adjusted EBITDA €15-20M vs FactSet €67.3M. Italian banks eyed as Bloomberg reports they will be allowed to avoid paying a controversial windfall tax introduced last month if they set aside additional capital reserves, according to a government amendment. Meanwhile, in the UK, the FT reports the Bank of England will delay implementing the latest package of global post-crisis banking reforms for another six months.

    • Among key rating changes, Jefferies upgrades AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) to buy from hold and BNP Paribas Exane upgrades Ubisoft (UBI.FP) to outperform from neutral.

  • Macro/politics

    • European Carmakers Dial Up Pressure on Post-Brexit EV Tariffs - Bloomberg

    • Hedge Funds Boost Euro Shorts to 11-Month High on Peak ECB Bets - Bloomberg

    • Why Slovakia's Election Could Be a Win for Putin - Bloomberg

    • Germany scraps plans for more stringent building standards to prop up industry - Reuters

    • UK to delay implementing global banking reforms - FT

    • ECB's Villeroy Says Fuel Jolt Won't Affect 2% Inflation in 2025 - Bloomberg

    • Italy Offers Banks Get-Out Clause to Controversial Windfall Tax - Bloomberg

  • Top company news

    • Earnings/updates

      • APAM.NA (Aperam) -- guides Q3 adjusted EBITDA €15-20M vs FactSet €67.3M [3 est, €62.0-72.0M]

      • Also reporting today

      • Earnings:

        • France: Aelis Farma (AELIS.FP), Carmat (ALCAR.FP)

        • UK: Alphawave IP Group (AWE.LN), Wilmington (WIL.LN), IQGeo Group (IQG.LN), Real Estate Investors (RLE.LN)

      • CMD/events: TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) Energy Outlook, Pharming Group (PHARM.NA) EGM to elect chairman, Sage Group (SGE.LN) Innovation and Product webinar, CRH (CRH.LN) investor presentation to mark the transition of its primary listing to the NYSE

    • M&A

      • TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- KKR requests extension to 10/15 for submission of binding offer for Telecom Italia's Netco unit

      • SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden) -- SBB strengthens liquidity with approximately SEK 8B and presents decentralised group structure

      • (OTHER) ESI.FP (ESI Group) -- and Keysight Technologies announce the signature of a share purchase agreement; Keysight to acquire majority stake in at €155/share; expected completion in Q4 2023

    • Healthcare

      • PFE (Pfizer) -- CDC ACIP votes 11-1 to recommend Pfizer's Abrysvo for RSV (maternal vaccination)

      • NOVN.SW (Novartis)

        • confirmed plans for the 100% Spin-off of the Sandoz business, with trading of new Sandoz Group AG shares and ADRs to commence on 4-Oct-23

        • Phase III NETTER-2 trial with Lutathera met its primary endpoint

      • VLA.FP (Valneva) -- announces new contract worth at least $32M with the US government for the supply of its IXIARO vaccine

      • BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic) -- announces LEQEMBI Intravenous Infusion approved for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease in Japan

      • ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- Biophytis, Skyepharma sign partnership agreement for production of Sarconeos

    • Other

      • NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- Norsk Hydro's board initiates share buyback program for up to 100.0M shares

      • VCP.LN (Victoria plc) -- audit nightmare; company states that "there is no wrong-doing at Hanover and nor are the auditors alleging this" -- FT

      • PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- begins "meaningful co-operation" on advertising, technology and even content with MediaForEurope -- CEO tells FT

      • ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- holder Alix AM files suit over sale of Tech Foundations to Daniel Kretinsky - AFP

      • INTRUM.SS (Intrum) -- comments on Moody's downgrade of its credit rating to B1 from Ba3

      • DIA.SM (Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion) -- announces the resignation of Stephan DuCharme as Chairman to the Board; appoints Benjamin Babcock as successor

      • SCST.SS (Scandi Standard) -- appoints Fredrik Sylwan as new CFO effective 15-Jan-24

      • BPOST.BB (bpost) -- to take €75M provision following compliance reviews

      • Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $49.2M, (21.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo

    • ESG

      • SBTi actions last week include near term approvals for Disney, Corning; net zero approvals for a.ka. Brands, SK Networks (22-Sep)

  • Key rating changes

    • Upgrades

      • AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies

      • CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan

      • TEL.NO (Telenor) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg

      • UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane

      • DLN.LN (Derwent London) -- to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets

    • Downgrades

      • LI.FP (Klepierre) -- to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets

      • ADYEN.NA (Adyen) -- to hold from buy at Stifel

  • Data

    • Nikkei +0.93% to 32703.28

    • Hang Seng (1.36%) to 17811.84

    • Shanghai Composite (0.42%) to 3119.37

    • S&P futures +11.0 vs prior close of 4361.0

    • €-$ (0.0009) or (0.08%) to 1.0645

    • $-¥ +0.08 or +0.06% to 148.36

    • €-¥ (0.01) or (0.01%) to 157.92

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