Sep 27 ,2023
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly mixed to lower with Norway and Netherlands exceptions to the negative trend. In sectors, energy the outsized gainer whilst real estate, utilities and insurance the main laggards. No change in broader narrative. Market tone remains cautious amid nervousness over prospect of higher-for-longer rates.
In central banks, ECB's Elderson says rates haven't necessarily peaked in interview with MNI from 22-Sept. Austrian central bank chief Holzmann, a known ECB hawk, suggested persistent inflationary pressures may yet lead to further rate hikes. Holzmann pointed to potential spillover from higher oil prices, but also acknowledged trade-off with economic resilience. Added ECB should raise mininum reserves of commercial banks to 5-10%.
On the political front, focus on Spain as conservative leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo failed on Wednesday to secure enough votes in the lower house to become prime minister, Reuters reports. Feijoo will have a second attempt on Friday, when a simple majority would be enough for him to be elected prime minister, however is widely expected to lose, paving the way for Socialist leader Sanchez to make a bid for premiership.
Amongst today's notable macro releases, German GfK consumer confidence for October fell to (26.5) versus consensus (26.0) and prior revised (25.6) from (25.5). GfK highlighted increase in appetite to save was the main driver. Rose 7.5 points to 8.0, the highest level since Apr-11. Also, France Sep Consumer Confidence deteriorated to 83 vs forecast 84 and prior 85. Elsewhere, Eurozone Aug M3 Money Supply decreased by (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (0.4%). Out of Italy, the asset management association reported latest numbers recording a total net outflows of (€3.38B) in August vs prior outflow (€3.82B).
In earnings, out of DACHs, Hornbach Holding (HBH.GR), Helvetia Holding (HELN.SW) and KWS Saat (KWS.GR) posted their latest numbers whilst - in the UK - Allergy Therapeutics (AGY.LN), Saga Plc (SAGA.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN) and Pendragon (PDG.LN) issued earnings updates, with the latter also confirming that it has received an unsolicited proposal from AutoNation, Inc. (AN) at 32p/sh in cash. In France, Arkema (AKE.FP) is holding its CMD today and disclosed target to achieve sales of around €12B with an elevated EBITDA margin of around 18% by 2028. In Sweden, H&M (HM.B.SS) released Q3 numbers and also the initiation of a new SEK 3B share buyback.
On the M&A newsflow, press reports suggest Spain is considering imposing conditions on Saudi Telecom's (7010.AB) acquisition of 9.9% stake in Telefonica (TEF.SM), whilst Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN) agreed to acquire an initial 51% stake in MaxBet for a cash consideration of €141M
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, main releases will include, amongst others, Germany Sep preliminary CPI, Eurozone Sep economic sentiment, Italy Sep business/consumer confidence and Aug PPI, Spain Sep preliminary CPI and Aug retail sales.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Oil & Gas +1.55%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.77%, Technology +0.60%, Basic Resources +0.42%, Banks +0.30%, Media +0.16%, Construct & Mtls +0.12%, Retail +0.07%, Travel & Leisure +0.05%, Autos & Parts (0.13%), Chemicals (0.14%)
Underperformers
Real Estate(2.00%), Utilities (1.76%), Insurance (1.65%), Telecom (1.27%), Food & Beverage (1.08%), Financial Svcs (0.81%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.59%), Health Care (0.39%)
Macro:
Central banks:
ECB's Holzmann Floats Tenfold Hike in Minimum Reserves -- Bloomberg
EU:
Euro zone 2024 fiscal tightening seen limited by slowing economy -- Reuters
UK:
Germany:
Unemployment is falling, inflation will fall below two percent in 2025 -- Handelsblatt, citing five leading economic research institutes
France:
Notice relating to the draft laws of finance and social security financing for the year 2024 -- High Council of Public Finance (HCFP)
France unveils modest spending cuts for next year -- FT
Italy:
Exclusive: Italy in talks with Bavaria on gas and hydrogen exports, eyes eastern Europe -- Reuters
Spain:
Spain's conservative leader Feijoo fails in first bid to become prime minister -- Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+30.8% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.70, +0.16) -- updates on LUMEVOQ EMA scientific advice
+30.6% ONWD.BB (Onward Medical €4.05, +1.03) -- first-in-Human implant of ARC-IM stimulator with brain-computer interface (BCI)
+16.7% ENSU.NO (Ensurge Micropower NOK0.13, +0.02) -- to host a Company update presentation
+11.4% PDG.LN (Pendragon £0.33, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+11.2% VSCA.GR (4SC €9.30, +1.05) -- Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) for resminostat (Kinselby) in CTCL from US FDA
+10.4% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.29, +0.03) -- Alkaid-2 re-entry operations commence
+9.9% SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling NOK35.90, +3.45) -- Completes 19.4M-share private placement at NOK33/sh
+8.8% ITH.LN (Ithaca Energy £1.77, +0.14) -- Phase 1 of Rosebank development progress
+8.0% LBIRD.FP (Lumibird €13.46, +1.06) -- Q2 earnings
+7.6% ODL.NO (Odfjell Drilling NOK35.95, +2.65) -- Phase 1 of Rosebank development progress
+5.5% KWS.GR (KWS Saat €55.30, +2.90) -- FY earnings
+5.4% ZIN.LN (Zinc Media Group £0.97, +0.05) -- H1 earnings
+4.2% BIOS.BB (BioSenic €0.12, +0.01) -- completes post-hoc analysis of its phase 2 clinical trial of ATO
+3.8% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.03, -0.00) -- FY earnings; circular to shareholders in relation to the open offer
+3.7% ADYEN.NA (Adyen €699.00, +24.10) -- Barclays upgrade
+3.4% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz SEK161.70, +5.26) -- Q3 earnings
+2.0% ICP.LN (Intermediate Capital Group £14.01, +0.27) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+1.9% COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals CHF41.70, +0.75) -- Distribution and License agreements for Winlevi in Europe and South Africa
+1.8% MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals €1.88, +0.03) -- presentation of positive data on Estetrol (E4) native Estrogen at NAMS 2023
Notable Decliners
-18.8% NN.NA (NN Group €31.47, -6.81) -- Court of Appeal judgement in respect to unit-linked insurances labelled Flexibel Verzekerd Beleggen; Oddo downgrade
-16.0% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €11.38, -2.08) -- H1 earnings
-13.5% PHC.LN (Plant Health Care £0.08, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-6.2% TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien €9.62, -0.61) -- HSBC downgrade
-5.8% ALHRG.FP (HERIGE €25.10, -1.60) -- Q2 earnings
-5.0% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.58, -0.08) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade; initiated sell at Liberum Capital
-4.9% GPE.LN (Great Portland Estates £4.14, -0.21) -- Jefferies downgrade
-4.6% MAAT.FP (Maat Pharma €5.90, -0.26) -- H1 earnings
-1.2% AVG.LN (Avingtrans £3.80, -0.05) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Fluxys Belgium (FLUX.BB)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), Carbios (ALCRB.FP), Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits (MBWS.FP), Evolis (ALTVO.FP), Inventiva (IVA.FP), Precia (PREC.FP), ATEME (ATEME.FP), Xilam Animation (XIL.FP), Novacyt (ALNOV.FP), Valerio Therapeutics (ALVIO.FP), METabolic EXplorer (METEX.FP), ABIONYX Pharma (ABNX.FP), Mauna Kea Technologies (ALMKT.FP)
DACHs: PharmaSGP (PSG.GR), cyan (CYR.GR)
Southern Europe: Philogen (PHIL.IM), Expert.ai (EXAI.IM), Bastogi (B.IM)
UK: Ceres Power (CWR.LN), Avacta (AVACT.LN), Microlise (SAAS.LN), HSS Hire Group (HSS.LN), Shield Therapeutics (STX.LN), Hansard Global (HSD.LN), Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN.LN), XLMedia (XLM.LN), RBG Holdings (RBGP.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Oct GfK Consumer Confidence (26.5) vs consensus (26.0) and prior revised (25.6) from (25.5)
France Sep Consumer Confidence 83 vs consensus 84 and prior 85
Switzerland Sep ZEW Expectations (27.6) vs consensus (36.0) and prior (38.6)
Norway Aug Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.5% and prior revised 3.6% from 3.5%
Sweden Aug Trade Balance (SEK8.40B) vs consensus (SEK5.5B) and prior revised to SEK 6.10B from SEK4.6B
Eurozone Aug M3 Money Supply (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (0.4%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (23-Nov): +$3.33 or +3.68% to $93.72
€-$ (0.0050) or (0.47%) to 1.0523
£-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.2150
€-£ (0.0034) to 0.8663
S&P 500 (0.01%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +1.90%
DAX: +9.29%
CAC: +9.24%
MIB: +18.16%
Stoxx 600: +5.18%
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