Sep 28 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed to higher. Asian equities are trading mixed with Nikkei selloff deepening with index hitting one-month low. Losses also picking up in Hong Kong as property developers extend drop. S&P 500 futures higher. Treasuries yields down 1 bp but backup continues elsewhere with JGB curve steepening and Australian and New Zealand rates sharply higher. Yen firming against other currencies, Aussie tracking gains in offshore yuan. EUR/USD trading in 1.0560s, levels not seen since March 2023. Crude at 13-month high with supply squeeze in focus following another drop in US stockpiles.
Risk sentiment remains hamstrung by relentless backup in bond yields and markets dialing back 2024 rate cut expectations. Bearish bond market narrative driven largely by higher-for-longer Fed messaging, resilient labor markets, upside risk to inflation from surging oil prices, and ramp in bond issuance compounded by QT. Higher rate backdrop putting more scrutiny on equity market valuations, particularly high growth/tech pockets.
On the agenda for today, ECB's Enria fireside chat at 14:00CET and McCaul panellist at 9:45 at 7th SSM and EBF Boardroom Dialogue. Riksbank's Flodén speech at 10:15CET at the Swedish Credit Union's autumn conf; BOE's Hauser speech at 10:30BST at Market News. ECB economic bulletin is published at 10:00CET
In macroeconomic releases, Spain Sep preliminary CPI and Aug retail sales are due at 8:00 BST. Italy Sep business/consumer confidence is out at 9:00 BST, followed by Aug PPI at 10:00 BST. Eurozone Sep economic sentiment is released at 10:00 BST as well and Germany Sep preliminary CPI is out at 13:00 BST.
Macro/Politics/World News:
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PSG.GR (PharmaSGP Holding) -- confirms preliminary H1 results announced on 14-Sep; raised FY revenue outlook
PCO.PW (Pepco Group N.V.) -- makes further downward revision to forecast for the full year 2023
KOMN.SW (Komax Holding) -- targets revenues of more than CHF1B and EBIT of over CHF120M for 2028 - Investor Day
AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM) -- announces long-term financing consisting of €2.25B of rights issue, notes, and other financial instruments
SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden) -- announces new publication date for Q3 report of 9-Nov from prior 26-Oct
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- H1 net income (€7.8M) vs year-ago (€12.4M)
BEN.FP (Beneteau) -- H1 net income €117.1M, +121% vs year-ago €52.9M
TFIN.IM (Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale) -- H1 net income attributable €23.6M vs year-ago (€19.8M)
OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- H1 net income (€11.9M) vs year-ago (€2.0M)
ALCRB.FP (Carbios) -- H1 net income (€13.7M) vs year-ago (€11.8M)
M&A
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- KKR (KKR) granted extension to 15-Oct for submission of binding offer for Telecom Italia's Netco unit
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- optimistic about TAP's prospects if it acquires the airline - Reuters
BPSO.IM (Banca Popolare di Sondrio) -- Unipol Gruppo to purchase 46.3M ordinary shares of Banca Popolare di Sondrio, equal to ~ 10.2% of the bank's share capital, at a price not exceeding €5.10/sh, through a reverse accelerated book building process
AAA.FP (Alan Allman Associates) -- finalizes acquisition of KEYTEO's Asian Branch
IPEL.LN (Impellam Group) -- announces further extension of deadline to11-Oct for HeadFirst to either announce firm intention to make offer for Impellam or to announce that it does not intend to make offer
Healthcare
CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics) -- confirms FDA orphan drug designation for the treatment of Alport syndrome with setanaxib
BSLN.SW (Basilea Pharmaceutica) -- announces New England Journal of Medicine publication of phase 3 data on ceftobiprole for the treatment of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia
PHO.NO (PhotoCure) -- appoints current board member Dylan Hallerberg as interim Chairperson
CANTA.SS (Cantargia) -- presents new clinical and biomarker data supporting nadunolimab's antitumor activity and a key role of its target IL1RAP in pancreatic cancer
EVE.SW (Evolva Holding) -- Evolva and LEHVOSS sign agreement for distribution of Veri-teTM Resveratrol in over a dozen European countries
Other
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- UBS seeking deal with Mozambique to avoid litigation over Credit Suisse's involvement in 'tuna bond' scandal - FT
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- production halted at several plants following IT malfunction - Stern
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- Ryanair facing broad delivery delays of Boeing 737 Max with disruptions set to continue through mid-2024 - Bloomberg
GLEN.LN (Glencore) --
to stop funding Koniambo Nickel mine in New Caledonia effective 29-Feb-24
Glencore among parties participating in Chalice's (CHN.AU) Gonneville auction process - Australian Financial Review
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- resolved the payment of a cash interim dividend of €0.16 (gross) per share on account of the 2023 dividend, to be paid on 11-Oct-23
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $288.2M US Army contract modification
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- announces intent to appeal the draft finance law for 2024 presented to the Council of Ministers; opposes introduction of new tax on certain transport infrastructures
SFL.IM (Safilo Group) -- Safilo Group, Stuart Weitzman announce a new exclusive global licensing agreement till June 2029, for the design, manufacturing and distribution of Stuart Weitzman branded sunglasses and optical eyewear collections
LOG.SM (Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista) -- board further extends repurchase program to 1-Oct-24
YCA.LN (Yellow Cake) -- to conduct non-pre-emptive placing of shares at £5.50/sh to raise gross proceeds of up to ~$125M (~£103M) through Cantor, Canaccord, and Berenberg
AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding) -- announces remaining 18,312 new registered shares for which subscription rights were not validly exercised during subscription period were sold in the market at average placement price of CHF 114.00 /sh
SIP.BB (Sipef) -- CFO Johan Nelis to step down, become general manager of Sipef's Plantations J. Eglin; effective from start of 2024
ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding) -- CFO Ralf Retzko to step down, Andreas Kuhn appointed replacement, effective 1-Oct
GETI.B.SS (Getinge) -- reaches settlements with insurer Trygg-Hansa Försäkring (TRYG.DC) and If Skadeförsäkringar for a total compensation amount of SEK 450M
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- to buy from hold at SEB
SVT.LN (Severn Trent) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
TLX.GR (Talanx) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
RED.SM (Redeia Corporacion) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
SLR.SM (Solaria Energia) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
UU.LN (United Utilities Group) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
AXFO.SS (Axfood) -- to sell from hold at Danske Bank
Initiations
ADE.NO (Adevinta) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
HEM.SS (Hemnet Group) -- buy at Pareto
MACF.LN (Macfarlane Group) -- buy at Berenberg
ARGX.BB (argenx) -- outperform at Oddo
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- neutral at Oddo
EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- buy at Societe Generale (timing uncertain)
NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle) -- buy at Carnegie Securities
Other Actions:
NG.LN (National Grid) -- reinstated overweight at Barclays
Data
Nikkei (1.42%) to 31910.67
Hang Seng (0.92%) to 17449.47
Shanghai Composite +0.17% to 3112.66
S&P futures +8.3 vs prior close of 4313.5
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.07% to 1.0511
$-¥ (0.28) or (0.19%) to 149.35
€-¥ (0.22) or (0.14%) to 156.94
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