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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.29% to 7623.92, DAX +0.48% to 15397.23, CAC40 +0.44% to 7147.47, STOXX 600 +0.50% to 450.74

Sep 29 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in positive territory, however off the session's highs. Focus on inflation after Eurozone inflation surprised on the downside in September with an headline rate at 4.3% versus consensus 4.5% Breakdown showed easing in energy and food prices contributing to downside surprise in headline. Goods news also on services inflation, down 0.9% on the month to 4.7% y/y versus prior 5.5%. In terms of country readings, inflation easing in majority of countries, including Germany and France, but firmer in Spain, Italy and Ireland. Sell-side analysts highlighted influence of base effects on key components in headline rate but easing in underlying inflation a positive development. Has added traction to bond market recovery after selloff in recent sessions. Might dampen some of the hawkish rhetoric that has circulated this week among ECB officials. Also, German retail sales missed expectations in August, with a 1.2% m/m drop versus consensus for 0.5% expansion and prior 0% reading, revised up from the 0.8% drop initially reported. Note, German retail sales often subject to change and covers less than 50% of overall consumption. Left y/y sales down 2.3% in real terms versus forecast for 0.7% fall and prior 2.2% drop.

    • Hedge funds reportedly betting that central banks will not deliver on inflation targets. Short positions on bonds occurring alongside central bank balance sheet reduction (QT) potentially compounding rise in yield. Recent backup in bond yields increases scrutiny on Eurozone markets. As markets begin to price in the higher-for-longer rate backdrop and possibility of another Fed rate hike this year, budget deficit levels in Italy and France exacerbated price action (Bloomberg). Italy's budget deficit forecast at 4.3% of GDP next year and France sees deficit of 4.4%. Against this backdrop, Italian BTPs moved within a short distance of 5% and Bund-BTP spread widened above 200 bps on Thursday. In the UK, which has experienced debt market volatility, saw 20 bps move up in 10-year Gilt yield above 4.5%, the biggest daily rise since February. Some thoughts repositioning exacerbated the move after large drop in UK yields last week when BoE paused rate hike cycle.

    • On the earnings front, French companies kicked off the session with H1/Q4 reports out from Inventiva (IVA.FP), Virbac (VIRP.FP), Trigano (TRI.FP) and Valerio Therapeutics (ALVIO.FP). In other corporate development, BHG Group (BHG.SS) launched a broad restructuring program in the Value Home segment, program costs (SEK1.26B). In the banking secotr, Commerzbank (CBK.GR) updated its Capital Return Policy, whilst Russian President Putin signed a decree permitting Intesa (ISP.IM) to sell Russian assets. In the UK, Severn Trent (SVT.LN) published its Business Plan for Severn Trent Water and also announced an equity issue to raise gross proceeds of ~£1B, with Qatar Investment Authority investing £500M in it; also, Yew Tree Consortium will purchase additional 26M ordinary shares in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML.LN) and increase its stake to 26.23%. In M&A news, TKH Group (TWEKA.NA) completed the divestment of TKH France activities to Argos Wityu and initiated a €25M share buyback; Handelsblatt reported that ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) held negotiations with billionaire Daniel Kretinsky to take 50% stake in its steel business

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (please see our comment StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Oct 2-6 attached below), macro data will include Switzerland, Italy and Eurozone Aug retail sales, Italy Aug unemployment rate, Switzerland Sep CPI, Italy Q3 preliminary GDP, Eurozone Aug PPI, Germany and UK Sep construction PMI, Germany Aug trade balance and factory orders, France and Spain Aug industrial production as well as France Aug trade balance. Earnings activity still light, with reports/updates out from UK companies Greggs (GRG.LN), Pennon (PNN.LN), JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) and James Halstead (JHD.LN). In the Nordics, Nordnet (SAVE.SS) and Avanza Bank (AZA.SS) whilst elsewhere, LDC (LOUP.FP) and GRENKE (GLJ.GR) update investors. Sep new car registrations from across the region and airline traffic stats are sprinkled through the week. Conferences at which European companies are due to present include KBC Securities Life Sciences, Kepler Energy Services and IT Value-Added-Reseller Day, LD Micro Main, ODDO BHF Iberian, Peel Hunt Investor, Portzamparc BNP Paribas Biotech & Health, RBC Virtual CDMO, Real Expo, Redburn Rothschild & Co Small & Mid Cap, Redeye Autoimmune and Inflammatory Disease, Santander Conference

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Real Estate+2.97%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.32%, Technology +1.27%, Food & Beverage +1.11%, Utilities +0.94%, Media +0.86%, Basic Resources +0.84%, Retail +0.76%, Chemicals +0.72%, Telecom +0.63%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.60%, Financial Svcs +0.51%

      • Underperformers: Oil & Gas (1.11%), Insurance (0.26%), Travel & Leisure (0.12%), Construct & Mtls +0.14%, Autos & Parts +0.20%, Health Care +0.29%, Banks +0.32%

    • Macro:

      • UK overtakes France and Germany as economic growth bigger than expected after COVID (Sky)

      • France's Macron proposes 'a form of autonomy' for Corsica after riots (Al Jazeera)

      • Migrants should go to NGOs' home countries says Tajani (Ansa)

      • EU fails to agree changes to migration laws as Germany and Italy clash (Guardian)

      • Spain's conservatives fail to form government, clearing way for socialists (Reuters)

      • Door opens for Sánchez as Spanish lawmakers reject Feijóo's PM bid again (Politico)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +25.2% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £8.95, +1.80) -- FY trading update

        • +10.7% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £2.89, +0.28) -- Yew Tree Consortium increase stake to 26.23%

        • +10.7% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €10.76, +1.04) -- capital return policy update

        • +9.2% TRI.FP (Trigano €128.90, +10.90) -- prelim. Q4 revenue

        • +9.0% AURE.FP (Aurea €5.34, +0.44) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.5% ADS.GR (Adidas €167.10, +10.12) -- NKE sympathy

        • +6.4% ASCL.LN (Ascential £2.10, +0.13) -- Apax Partners in advanced talks to buy WGSN from Ascential - Sky News

        • +6.4% PGH.LN (Personal Group Holdings £1.84, +0.11) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.2% NKT.DC (NKT A/S DKK369.00, +21.60) -- record order

        • +6.0% PUM.GR (Puma €58.96, +3.36) -- NKE sympathy

        • +5.7% IVA.FP (Inventiva €4.10, +0.22) -- H1 earnings; ADS sales agreement for up to $58M with TD Cowen

        • +5.4% BHG.SS (BHG Group SEK13.20, +0.68) -- broad restructuring program worth (SEK1.26B) in the Value Home segment

        • +5.3% NANO.FP (Nanobiotix €8.32, +0.42) -- presentation of first data from Phase I study evaluating NBTXR3 for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer

        • +5.2% DOV.IM (doValue €3.72, +0.19) -- completes the acquisition of the SKY non-performing exposures transaction

        • +4.5% VIRP.FP (Virbac €254.50, +11.00) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.1% TWEKA.NA (TKH Group €37.78, +1.48) -- completes divestment of its TKH France activities to Argos Wityu; to initiate up to €25M share buyback

        • +3.8% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €23.20, +0.86) -- finalizes the acquisition of MediaMarkt in Portugal

        • +3.4% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €197.30, +6.50) -- offer for Ordina becomes unconditional

        • +3.0% FYB.GR (Formycon €58.20, +1.70) -- EMA submission acceptance of FYB202 Marketing Authorization Application

        • +2.8% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK18.86, +0.51) -- US patent for Sedaconda ACD-S

        • +2.4% IQG.LN (IQGeo Group £2.57, +0.06) -- €8.6M contract

        • +2.2% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £42.50, +0.90) -- 2025 Production Plan; new CEO

        • +2.1% CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom €33.09, +0.67) -- divests a 49% stake in its subsidiaries Cellnex Sweden AB and Cellnex Denmark ApS to Stonepeak for ~ €730M

        • +1.9% ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland €35.63, +0.68) -- appeals to the Dutch Supreme Court in the case vs Aegon Nederland

        • +1.6% GBT.FP (Guerbet €16.78, +0.26) -- initiated neutral at CIC Market Solutions

        • +0.6% VCP.LN (Victoria £5.30, +0.03) -- AGM update

        • +0.3% LTMC.IM (Lottomatica Group €8.81, +0.03) -- Flutter Entertainment and Playtech engaged in £500M bidding war for Italian gaming group PlanetWin365 - Sky News

        • +0.1% ISP.IM (Intesa Sanpaolo €2.45, -0.00) -- Putin signs decree permitting Intesa to sell Russian assets -- Reuters

        • +0.1% RHIM.LN (RHI Magnesita £28.00, +0.04) -- Ignite Luxembourg Holdings S.à r.l. extends date for satisfaction or waiver of the regulatory clearance condition in respect of offer

      • Notable Decliners

        • -19.5% XIL.FP (Xilam Animation €13.60, -3.30) -- H1 earnings

        • -14.5% METEX.FP (METabolic EXplorer €0.53, -0.09) -- H1 earnings; Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -14.1% EBQ.LN (Ebiquity £0.40, -0.07) -- H1 earnings

        • -10.6% SPEX.SW (Spexis CHF0.25, -0.03) -- H1 earnings

        • -6.1% EURN.BB (Euronav €15.27, -1.00) -- holder John Fredriksen considering exiting stake in company - Lloyds List

        • -3.6% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £18.90, -0.70) -- holder Morgan Tillbrook completes placing of 789,476 shares at a price of £19.00/share

        • -3.2% ATEME.FP (ATEME €7.80, -0.26) -- H1 earnings

        • -2.7% BYS.SW (Bystronic CHF569.00, -16.00) -- Stifel downgrade

        • -2.3% ELTEL.SS (Eltel SEK6.84, -0.16) -- €23M contract

        • -1.9% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.01, -0.00) -- H1 earnings

        • -1.1% FLTR.LN (Flutter Entertainment £134.15, -1.45) -- Flutter Entertainment and Playtech engaged in £500M bidding war for Italian gaming group PlanetWin365 - Sky News

        • -1.1% RQIH.LN (R&Q Insurance Holdings £0.56, -0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • -1.0% ALV.GR (Allianz €226.30, -2.35) -- CFO Giulio Terzariol set to join Generali as head of the insurance business unit -- La Stampa

        • -0.5% PTEC.LN (Playtech £4.52, -0.02) -- confirms that it is currently participating in a process regarding the potential acquisition of SKS365 Malta

        • -0.1% G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali €19.43, -0.02) -- Allianz CFO Giulio Terzariol set to join Generali as head of the insurance business unit -- La Stampa

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings: Aryzta (ARYN.SW), James Halstead (JHD.LN), Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Bonduelle (BON.FP)

      • Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM)

      • CMD/events: AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) Barclays, Fireside Chat

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Sep Preliminary CPI +4.3% y/y vs consensus +4.5%, prior +5.2%; core CPI +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.8%

      • Germany

        • Aug Retail Sales (2.3%) y/y vs consensus (0.7%), prior (2.2%)

        • Sep Unemployment change +10K vs consensus +15K, prior +18K

        • Sep Unemployment Rate 5.7% vs consensus 5.7%, prior 5.7%

      • France

        • Sep preliminary CPI +4.9% y/y vs consensus +5.1%, prior +4.9%; (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.3%), prior +1.0%

        • Aug PPI (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.4%), prior +0.9%

        • Aug Consumer Spending (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.5%), prior revised +0.4% from +0.3%

      • Switzerland Sep KOF Leading Indicators 95.9 vs consensus 90.5, prior revised 96.2 from 91.1

      • UK

        • Q2 final GDP +0.6% y/y vs preliminary +0.4%; +0.2% q/q vs preliminary +0.2%

        • Aug M4 Money Supply +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2%, prior revised (0.6%) from (0.5%)

        • Aug Mortgage Approvals 45.35K vs consensus 45.0K, prior revised 49.53K from 49.44K

      • Italy Sep Preliminary CPI +5.3% y/y vs consensus +5.3%, prior +5.4%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.1%, prior +0.3%

      • Austria Sep preliminary CPI +6.1% y/y vs consensus +6.8%, prior +7.4%; +0.5% m/m vs consensus +1.1%, prior +0.3%

      • Denmark

        • Q2 final GDP (0.3%) q/q vs 2nd estimate +0.3%

        • Aug Unemployment Rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.5%, prior 2.5%

      • Sweden Aug Retail Sales (1.7%) y/y vs consensus (2.7%), prior revised (2.6%) from (2.1%)

      • Netherlands

        • Sep preliminary CPI +0.2% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior +3.0%

        • Aug Retail Sales +5.9% y/y vs consensus +4.5%, prior revised +4.6% from +5.0%

      • Portugal Sep Preliminary CPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +4.0%, prior +3.7%

      • Greece

        • Aug PPI (8.3%) vs consensus (7.0%), prior (8.6%)

        • Jul Retail Sales (3.4%) y/y vs consensus (2.8%), prior (7.6%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Nov 23): ($0.73) or (0.80%) to $90.98

      • €-$ +0.0011 or +0.10% to 1.0579

      • £-$ +0.0003 or +0.02% to 1.2206

      • €-£ +0.0010 to 0.8670

      • S&P 500 +0.37%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +2.31%

        • DAX: +10.58%

        • CAC: +10.41%

        • MIB: +19.34%

        • Stoxx 600: +6.08%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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