Oct 02 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed in negative territory with pan-European services around session lows after giving up earlier gains. Denmark (1.6%), Greece (1.5%), Austria and FTSE100 (1.3%) led underperformers whilst Portugal (0.3%), Sweden (0.5%) led outperformers.
Fears of a policy mistake/hard landing remain key overhang on sentiment with many expecting financial conditions to tighten further as Fed and other central banks stick with their higher-for-longer stance. Oil spike also playing into concerns around sticky inflation that keeps alive prospects of further tightening.
On today's agenda, EU Foreign Ministers hold Kyiv press conference (euronews livestream). Meanwhile EP Committee questions Commissioner-designate for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra (replacing Frans Timmerman) from 18:30CET (livestream). Germany's Chancellor Scholz holds latest of his Chancellor's TALK with citizens in afternoon, in Hamburg.
Central bank commentary continued with ECB Vice-President de Guindos dismissing rates cuts and said getting back to 2% target will not be easy (FT). He cited the rise in oil prices, wage growth, resilient services demand and government spending as factors blocking timely return to target. Speed of policy transmission and impact on Eurozone economy also under scrutiny. Also, minutes from the September Riksbank policy meeting signalled readiness for another rate hike in the key policy rate and said they plan to keep a restrictive monetary policy for longer in a bid to tackle inflationary pressures
From a macro calendar perspective, manufacturing PMIs for Sep dominated. France and UK came in above preliminary data whilst Germany slightly fell behind. Eurozone final manufacturing PMI unchanged from flash at two-month low of 43.4. UK house price data shows prices little change in September, leaving y/y drop of 5.3%.
In corporate news, Aryzta (ARYN.SW) reported FY net income €112.0M vs FactSet €72.5M and said it remains on track to deliver further improvements across all key metrics in line with guidance for remainder of 2023. Out of the Nordics, 24SevenOffice Group (247.SS) shares were down following its trading update.
In the UK, XP Power (XPP.LN) noted trading over Q3 has been below expectations as weaker end-market demand resulted in some customers deferring shipments into 2024; United Utilities Group (UU.LN) was among water companies submitting business plans to Ofwat covering the 2025-30 period. The company also provided update on current trading, saying it's in line with the group's FY expectations; Peel Hunt (PEEL.LN) posted H1 trading update.
On M&A front, SAES Getters (SG.IM) announced the closing of the Nitinol business divestment deal; provisional closing price results in a capital gain of ~€698.3M. In other corporate developments, Sydbank (SYDB.DC) appointed Mark Luscombe as new CEO; Schroders PLC (SDR.LN) confirmed that Richard Keers had today stepped down as an Executive Director and CFO.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology (0.21%), Autos & Parts (0.27%), Telecom (0.52%), Retail (0.56%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.61%), Travel & Leisure (0.73%), Real Estate(0.80%), Health Care (0.84%), Media (0.94%),
Underperformers
Utilities (2.59%), Chemicals (1.80%), Oil & Gas (1.58%), Basic Resources (1.43%), Insurance (1.42%), Construct & Mtls (1.38%), Banks (1.30%), Financial Svcs (1.19%), Food & Beverage (1.10%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.05%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
OPEC
OPEC optimistic on demand, secretary general says - Reuters
UK
Water companies want bills to increase by £156 a year by 2030 to fund upgrades, tackle sewage discharges - BBC
Jeremy Hunt says tax cuts must wait - Times
HS2 to Manchester shelved, ITV News understands - ITV news
Civil Service Numbers Cap, then moving back to pre-Covid levels (66K) - gov.uk
Tougher rules to stamp out debanking - gov.uk
Chancellor announces major increase to National Living Wage - gov.uk
Ireland
Q3 house prices +4.1% y/y, +0.6% q/q - MyHome.ie Property Report
Germany
Italy
Italy weighs auto incentive scheme to cut Chinese EV price advantage, sources - Reuters
Portugal
Centeno: "Regulators must find a balance that does not hinder crypto innovation" - Jornal de Negocios
Finland
Finland faces autumn of discontent with strikes and protests over government's austerity budget - euronews
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+11.6% AMBEA.SS (Ambea SEK38.60, +4.02) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation
+7.6% BON.FP (Bonduelle €11.36, +0.80) -- FY earnings
+7.3% LOOMIS.SS (Loomis SEK316.20, +21.60) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+5.4% PDG.LN (Pendragon £0.35, +0.02) -- Pendragon announces increased terms for the proposed disposal of UK Motor and PVM and strategic partnership with Lithia
+4.5% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.55, +0.02) -- Peel Hunt upgrade
+3.6% RAY.B.SS (RaySearch Laboratories SEK85.90, +3.00) -- order
+3.5% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.44, +0.02) -- granted allowance of its EU patent which will provide protection for MED3000 until 2040 in all European markets
+3.2% SG.IM (SAES Getters €33.90, +1.05) -- SAES Getters approves the guidelines on the use of proceeds from the sale of the Nitinol business for medical applications; announces the closing of the Nitinol business divestment deal; provisional closing price results in a capital gain of ~€698.3M
+3.2% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £6.05, +0.19) -- H1 trading update
+3.0% MULTI.NO (Multiconsult NOK138.00, +4.00) -- contract
+2.9% MYCR.SS (Mycronic SEK232.60, +6.60) -- order
+2.7% BSLN.SW (Basilea Pharmaceutica CHF42.10, +1.10) -- secures FDA acceptance of NDA for antibiotic ceftobiprole
+2.3% PACT.SS (Proact IT Group SEK78.70, +1.80) -- appoints deputy CEO
+2.2% AKH.NO (Aker Horizons NOK4.69, +0.10) -- updates on judicial reorganization for two of its companies in Chile as part of its restructuring process
+1.1% JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich €28.70, +0.32) -- initiated buy at Jefferies
+1.0% PLUS.LN (Plus500 £13.91, +0.14) -- Canaccord Genuity upgrade
Notable Decliners
-51.0% XPP.LN (XP Power £11.56, -12.04) -- trading update
-16.0% WIHN.SW (WISeKey International Holding CHF3.15, -0.60) -- H1 earnings
-15.8% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.01, -0.00) -- corporate update
-15.5% THRU.LN (Thruvision Group £0.25, -0.05) -- H1 tradng update
-8.5% GNRO.FP (GeNeuro €1.30, -0.12) -- H1 earnings
-7.7% LECN.SW (Leclanché CHF0.50, -0.04) -- SIX grants extension until 31-Oct for company to release its H1 report
-7.3% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €1.32, -0.10) -- complete sale of the first wave of 61 points of sale and have extended their partnerships to purchasing and supplies with Groupement Les Mousquetaires
-6.8% GRNG.SS (Gränges SEK95.95, -7.05) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-5.1% FLOW.NA (Flow Traders €16.71, -0.90) -- Oddo downgrade
-4.6% SECARE.SS (Swedencare SEK39.00, -1.86) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-4.4% KAP.LN (National Atomic Company Kazatomprom £42.20, -1.95) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-3.8% AGS.BB (Ageas €37.55, -1.48) -- UBS downgrade
-3.7% STAR.B.SS (Starbreeze SEK0.58, -0.02) -- PAYDAYT 3 update
-3.6% FRE.GR (Fresenius €28.41, -1.05) -- Fresenius to assess whether state aid impacts bonus, dividend payouts - Reuters
-2.3% BP.LN (BP £5.19, -0.12) -- announces second share buyback programme of up to £50M
-2.3% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €116.60, -2.80) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade
-2.2% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK8.21, -0.18) -- Pareto upgrade
-1.9% SDR.LN (Schroders £3.99, -0.08) -- Richard Keers has today stepped down as an Executive Director and CFO
-1.5% ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson SEK52.51, -0.82) -- appoints Jan Sprafke as Chief Compliance Officer
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: SkiStar (SKIS.B.SS), boohoo group (BOO.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Sep manufacturing PMI
Ireland 49.6 vs consensus 49.9, prior 50.8
Netherlands 43.6 vs consensus 47.2, prior 45.9
Russia 54.5 vs consensus 52.0, prior 52.7
Sweden 43.3 vs consensus 48.6, prior revised 45.5 from 45.8
Spain 47.7 vs consensus 46.3, prior 46.5
Switzerland 44.9 vs consensus 40.5, prior 39.9
Italy 46.8 vs consensus 45.7, prior 45.4
France 44.2 vs preliminary 43.6
Germany 39.6 vs preliminary 39.8
Eurozone 43.4 vs preliminary 43.4
Greece 50.3 vs consensus 51.9, prior 52.9
Norway 52.5 vs consensus 47.8, prior 51.4
UK 44.3 vs preliminary 44.2
UK Sep Nationwide House Prices (5.3%) y/y vs consensus (5.7%) and prior (5.3%)
Switzerland Aug Retail Sales (1.8%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior revised (2.5%) from (2.2%)
Italy Aug Unemployment Rate 7.3% vs consensus 7.7% and prior revised 7.5% from 7.6%
Greece Aug Unemployment Rate 10.9% vs consensus 10.7% and prior revised 10.9% from 10.8%
Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate 6.4% vs consensus 6.4% and prior revised 6.5% from 6.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): ($1.89) or (2.08%) to $88.90
€-$ (0.0079) or (0.75%) to 1.0510
£-$ (0.0057) or (0.46%) to 1.2143
€-£ (0.0025) to 0.8655
S&P 500 +0.19%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +0.76%
DAX: +9.53%
CAC: +9.17%
MIB: +17.45%
Stoxx 600: +4.87%
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