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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.64%), Hang Seng (2.69%), ASX(1.28%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 03 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities sharply lower Tuesday. MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan fell to lowest level in almost a year. A sharp selloff in Hang Seng selling off with sharp declines in property developers (though Evergrande up 28%). Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slipped the most in nearly three months. Nikkei and ASX both down sharply, hurt by broad risk-off mood across the region. Taiwan and most southeast Asia also lower. India trading down too. Mainland China and South Korea remain offline for holidays. US futures flat. Europe opened lower. Treasury yields continue to push higher. JGBs were mixed with 10y yields down while yields rose for superlongs. Dollar strongest against AUD and NZD, dollar/yen closer to 150 handle. Crude and industrial metals extending pullbacks with gold nearing year-to-date low.

    • Overall risk sentiment weighed by surging bond yields amid Treasury selloff after hawkish signals from Federal Reserve fueled speculation of further rate hikes to battle inflation and moved discussion to the likely drag on economic growth. In Asia, Hang Seng shares led declines after trading resumed after a long weekend. Stocks did not find any reprieve from recent manufacturing, housing, and tourism spending data. Some thought losses magnified by lower volumes with mainland investors largely absent due to holiday. Morgan Stanley noted global funds trimmed China equity exposure to lowest since 2020.

    • In other developments, RBA left cash rate unchanged at 4.10% as expected. Very few changes in policy statement with central bank repeating some further tightening may be required. Australian inflation rebounded in August, but RBA continues to assess recent data as consistent with inflation returning to target over time. Statement unlikely to sway expectations surrounding near-term policy outlook. Some economists sticking with calls for a November hike while markets pricing in ~90% chance of rate hike by Mar-2024. Japan finance minister Suzuki said government is monitoring foreign exchange movements with "a heightened sense of urgency" with an eye on all possible steps to address weak yen. South Korea's household debt to GDP ratio increased the most in 2022 from 2017 among 26 countries that provided such data to IMF. Indonesia's central bank has intervened in FX market to defend rupiah which has dropped to weakest level since January and is open to buying bonds to manage yields.

    • China Evergrande (3333.HK) jumped 28% in volatile trade on resumption of trading. New World Development (17.HK) shares dropped to lowest level since November 2003 after dividend cut. BYD (1211.HK) sold 431K fully-electric vehicles in Q3, up 23% q/q and is close to overtaking Tesla (TSLA) as the world's top EV seller. China Renaissance (1911.HK) has appointed co-founder Xie Yijing as acting CEO after disappearance of founder Bao Fan who later was "cooperating" in an investigation. Shares remain suspended from trading.

  • Digest:

    • RBA on hold, repeats some further tightening may be required:

      • RBA left cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, as expected. Statement was uneventful with Governor Bullock opting for make few changes. Repeated some further tightening may be required and still assessed recent data as consistent with inflation returning to target over time. While Australian inflation rebounded in August, RBA still projects inflation returning to target in late 2025. Repeated that while labor market remains strong, wages growth is consistent with inflation target. RBA discussed uncertainties around economic outlook from weak household spending, sticky services inflation, lagged effect of rate hikes, and China growth headwinds. However, with RBA maintaining its data-dependent approach, Australian Q3 CPI on 25-Oct will be pivotal in influencing November's rate decision. Views mixed on whether RBA will hike next month while markets pricing in ~90% probability of further tightening by Apr-2024.

    • China Evergrande surges on trading resumption:

      • China Evergrande (3333.HK) spiked as much as 42% on the resumption of trading Tuesday (Bloomberg) though with no specific rationale behind the strength. Follows application to HKEX that provided no more clarity on the situation surrounding the police control of chairman Hui Ka Yan under suspicion of illegal activities. Exchange filing noted there is currently no further pertinent information that needs to be disclosed. Press stories only recalled preceding events. Authorities reportedly investigating whether Hui attempted to transfer assets offshore while the company was struggling to complete unfinished projects. Evergrande still faces a 30-Oct Hong Kong court hearing on a winding-up petition, which could potentially force liquidation. Efforts to gain creditors' approval for offshore debt restructuring were complicated after announcing it was unable to issue net debt due to an investigation into its Hengda Real Estate unit. Some analysts said debt restructuring plan now looks set to falter and risks of liquidation rising (Reuters).

    • Bearish talk remains dominant as yen closes in on 150 per dollar:

      • No major new developments as USD/JPY grinds closer to the key 150 threshold, widely viewed as a potential trigger point for MOF intervention. Finance Minister Suzuki repeated Tuesday that authorities will continue to take all possible measures with a high sense of urgency while again clarifying that volatility is the issue and they are not targeting a specific yen level (Nikkei). Nikkei also discussed how underlying dynamics remain unchanged as yen bears continue to cite Japan-US rate differentials and flows still broadly seen favoring yen selling. Noted better than expected BOJ Tankan results (itself attributed mainly to weak yen) supported equities, though yen selling interest remained dominant despite potential implications for BOJ policy normalization. Main focus of the article was dollar demand among Japanese importers subject to more complex FX hedging requirements than exporters. Noted importers have access to FX forwards, though suggested many were caught off-guard by the magnitude of yen depreciation around the summer vacation period and may add to dollar buying/yen selling flows in anticipation of further declines.

    • Early data shows a bumper holiday travel in China:

      • Bloomberg citing China state media noted tourism revenue during first three days (29-Sep to 1-Oct) of the eight-day Golden Week holiday totaled CNY342B ($47B), a 125% y/y increase. 395M domestic trips were made, jumping 76% y/y and showing strong rebound in tourism demand. SCMP reported 53.4M passengers traveled on various modes on 2-Oct, up 56.4% from fourth day of holiday last year. Box office hit CNY1.2B in first three days, closing in CNY1.5B for whole period in 2022. More than 1M mainland tourists seen visiting Hong Kong during Golden Week (TheStandard) and nearly 160K visitors entered Macao on 30-Sep, highest single-day entry since pandemic (MacaoTourism). A total of 896M trips and CNY783B tourism revenue expected for the eight-day holiday (ThePaper). Noted while property crisis still weighs much on China's growth trajectory, tourism data adds to increases in auto deliveries by local carmakers, suggesting some comeback in consumer appetites.

    • Global M&A activity slowing sharply:

      • Nikkei analysis showed global nominal M&A dropped 24% y/y in Apr-Sep to ~$180T, marking the second straight decline for a fiscal H1. Activity falling off after a record-high in the first half of FY21 that was fueled by post-Covid recovery. Declines also reflect the cloudy economic outlook, while central bank rate hikes raised the cost of capital. Average deal value fell 18%, also attributed to monetary tightening. By region, weakness was led by Europe, down 31%. Article suggested tighter financing conditions was a constraint for private equity funds. US shrank 18%, reflecting fewer number of large deals. China also contracted 17% amid lagging post-Covid recovery tailwinds and real estate sector turmoil. Also cited US policies to restrict China's access to tech poses decoupling risk. Japan bucked the trend with a 16% increase helped by low rates and post-Covid recovery traction. PwC said there was notable interest among large firms in emissions and digital technology reforms. Going forward, article suggested Fed tightening and China macro risks may continue to pose an overhang and M&A may further focus on smaller deals.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8% 500292.IN (HeidelbergCement India): JSW Cement in initial talks to buy Heidelberg's Indian operation

      • +4.2% 0080.MK (Straits Energy Resources): intends to spin-off oil bunkering and shipping related services segment for listing on NASDAQ

      • +3.9% 2157.HK (Lepu Biopharma): sells 15% stake in Hangzhou HealSun Biopharma for CNY125M to China Medical System Holdings

      • +0.3% 6098.JP (Recruit): board approves up-to-13.0M-share buyback via self tender offer at ¥4,148/share

      • +0.2% G07.SP (Great Eastern Holdings): subsidiaries to acquire AML and AMT and enter into distribution partnership for ~MYR1.12B (SG$325M)

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -7.4% 3186.JP (Nextage Co.): reports 9M operating profit ¥14.44B vs year-ago ¥14.76B, profit attributable ¥10.24B vs year-ago ¥10.33B; revises FY guidance downward

      • -4.3% 9863.HK (Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology): reports September deliveries 15,800 vehicles

      • -2% 4901.JP (FUJIFILM): Entegris completes sale of electronic chemicals business to Fujifilm

      • -1.8% 4502.JP (Takeda Pharmaceutical): to voluntarily withdraw EXKIVITY (mobocertinib) in US, other markets after EXCLAIM-2 confirmatory trial misses primary endpoint

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Australia

        • August building approvals +7.0% vs consensus +2.5% and revised (7.4%) in July

        • September ANZ-Indeed job advertisements (0.1%) m/m vs revised +1.7% in August

        • August housing finance +2.2% m/m vs (1.2%) in July

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (521.94) or (1.64%) to 31237.94

      • Hang Seng: (478.44) or (2.69%) to 17331.22

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 3110.48

      • Shenzhen Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 1910.28

      • ASX200: (89.80) or (1.28%) to 6943.40

      • KOSPI: 0.00 or 0.00% to 2465.07

      • SENSEX: (261.08) or (0.40%) to 65567.33

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.06) or (0.04%) to 149.7960

      • $-KRW: +0.39 or +0.03% to 1357.5300

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.61%) to 0.6324

      • $-INR: (0.18) or (0.22%) to 83.1700

      • $-CNY: (0.09) or (1.29%) to 7.2072

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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