Oct 03 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished lower. Utilities, miners, real estate and retail the biggest decliners; media and food/beverage stocks advance. Bonds softer with US 10-year yield adding another 6 bps to recent gains to trade ~4.74%. Bund up 2 bps to 2.94%. 10-year Gilt down up 3 bps to 4.60%. US Dollar little changed versus euro and sterling. Japanese yen sharply higher on speculation of FX intervention by the MoF. Aussie weaker following RBA decision. Oil up. Gold lower. Industrial metals mostly weaker.
Limited macro updates out of Europe today; Switzerland Sep. CPI contracted slightly (0.1%) m/m vs consensus 0.0% whilst Spanish unemployment increased by 19.8K vs estimate for a (12.K) reduction. Update from BRC showed UK retail inflation the lowest level in a year as food price growth eased sharply; EU official said European Commission will assess risk of four critical technologies being weaponized by countries not aligned with bloc's values. Meanwhile, BoE's Mann says UK interest rates to remain permanently higher.
On the corporate front, out of the UK, boohoo group (BOO.LN) shares were amidst the leading decliners in early trading post interim results with H1 revenue 6% below consensus and FY revenue guidance cut; Greggs (GRG.LN) also lower after its Q3 trading update; still in the UK, ADNOC Gas awarded Petrofac (PFC.LN) a >$600M contract. In the DACH region, Sika (SIKA.SW) presented its new "Strategy 2028" at CMD and reports strong YTD sales growth of +12.2%. Media reports suggest Novartis (NOVN.SW) has begun examining the sale of certain diagnostic imaging assets from the Advanced Accelerator Applications unit. Zalando (ZAL.GR) shares were lower after Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for adj. EBIT estimates by 2% and TP to €31.5 from €37 citing tough revenue outlook, as macroeconomic conditions remain bleak, especially in Germany. In the Nordics, Carlsberg (CARL.B.DC) terminates license agreements in Russia; decision follows decree issued on 16-Jul temporarily transferring management of Baltika to the Russian authorities. In France, Vantiva (VANTI.FP) entered into an agreement with CommScope (COMM) to acquire CommScope's Home networks in exchange for a 25% stake in the company; Safran (SAF.FP) acquired Thales' (HO.FP) aeronautical electrical systems activities for an undisclosed sum.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Media (0.13%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.21%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.28%), Insurance (0.70%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.85%), Chemicals (0.86%), Oil & Gas(0.89%), Health Care (1.02%)
Underperformers:
Utilities (2.77%), Basic Resources (2.61%), Real Estate (2.41%), Retail (2.20%), Financial Svcs (1.52%), Construct & Mtls (1.51%), Technology (1.40%), Autos & Parts (1.38%), Telecom (1.36%), Consumer Products and Services (1.16%), Travel & Leisure (1.13%)
Macro:
BoE:
UK:
UK insurers struggling to cover EVs due to rising repair costs, threatening transition from ICEs - CityAM
UK shop price inflation lowest in a year - FT
Sunak's indecision puts Tories on edge ahead of UK election - Bloomberg
India-UK FTA talks hit roadblock - KNN
France reluctant to delay Brexit tariffs on UK-EU electric cars, sources - Reuters
ECB:
ECB's Lane acknowledges disinflation trend, but directs attention to energy prices - Bloomberg
ECB's Holzmann says governing council will discuss ending PEPP reinvestments at coming meetings - Econostream
IATA global air cargo demand (CTK) +1.5% in Aug
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Greece
Greek 2024 draft budget sees 3% growth rate - Kathimerini
Greece ready to help transport Ukrainian grain via its ports, FM tells EU ministers - Kathimerini
Spain:
King Felipe VI on Tuesday ordered caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to attempt to form a government - Politico
Portugal:
Portugal to scrap 'fiscal injustice' of tax breaks for foreign residents - FT
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+37.0% OBD.LN (Oxford BioDynamics £0.47, +0.13) -- reimbursement code for EpiSwitch PSE Test
+25.2% VANTI.FP (Vantiva €0.19, +0.04) -- acquires CommScope's Home networks in exchange for a 25% stake in the company
+20.6% TMTA.LN (TMT Acquisition £0.21, +0.04) -- Belluscura PLC notes agreement reached on key terms regarding possible offer for TMT Acquisition plc
+14.8% BELL.LN (Belluscura £0.35, +0.05) -- agreement reached on key terms regarding possible offer for TMT Acquisition plc; raises ~ £3.32M through the conditional issue of convertible loan notes and shares; CFO steps down
+11.4% SYNACT.SS (SynAct Pharma SEK19.94, +2.05) -- reports additional results from Phase 2b EXPAND study
+10.4% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.30, +0.03) -- provides status update on capital raising process
+8.5% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK174.40, +13.70) -- long-term sportsbook platform and front end agreement with Svenska Spel Sport & Casino
+7.6% GHH.LN (Gooch & Housego £5.38, +0.38) -- H2 trading update
+3.4% CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg DKK904.60, +29.60) -- terminates license agreements in Russia
+3.0% CCT.LN (Character Group £2.75, +0.08) -- FY trading update
+2.1% PAX.SS (Paxman SEK33.70, +0.70) -- announces Palmetto GBA approves first local coverage determination for Scalp Cooling Therapy
+0.9% MER.LN (Mears Group £2.76, +0.02) -- launches share buyback programme of up to £15M
Notable Decliners
-13.0% MDXH.BB (MDxHealth €0.22, -0.03) -- proposed transition to sole listing on NASDAQ
-11.3% ALFA.LN (Alfa Financial Software Holdings £1.65, -0.21) -- terminates engagement with Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. regarding possible offer
-5.3% ABVX.FP (Abivax €14.00, -0.78) -- befazimod ulcerative colitis program with new data to be presented at the UEG Week 2023
-3.7% BWLPG.NO (BW LPG NOK132.20, -5.10) -- announces 8.4M shares block sale of existing shares
-3.5% GRG.LN (Greggs £23.92, -0.86) -- Q3 trading update
-2.6% IRE.IM (Iren €1.74, -0.05) -- acquisition
-2.5% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.71, -0.02) -- $600M contract
-1.8% BOO.LN (boohoo Group £0.31, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-1.7% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK625.70, -11.10) -- US Patent Trial and Appeal Board denies Mylan's request for inter partes review of two Wegovy patents
-1.7% KOF.FP (Kaufman & Broad €26.65, -0.45) -- Q3 earnings
-1.7% ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics €2.02, -0.04) -- Receives Two Grants to Further Explore the Role of Epigenetic Targets in the Treatment of Neuronal Pathologies
-1.5% NOVN.SW (Novartis CHF91.94, -1.43) -- said to consider sale of assets from radiopharma business -- Bloomberg
-1.0% RWS.LN (RWS Holdings £2.40, -0.02) -- acquires ST Communications
-0.5% AFG.NO (AF Gruppen NOK123.00, -0.60) -- contract
-0.5% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK0.62, -0.00) -- update on reassessment of taxable income
-0.5% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €4.46, -0.02) -- termination for the expiry of the shareholders agreement between China National Tire & Rubber Corp and Silk Road Fund
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: Tesco (TSCO.LN), HEXAOM (ALHEX.FP), Bilendi (ALBLD.FP), Tortilla Mexican Grill (MEX.LN)
Trading Update: Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN)
CMD/events: BYGGFAKTA (BFG.SS), Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR) business update call, International Public Partnerships (INPP.LN), Renewi (RWI.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Sep CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and prior +1.6%; (0.1%) m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.2%
Spain Sep Unemployment Change +19.8K vs consensus (12.2K) and prior +24.8K
Greece Sep business expectations in industry 100.5 vs prior 106.4 and year-ago 98.2 - IOBE
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): +$0.83 or +0.93% to $89.65
€-$ (0.0023) or (0.22%) to 1.0457
£-$ (0.0022) or (0.18%) to 1.2064
€-£ +0.0000 to 0.8670
S&P 500 (1.49%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.32%
DAX: +8.38%
CAC: +8.13%
MIB: +15.98%
Stoxx 600: +3.74%
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