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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.80%, Hang Seng +0.10%, Shanghai Composite 0.00% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 05 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities largely rebounded Thursday. Japan outperformed and Topix posted best day since Nov-22. Hong Kong pared most of its early gains to close slightly higher. while mainland China remains offline. ASX higher. South Korea flat. Taiwan higher by a rebound in semi stocks. Southeast Asia mixed. India trading higher. US futures lower, Europe flat after volatile open. Treasury yields higher across the curve though well below 16-year highs hit earlier this week. Dollar in a broad-based retreat, weaker against kiwi, Aussie and won, flat against yen. Crude higher after WTI logging its largest drop in 13-months. Industrial metals lower while precious metals slightly higher.

    • Asian markets took a breather after a firmer Wall Street close overnight. Some reprieve for markets following reversal in bond yields. Rebound chalked up to renewed support for disinflation narrative after September ADP job growth came in softer and crude extended its selloff in over a year. Also suggestions bonds nearing oversold territory given speed and magnitude of latest yield backup. However, bond bears see yields making new highs amid ongoing pressure from higher-for-longer central banks, large budget deficits and expanding supply, upside risks to inflation and rising term premium.

    • In regional developments, Australia's trade surplus widened amid stronger iron ore exports. Early data suggested no intervention by Japan government on yen's rebound from 150 per dollar handle. Citi upgraded China GDP growth forecast, believing economy has bottomed with manufacturing returning to expansion and policy momentum exceeding expectations. South Korean inflation rose by more than forecast to the highest since May, reinforcing expectations the BOK will keep policy restrictive for longer. Philippines inflation also came above expectations, while Thailand CPI eased in September though rating agencies flagged rise of credit downgrade over fiscal deterioration.

    • China (1918.HK) won Hong Kong court approval for offshore dollar debt restructuring plan to become first major Chinese developer to do so. Doosan Robotics (454910.KS) nearly doubled in trading debut after becoming biggest South Korea IPO YTD. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) plans a double-digit price hike in NAND as early as this month. LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) will invest $3B in expanding its Michigan plant after deal to supply power packs to Toyota (7203.JP)

  • Digest:

    • Early data suggests no Japan FX intervention, BOJ buys more JGBs and ETFs:

      • Reuters reported BOJ's (t+1) liquidity projection was well within the expected range, indicating authorities likely did not intervene in the FX market Wednesday. But there were some thoughts the late hour of the sudden move in USD/JPY warrants attention on tomorrow's projection. BOJ was active in other markets Wednesday with five tranches of JGB purchases across the curve totaling JPY1.9T ($12.7B) with about a third targeting 5~10y zone, as the unscheduled portion greatly exceeded market expectations (FT). Noted benchmark 10y yield still rose to 0.783% as markets continue to speculate on the end of negative rates. Broader elevation in 5y and 20y said to reflect growing inability of BOJ to go against the grain. Still, most of the pressure was linked to the selloff in US Treasuries where yields hit fresh 16-year highs. BOJ also purchased JPY70.1B in ETFs, confirming market expectations yesterday as Topix was down more than 2%. Marks the first operation since 14-Mar, thought to be aimed at countering headwinds from higher US yields (Nikkei). Furthermore, BOJ announced a funds-supplying operation against pooled collateral with a term of five years.

    • Regional Asian economies see inflation surprises to upside:

      • South Korea September CPI rose 3.7% y/y, vs consensus +3.5% and +3.4% in prior month, accelerating for a second month and marking fastest annual rise since May. Core CPI rose 3.3% y/y, same as prior month. Reuters cited finance minister Choo Kyung-ho who said inflation would likely stabilize from October with seasonal factors easing. BOK also expected it to come around 3% by year-end. Central bank set to meet in two weeks for rate decision after holding rates steady for five consecutive meetings. Philippines headline inflation rose 6.1% y/y in September, also fastest in four months, above consensus 5.3% and 5.3% in August, on higher food and transport costs. Core inflation eased to 5.9% from 6.1% in August. Accelerating inflation boosts case for BSP to resume tightening when they meet mid-November (Bloomberg). Taiwan September CPI came at 2.93% y/y, vs consensus 2.4% and 2.52% in prior month.

    • Japan snap election speculation continues:

      • Kyodo discussed ongoing speculation among lawmakers that Prime Minister Kishida may call a snap election in the near future. Both ruling coalition and opposition parties are wary of the prospect that Kishida may dissolve the lower house during the extraordinary parliamentary session due to begin 20-Oct, even though he has repeatedly denied the possibility. Observers said that amid low cabinet approval ratings, Kishida's decision may hinge on the outcome of two upcoming national by-elections later this month. Election speculation increased as Kishida had been initially tight-lipped on whether he would submit a FY23 supplementary budget bill during the extra Diet session. But Kishida's confirmation last Friday that he would present the budget proposal was seen lowering the chance of Kishida calling a snap election at the outset of the assembly. Still, article noted Kishida can dissolve the chamber at any time given the next lower house election is not due until the fall of 2025. Hosei University professor Hiroshi Shiratori said Kishida would proceed with an early election if stimulus measures are well-received by voters, translating to an improvement in support ratings.

    • BOJ output gap measure edges closer to positive territory:

      • BOJ estimated output gap narrowed to -0.07% in Q2 following -0.41% in the prior quarter. Marks the smallest reading in the current stretch of 13 straight negative quarters. Components showed labor input gap improved further after turning positive in Q1, while negative capital input gap narrowed. Going forward, Tankan proxy points to added shortages in Q3 and Q4, implying further improvement in the output gap in fiscal H2 that would take the measure into positive territory for the first time since 1Q20. This has been flagged as a key underlying variable to support BOJ's projection for slowing cost-push inflation to stabilize and pick up again reflecting domestic fundamentals. Aligns with recent board member views they might see enough evidence to declare achievement of stable inflation has come into sight over the next six to nine months. Recall September Tankan results were broadly viewed as positive, albeit relatively confined to large firms and domestic demand. BOJ's output gap continues to lag behind Cabinet Office's measure, which turned positive in Q2 following latest GDP figures.

    • Thailand inflation eases in September while rating agencies flag widening fiscal deficit:

      • Thailand September headline inflation rose 0.3% y/y, vs consensus +0.8% and +0.88% in prior month. Core CPI was up 0.63% y/y. Inflation slowed due to lower energy prices from government support measures and decline in food prices. Commerce Ministry also said inflation would slow on q/q basis. CPI print has been below BOT target of 1% to 3% for fifth consecutive month. Bangkok Post noted Governor Sethaput said Thai economic recovery is intact but inflation risks, brought by El Nino weather pattern, could weigh on outlook. Added government policies would contribute to future inflation and acknowledged BOT had differences of opinion on economy with Prime Minister/Finance Minister Srettha while both were listening to each other. Bloomberg added S&P and Fitch said Thai government's plan of cash handouts, loan moratorium for farmers, energy subsidies carry risk of credit downgrade amid prolonger fiscal deterioration and growing doubts on growth sustainability.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +3.5% 3990.HK (Midea Real Estate Holding): reports Jan-Sep contracted sales CNY53.25B; StreetAccount notes year-ago figure of CNY59.54B

      • +2.5% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): signs long-term battery supply agreement with Toyota Motor North America to power electric vehicles in the U.S.

      • +2% 000270.KS (Kia): reports September global sales 261,322 units vs year-ago 249,458 units

      • +1.8% 7974.JP (Nintendo): April-September domestic sales of Nintendo Switch reportedly 2.1M units, +5% y/y

      • +1.6% 9432.JP (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone): Monex Group, NTT Docomo enter into capital and business alliance through sole share-transfer

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -6.3% 6976.JP (Taiyo Yuden Co.): ¥50.0B euro-yen denominated convertible bond due 2030 priced; initial conversion price is ¥4,360/share

      • -0.3% 095340.KS (ISC Co.): SKC completes acquisition of 9.5M ISC shares for KRW522.49B, making it a subsidiary with 45.0% stake

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • S. Korea

        • September CPI y/y +3.7% versus consensus +3.5% and +3.4% in prior month

      • Australia

        • August Trade Balance +A$9.6B versus consensus +A$9000B and +A$7.3B in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 548.48 or +1.80% to 31075.36

      • Hang Seng: 18.03 or +0.10% to 17213.87

      • Shanghai Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 3110.48

      • Shenzhen Composite: 0.00 or 0.00% to 1910.28

      • ASX200: 35.30 or +0.51% to 6925.50

      • KOSPI: (2.09) or (0.09%) to 2403.60

      • SENSEX: 440.23 or +0.67% to 65666.27

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.09) or (0.06%) to 149.0230

      • $-KRW: (3.91) or (0.29%) to 1349.2900

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.38% to 0.6347

      • $-INR: (0.20) or (0.23%) to 83.2540

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1994

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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