Oct 05 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets indicate a higher open with Asian equities rebounding and S&P 500 futures flat following earlier weakness. Nikkei outperforming as momentum builds on other markets. Tech and property stocks driving gains in Hong Kong. Mainland China markets remain closed for Golden Week holiday. Bonds rallying with Treasury curve steepening and Aussie yields down almost 10 bp. WTI crude picking up gains after registering its largest drop in 13-months. Dollar in a broad-based retreat, weakest against Aussie. Some reprieve for markets following reversal in bond yields. Rebound chalked up to renewed support for disinflation narrative after US macro data came in softer and crude extended its selloff from last week's high to more than 10%. Also suggestions bonds nearing oversold territory given speed and magnitude of latest yield backup.
On the agenda for today in Europe, European Political Community (EPC) summit is held in Granada, Spain; event includes 47 countries and participants include EU's von der Leyen. In central banks, ECB hosts conference on Monetary Policy with Riksbank's Breman, BOE's Broadbent panelists at 11:45 CET, de Guindos speech 15:45 CET. Also of note BoE releases its DMP monthly survey. Germany and UK Sep new car registrations. In notable macro releases for today, Germany Aug Trade Balance is due at 7:00 BST, followed by France Aug Industrial Production at 7:45 BST. Germany Sept Construction PMI is out at 8:30 BST followed by UK Sept Construction PMI at 9:30 BST.
Subdued earnings releases for today; Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS), Pennon Group (PNN.LN), GRENKE (GLJ.GR) due to publish trading updates; Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) pending traffic stats and Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN) production numbers. GFT Technologies (GFT.GR), Hyloris Pharmaceuticals (HYL.BB), Karnov Group (KAR.SS), Pandora (PNDORA.DC), Prysmian (PRY.IM) host CMD/ events today. Of note, Alstom (ALO.FP) released prelim H1 revenue after the market close yesterday with sales at €8.30B vs FactSet €8.76B; group also lowered FY FCF outlook but confirmed outlook for organic revenue growth for the 2023/24 fiscal year in excess of 5%.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK:
European leaders' summit marred by conflicts and absences -- FT
Giorgia Meloni turns to Rishi Sunak to take battle against migration beyond EU - The Guardian
Russia scrambles to cover ballooning cost of Ukraine war -- FT
Poland's election: Big hopes but no quick fixes -- Politico
Top company news
Earnings/updates
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- preliminary H1 revenue €8.30B vs FactSet €8.76B [2 est, €8.24-9.28B]. Lowers FY FCF outlook
GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- Q3 EPS €1.07 ex-items vs consensus €1.17
S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology) -- expects 9M EBITDA €230-235M vs year-ago €50M
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- sees EBIT margin target of 26-27% by 2026, up from "around 25%" in 2023 -- udpates on Phoenix strategy
AKRBP.NO (Aker BP) -- Q3 net production 449.8 Mboe/d vs FactSet 447.4 Mboe/d
PRY.IM (Prysmian) -- CMD update: financial targets set for 2027 including EBITDA of €2B(+/-€100M), up from €1.49B in 2022
RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy) -- preliminary Q3 revenue €475M, +67% y/y vs FactSet €444.7M [3 est, €422.2-466M]
GLJ.GR (GRENKE) -- Q3 new leasing business +4.5% y/y to €591.1M vs year-ago €565.5M
MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals) -- updates in the context of recent market announcements and developments
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- prelim Sept production 25.0 mboepd (net)
STSU.NO (Standard Supply) -- Sept TCE $15.6K/day
M&A
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- Suncor Energy (SU.CN) to acquire TotalEnergies' Canadian operations for $1.468B; ConocoPhillips (COP) completes purchase of remaining 50% interest in Surmont from TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd.
CAST.SS (Castellum AB) -- sells 5 properties for ~ SEK 900 M
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- acquires USNet and strengthens its position in the US market within Data Centers
YIT.FH (Yit) -- sells its stake in Sia LiveOn co-investment vehicle in Latvia to Vienna Insurance; terms undisclosed
AFP.SW (Aluflexpack) -- signs agreement to acquire 68% of Helioflex; terms undisclosed
BBED.NA (Beter Bed Holding) -- Torqx Capital Partners provides update on acquisition of Beter Bed Holding: Acceptance Period runs from 5-Oct-23 to 29-Nov-23. Completion of the Offer is expected before year-end
ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- Credit Agricole Italy announces the sale of its 16.6% stake in Generalfinance (GF.IM) through Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.IM) for ~€15M
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- to present new oncology data at ESMO 2023 demonstrating practice-changing innovation in advanced prostate and early breast cancer
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- US Patent Trial and Appeals Board grants Mylan's request to institute inter partes review of Novo Nordisk's '462 semaglutide patent
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- FDA places partial clinical hold on the Innate Pharma's lacutamab IND
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- announces final readout from Phase 1 cohort expansion evaluating NBTXR3 in locally advanced head and neck cancer
Other
SHEL.LN (Shell Plc) -- Shell's dependence on LNG under question by shareholders - FT
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- ING will struggle to achieve climate targets if governments do not set tougher rules to aid decarbonisation - Reuters
EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank) -- appoints Peter Bosek to succeed Willi Cernko as CEO in 2024
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- receives ECB approval for $175M share buyback
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- DKSH converts existing CHF 150M revolving credit facility loan into a sustainability-linked revolving credit facility.
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- provides update on grace periods for senior unsecured notes
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- Metro Bank seeking to raise up to £600M - FT
EXA.FP (Exail Technologies) -- announces four major new contracts for three European navies and one Asian navy; total value of almost €10M
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc) -- to buy from hold at Panmure Gordon
ARJO.B.SS (Arjo) -- to buy from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
HEIA.NA (Heineken) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
LNZ.AV (Lenzing) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
BVIC.LN (Britvic) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
PGS.NO (PGS ASA ) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
Initiations:
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- buy at Berenberg
SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
MANTA.FH (Mandatum) -- neutral at Goldman Sachs
VBG.B.SS VBG Group initiated buy at Nordea
Data
Nikkei +1.57% to 31007.28
Hang Seng +0.61% to 17300.92
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3110.48
S&P futures (3.0) vs prior close of 4297.8
€-$ +0.0013 or +0.12% to 1.0518
$-¥ (0.54) or (0.36%) to 148.58
€-¥ (0.36) or (0.23%) to 156.28
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