Oct 06 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets mostly higher with pan-European indices reversing earlier losses and ending at session higher levels. Greece (1.5%), Norway (0.1%), led underperformers with Finland and Denmark both +1.2%, Germany +1.1% led outperformers.
In geopolitical developments, headlines revolved around US and EU officials negotiating a provisional political agreement to announce an interim steel deal at an 20-Oct summit that would avert the re-imposition of Trump-era tariffs on billions of dollars of transatlantic commerce.
Central bank narrative still in focus. Banque de France chief Villeroy, a moderate dove on the ECB Governing Council, said good figures on inflation and sharp rise in long term borrowing costs suggest no need for further rate hikes at present. Meanwhile, Vice-President de Guindos dismissed this week rate cuts but said getting back to 2% inflation target will not be easy, while Chief economist Lane said more work must be done to bring down inflation, but noted pressures are easing.
From a macro calendar perspective, German factory orders rebounded in August by +3.9% m/m vs consensus for a +1.8% increase after prior (11.3%) drop revised up from (11.7%) initially reported. Meanwhile in the UK, house prices fell again in September according to the Halifax, but pace of monthly decline slows and was less than expected.
In corporate news, Finnair (FIA1S.FH) shares plummeted as company announced plans of rights issue of up to €600M. The group also published additional financial targets for its long-term outlook and decided to bring forward the release of its Q3 interim report. Also out of the Nordics, Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) noted disappointing national budget proposal presented by the Norwegian government, saying it included several elements that affected Hydro's operations in Norway.
In the UK, JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) traded lower on the back of its FY earnings update; Shell (SHEL.LN) posted Q3 prodcution update; De La Rue (DLAR.LN) expectations for FY24 adjusted operating profit remain unchanged in the low £20M range; Quartix Technologies (QTX.LN) cut revenue expectations, to consider reduced ordinary dividend at year end.
In Spain, Repsol (REP.SM) issued a Q3 trading statement indicating an upstream production of 595 Kboe/d vs FactSet 596 Kboe/d and year-ago 549 Kboe/d. In the Netherlands, Philips (PHIA.NA) shares slumped after the FDA in an update said remains unsatisfied with the status of Philips recall of millions of sleep apnea and respiratory devices since 2021.
On M&A front, Metro Bank (MTRO.LN) considering selling £2.3B of £7.5B mortgage book to raise funds and reduce regulatory capital requirements, the FT reported. In addition, press reports suggest talks of a possible takeover of Aviva (AV.LN) by a foreign buyer. Also, Aviva is reportedly among small handful of insurers exploring bids for the UK consumer operations of rival RSA. Elsewhere, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) considering sale of ~25% holding in Seagreen Wind Energy.
The week ahead sees IMF/World Bank annual meeting, G20 finance ministers meeting, IEA and OPEC's monthly oil market reports, minutes of last ECB MPC meeting, Germany and UK Aug industrial production and earnings/updates from Chr. Hansen Holding (CHR.DC), easyJet (EZJ.LN), Givaudan (GIVN.SW), LVMH (MC.FP), OMV (OMV.AV) and TomTom (TOM2.NA).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Retail +2.32%, Technology +1.93%, Insurance +1.80%, Banks +1.63%, Construct & Mtls +1.60%, Financial Svcs +1.58%, Basic Resources +1.50%, Oil & Gas +1.03%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.01%, Travel & Leisure +0.85%,
Underperformers
Food & Beverage (1.82%), Utilities (0.08%), Telecom +0.33%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.35%, Chemicals +0.40%, Media +0.55%, Autos & Parts +0.65%, Health Care +0.75%, Real Estate+0.78%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
ECB
ECB's Schnabel can't rule out more hikes amid inflation risks - Reuters
UK
Labour celebrates 'seismic' win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election - BBC; swing of 20% - Sky News
Calls for Brexit debate could cause policy row at Labour conference - Guardian
Britain's opposition Labour Party wins UK parliamentary seat in Scotland - Reuters
Rishi Sunak's record tax rise to cost workers £40bn - The Times
Ireland
Expansionary Budget 'makes little economic sense', Nevin Economic Research Institute - RTE
Taoiseach slams EU corporate tax proposal that would hit Ireland hardest - Irish Times
Germany
Poland
Polish election race tightens as opposition gains before vote - Bloomberg
Italy
Govt parties moot combining local poll with EP one - Ansa
France
France blocks American takeover of nuclear suppliers - Politico
Ukraine
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+37.3% TRB.LN (Tribal Group £0.72, +0.20) -- Ellucian offers to acquire Tribal Group for 74p per share in cash
+14.9% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.43, +0.06) -- Metro Bank considering selling £2.3B of £7.5B mortgage book to raise funds and reduce regulatory capital requirements - FT
+13.4% OTOVO.NO (Otovo ASA NOK6.70, +0.79) -- enters share purchase agreement with Forte Pv SARL for up to NOK700M portfolio
+12.9% MAIRE.IM (Maire Tecnimont €4.37, +0.50) -- Mediobanca upgrade
+6.1% TRUE.B.SS (Truecaller SEK37.67, +2.18) -- acquisition
+5.8% EMG.LN (Man Group £2.32, +0.13) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+5.7% LOUP.FP (LDC €120.50, +6.50) -- H1 sales
+4.9% AV.LN (Aviva £4.07, +0.19) -- Interest in Aviva rising - London Times
+4.7% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners NOK80.90, +3.65) -- Sept cargo update
+4.1% ORPHA.DC (Orphazyme DKK0.98, +0.04) -- preliminary court approval on US Security class action case; settlement amount $2.5M; outlook unchanged
+4.0% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK121.60, +4.70) -- Sept sales
+3.8% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK171.00, +6.20) -- partnership
+3.3% ALHRS.FP (Hydrogen-Refueling-Solutions €13.64, +0.44) -- FY earnings
+2.7% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF28.55, +0.75) -- two contract wins
+2.3% DLAR.LN (De La Rue £0.62, +0.01) -- trading statement
+2.0% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £25.82, +0.50) -- Q3 update
+1.0% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £14.98, +0.15) -- GSK intends to sell 270M ordinary shares in Haleon
Notable Decliners
-24.6% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €0.39, -0.13) -- planning rights issue of up to €600M; publishes additional financial targets and brings forward release of its Q3 2023 interim report; Sept traffic
-23.8% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £1.53, -0.48) -- FY trading update
-23.2% ICP1V.FH (Incap Oyj €6.38, -1.93) -- FY profit warning
-9.5% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.48, -0.05) -- US patent office notice
-8.5% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.61, -0.06) -- announces initial sales results for 75% of Tender 2 FY 2024
-6.9% PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips €17.28, -1.28) -- FDA update on Philips Respironics recall
-6.7% JDW.LN (JD Wetherspoon £6.50, -0.47) -- FY earnings
-4.9% XPP.LN (XP Power £7.69, -0.40) -- cancels Q2 dividend of 19.0 pence per share
-3.1% FNOX.SS (Fortnox SEK53.68, -1.72) -- initiated underweight at Morgan Stanley
-1.5% SPT.LN (Spirent Communications £0.92, -0.01) -- Numis downgrade
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings:
Sareum Holdings (SAR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Sep Unemployment Rate 2.0% vs prior 2.0%
Denmark Aug Manufacturing Production +0.2% m/m vs consensus +7.5% and prior revised (9.0%) from (10.0%)
Germany Aug Factory Orders +3.9% m/m vs consensus +1.8% and prior (11.7%)
Norway Aug Manufacturing Production +1.5% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior (1.2%)
UK Sep House Prices (4.7%) y/y vs consensus (5.0%) and prior revised (4.5%) from (4.6%) - Halifax release
France Aug Trade Balance (€8.20B) vs consensus (€8.9B) and prior revised (€8.11B) from (€8.09B)
Italy Aug Retail Sales +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and prior +2.7%; (0.4%) m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): ($0.01) or (0.01%) to $82.30
€-$ +0.0039 or +0.37% to 1.0592
£-$ +0.0057 or +0.47% to 1.2250
€-£ (0.0009) to 0.8644
S&P 500 +0.58%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.57%
DAX: +9.38%
CAC: +9.06%
MIB: +17.27%
Stoxx 600: +4.72%
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