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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.04%) to 7491.76, DAX (0.69%) to 15125.25, CAC40 (0.57%) to 7019.99, STOXX 600 (0.27%) to 443.74

Oct 09 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in negative territory, except for Norway. In geopolitics, Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel that was the deadliest since Yom Kippur war 50-years ago. Israeli retaliation is continuing this afternoon after the country officially declared war and vowed to dismantle Hamas' military infrastructure, setting stage for a potentially long and difficult conflict. Hamas' attack adds fresh uncertainty for markets following weeks of volatility driven by a surge in bond yields. Markets have typically looked past previous geopolitical skirmishes, though key concern revolves around potential for a wider conflict that draws in major oil producing nations and threatens supplies. Shares in EU defence companies SAAB.B.SS, RHM.GR, HAG.GR, HO.FP, DSY.FP, BA.LN among top gainers following escalation in the Middle East. Instead, airlines slide as several carriers halted flights to Tel Aviv and oil prices surged. Israel's retaliation strategy expected to be very strong and long-lasting, bringing heightened geopolitical and market volatility. Analysts also see strong chance conflict could spill into Lebanon. Top risk is Israel targeting Iran's nuclear program, disrupting Persian Gulf oil exports, and potentially drawing US into the fray. Iran issue could thus pose growing risks to Democrats' electability in 2024. Goldman Sachs also suggested developments reduce probability of early unwind of Saudi Crude oil production cuts, while Iranian oil production likely to decline

    • In central bank news, ECB President Lagarde said current level of rates will help bring inflation back to 2%. Lagarde reportedly "not pessimistic" about short-term Eurozone growth prospects, though she acknowledged that Germany is a factor weighing on the EU outlook. Lagarde cited the quick decline in inflation, economic reforms and benign gas situation. Comments largely echoed by Vice-President de Guindos, who said on Monday core and headline inflation are expected to continue the downwards trend, although there is some uncertainty on oil prices. However, some thoughts soft-landing scenario faces challenges. In politics, focus on election news including German regional elections (Bavaria and Hesse) that showed all three parties in the federal coalition government are on track to lose support in both states, while the far-right AfD made further gains in the two states. In Hesse, the CDU achieved a landslide victory in the state elections.

    • Macro-data included Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment survey which came in at -21.9 versus consensus -24.0 and prior -21.5. Headline still at very weak levels and situation index came in at -27.0 versus prior -22.0, which was the weakest level since November 2022. Expectations index rose by 4.2 points to -21.0, which was the highest level since April 2023. It highlighted that German economy stubbornly in recession with reading of -39.5, the lowest since July 2020 despite the expectations index up 5.5 points to -22.3. Sentix pointed out that outlook remains weak in wider bloc and Germany and best one can hope for in the near-term is a decrease in negative momentum, rather than a turnaround. Said one factor contributing to this assessment is the perception of the ECB's hands being tied.

    • In M&A news, after few weeks of speculation, Euronav NV (EURN.BB) announced that its two reference shareholders, CMB NV and Frontline plc reached agreement on a transaction comprising CMB to acquire Frontline's 26.12% stake in Euronav for $18.43/sh and Frontline acquiring 24 VLCC tankers from Euronav fleet for $2.35B; in the banking front, Metro Bank (MTRO.LN) agreed to a financing package with investors including Jaime Gilinski Bacal, securing a £325M capital raise, comprising £150M of new equity and £175M of new MREL issuance, alongside £600M of debt refinancing; also, Citigroup sold its China consumer wealth portfolio to HSBC Bank China (HSBA.LN) and - in Italy - the Treasury started the process to select the legal and financial advisers to assist in disposing of its controlling holding in Monte Paschi (BMPS.IM); in Germany, Schaeffler (SHA.GR) offered to acquire Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC.GR) for €91/share in cash and in Spain local press reported that JB Capital is working with Apollo on bid for Vodafone Spain (VOD.LN); in the Netherlands, Nolet and Lucas Bols (BOLS.NA) reached an agreement on a recommended public offer by Nolet for Lucas Bols of €18 per share. On a light reporting front, Croda International (CRDA.LN) issued its Q3 in which it lowered FY profit before tax guidance; earlier in the morning Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) posted Q3 Pilbara iron ore production numbers; TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. (TGS.NO) and OMV (OMV.AV) released their most recent Q3 updates; in Germany, Handelsblatt reported that Varta (VAR1.GR) remains positive despite economic downturn slowing down restructuring measures

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), PGS (PGS.NO), ScS Group (SCS.LN), YouGov (YOU.LN), Investment AB Öresund (ORES.SS) and ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR) will be posting their most recent updates. Macro-data will include UK Sep retail sales monitor - BRC, Italy Aug industrial production, Norway Sep CPI, PPI, Sweden Aug industrial production, Denmark Sep CPI, Netherlands Sep final CPI, Aug manufacturing production and Greece Sep CPI

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Oil & Gas +2.92%, Utilities +0.92%, Telecom +0.81%, Food & Beverage +0.78%, Basic Resources (0.03%), Real Estate(0.06%), Media (0.11%), Health Care (0.13%), Insurance (0.18%)

      • Underperformers: Travel & Leisure (2.37%), Retail (2.01%), Banks (1.44%), Technology (1.30%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.02%), Autos & Parts (0.82%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.80%), Chemicals (0.73%), Construct & Mtls (0.72%), Financial Svcs (0.51%)

    • Macro:

      • Israel declares siege on Gaza as Hamas claims Israeli strikes killed captives (Guardian)

      • How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack (Reuters)

      • Iran May Have Known About Gaza Attack, Says Israeli Minister (BBG)

      • Germany: Scholz coalition battered in Bavaria, Hesse polls (dw)

      • German flights suspended over threat to Iranian plane (Telegraph)

      • France, UK and Germany step up security measures amid fears of attacks against Jewish community (CNN)

      • Strained France-Germany ties slow EU decision making (Reuters)

      • Italy working on corridor for Israeli hostages, to bring back Italians (Ansa)

      • Reeves pledges to 'rebuild Britain' in Labour conference speech (BBC)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +70.1% BOLS.NA (Lucas Bols €17.35, +7.15) -- announces recommended public offer by Nolet of €18 per share

        • +20.8% VTSC.GR (Vitesco Technologies Group €91.00, +15.65) -- SHA.GR offers €91/sh in cash

        • +10.6% HAG.GR (HENSOLDT €27.66, +2.66) -- reaction to Hamas attack on Israel

        • +9.2% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.49, +0.04) -- agrees to financing package with investors including Jaime Gilinski Bacal

        • +8.9% ULTI.NO (Ultimovacs NOK106.40, +8.70) -- receives FDA orphan drug designation for the UV1 cancer vaccine for treatment of Mesothelioma

        • +8.7% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.33, +0.03) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +8.2% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK147.90, +11.20) -- prelim Q3 revenue

        • +6.5% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €249.00, +15.20) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +6.2% AKRBP.NO (Aker BP NOK301.00, +17.50) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +6.0% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK519.00, +29.50) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +5.6% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK359.65, +19.20) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +5.5% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK89.00, +4.60) -- Q3 revenue

        • +4.8% BA.LN (BAE Systems £10.28, +0.47) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +4.8% HO.FP (Thales €134.20, +6.20) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +4.7% LDO.IM (Leonardo €13.55, +0.61) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +4.3% AM.FP (Dassault Aviation €180.60, +7.40) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +3.9% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK454.00, +17.00) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +3.3% SHA.GR (Schaeffler €5.64, +0.18) -- offers to acquire Vitesco Technologies Group for €91/share in cash

        • +3.1% GET.FP (Getlink €14.91, +0.46) -- Betaville rumor that Getlink has attracted takeover interest

        • +3.0% BP.LN (BP £5.21, +0.15) -- reaction to Hamas attack on Israel

        • +2.7% REP.SM (Repsol €14.60, +0.39) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • +2.5% EURN.BB (Euronav €16.73, +0.41) -- CMB to acquire Frontline's 26.12% stake in company for $18.43/sh;

        • +1.7% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.76, +0.01) -- B Capital working with Apollo on bid for Vodafone Spain - Expansion

        • +1.5% AMBU.B.DC (Ambu DKK71.16, +1.02) -- reports preliminary FY revenue DKK4.78B vs FactSet DKK4.79B

        • +0.9% AVIO.IM (Avio €7.67, +0.07) -- launcher took off from French Guiana Space Center at 10.36 PM (local time) and successfully completed VV23 mission

        • +0.1% BITTI.FH (Bittium €3.58, -0.00) -- concludes previously disclosed change negotiations

      • Notable Decliners

        • -37.8% MIND.LN (Mind Gym £0.35, -0.21) -- H1 trading update

        • -12.8% IPX.LN (Impax Asset Management Group £3.96, -0.58) -- Q4 AUM update

        • -8.1% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €11.45, -1.01) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • -7.2% CRDA.LN (Croda International £44.50, -3.45) -- Q3 trading update

        • -7.1% BVC.LN (BATM Advanced Communications £0.24, -0.02) -- expects recent developments in Israel to have no material impact on trading

        • -7.1% VLX.LN (Volex £2.88, -0.22) -- announces it has been the subject of a cyber incident

        • -6.1% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £18.13, -1.18) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • -6.0% BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena €2.46, -0.16) -- Italy starts process to sell Banca Monte Paschi stake - Bloomberg

        • -5.8% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.47, -0.09) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • -5.1% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £4.26, -0.23) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • -4.3% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK207.70, -9.40) -- to acquire Australian veterinary chain VetPartners for more than A$1B (~€600M) - AFR; Dagens Industri out with sell recommendation

        • -4.3% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €7.08, -0.32) -- Israeli airport closures due to Hamas attack

        • -3.6% ANOT.SS (Anoto Group SEK0.38, -0.01) -- CEO to step down

        • -2.0% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.03, -0.00) -- Sector moves following Hamas' attack on Israel

        • -1.9% EGTX.SS (Egetis Therapeutics SEK3.93, -0.08) -- submits MAA for Emcitate for treatment of MCT8 deficiency to the EMA

        • -1.6% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £6.44, -0.11) -- Citigroup to sell China consumer wealth portfolio to HSBC Bank China

        • -1.6% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.26, -0.00) -- Italian Treasury keen to implement plan agreed with KKR to bid for Telecom Italia's NetCo - Reuters

        • -1.4% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $49.39, -0.70) -- Q3 Pilbara iron ore production

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: ScS Group (SCS.LN), YouGov (YOU.LN), Investment AB Öresund (ORES.SS), ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR)

      • Trading Update/Sales: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP), PGS (PGS.NO)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence (21.9) vs consensus (24.0) and prior (21.5)

      • Germany Aug Industrial Production (0.2%) m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.8%)

      • Denmark Aug Trade Balance DKK14.8B vs consensus DKK21.5B and prior revised DKK18.5B from DKK19.1B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Nov 23): +$3.56 or +4.30% to $86.35

      • €-$ (0.0008) or (0.08%) to 1.0545

      • £-$ +0.0009 or +0.07% to 1.2211

      • €-£ (0.0012) to 0.8637

      • S&P 500 (0.18%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.54%

        • DAX: +8.63%

        • CAC: +8.44%

        • MIB: +16.73%

        • Stoxx 600: +4.44%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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