Oct 10 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended notably higher with pan-European indices closing around the best levels of the session. Greece +4.2%, Ireland +3.5%, Spain +2.3% led outperformers whilst Norway +1.1% led underperformers.
Focus on developments in Middle East particularly implications for oil. Israel readying for protracted ground campaign in Gaza to degrade Hamas. Bigger concern is whether Iran becomes entangled, prompting an Israeli or US response that threatens regional crude supply.
Not much new from ECB officials. BoE's Mann reiterated hawkish remarks in comments late Monday. Bank of Italy warns Meloni to exercise extreme prudence on fiscal policy amid worries over impact of higher rates. Bundesbank's Balz speech at 18:30CET at event hosted by Europa-Europe Germany. Also in the agenda today, Annual conf of the Council for Sustainable Development takes place, speakers include Chancellor Scholz at 17:10CET.
Elsewhere, IMF lowered 2024 global growth outlook to +2.9% from +3% and and said baseline forecast for global growth is for it to slow from +3.5% in 2022 to +3.0% in 2023 and +2.9% in 2024. It added that core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.
In corporate news, MDxHealth (MDXH.BB) traded notably higher on the back of its Q3 trading update. In France, EUROAPI (EAPI.FP) shares plummeted as company revised FY23 outlook downwards and suspends 2023-2026 mid-term perspectives.
In the UK, Greencore Group (GNC.LN) shares are notably higher on the back of its trading update and buyback programme announcement; YouGov (YOU.LN) reported FY adjusted EPS 40.5p vs FactSet 38.5p and says trading for current financial year has started off in line with expectations; Calnex Solutions (CLX.LN) shares plummeted on the back of its trading update.
Out of the Nordics, Novozymes (NZYM.B.DC) and Chr. Hansen announced new organizational structure to take effect no later than Q4 of 2023 or in Q1 of 2024; PGS ASA (PGS.NO) reported prelim Q3 revenue ~$168M vs FactSet $194.1M; AarhusKarlshamn (AAK.SS) shares were notably up on the back of its Q3 trading update.
On M&A front, Kingspan Holdings (KRX.ID) announced mandatory cash offer for Nordic Waterproofing Holding (NWG.SS) at price of SEK 160/share in cash. Elsewhere, the FT published an interview with Metro Bank's new major holder Jaime Gilinski Bacal seing opportunities to use Metro as a base for acquisitions.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Travel & Leisure +3.87%, Basic Resources +2.89%, Technology +2.67%, Autos & Parts +2.50%, Utilities +2.50%, Ind Goods & Svcs +2.40%, Chemicals +2.38%, Banks +2.33%, Construct & Mtls +2.32%, Persnl & HHold Goods +2.30%, Retail +2.26%,
Underperformers
Health Care +1.16%, Oil & Gas +1.17%, Telecom +1.23%, Insurance +1.27%, Media +1.72%, Food & Beverage +1.78%, Financial Svcs +1.89%, Real Estate+1.94%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
IMF
IMF warns of stubborn inflation and Weaker Global Growth in 2024 - Bloomberg
EU
ECB
Inflation to still land at around 2 pct by 2025 despite violence in Israel, ECB's Villeroy - franceinfo release
Gas
Baltic gas pipeline leak 'likely caused by external activity' says Finland's president - euronews
UK
Ireland
Ireland lays out plans for 100 billion euro sovereign wealth fund - Reuters
Plans for €100bn Irish sovereign wealth fund to 'future proof' public finances - Irish Times
Ministry of Defence strategy statement 2023-26 - release; document; speech
Russia
Putin could restart banned nuclear tests as Russian parliament ordered to review treaty - Independent
Turkey
Turkish airbnb-style rentals face tougher rules amid rent crisis - Bloomberg
Nordics
Nordic inflation undershoots forecasts - FT
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+23.9% YOU.LN (YouGov £8.55, +1.65) -- FY earnings
+21.7% GNC.LN (Greencore Group £0.84, +0.15) -- trading update; share buyback; HSBC upgrade
+13.3% TET.LN (Treatt £4.80, +0.57) -- trading update
+12.0% FYB.GR (Formycon €56.20, +6.00) -- updates on Ranibizumab Biosimilar FYB201/CIMERLI US market share
+11.7% MDXH.BB (MDxHealth €0.26, +0.03) -- prelim Q3 revenue
+11.2% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK18.91, +1.91) -- marketing authorization for Sedaconda (isoflurane) in the United Kingdom
+10.1% HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma SEK36.32, +3.32) -- HNSA-5487 study results
+9.2% PHXM.FP (Phaxiam Therapeutics €4.75, +0.40) -- trial update
+8.7% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €9.13, +0.73) -- has sold 420MW solar plant to Newave Energia
+7.8% AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn SEK205.00, +14.80) -- reports preliminary Q3 operating profit SEK1.14B vs FactSet SEK874.6M
+7.4% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €23.90, +1.64) -- Court of Appeal in London rules in favor of Fnac Darty in proceedings relating to disposal of Comet
+6.8% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £6.01, +0.38) -- Kantar Worldpanel latest UK grocery share figures
+6.0% KTN.GR (Kontron €19.14, +1.08) -- contract
+5.8% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £6.55, +0.36) -- initiated outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
+4.4% ELIS.FP (Elis €16.99, +0.72) -- BW Gestão de Investimentos to acquire Crédit Agricole Assurances' entire 6% stake
+4.3% CGS.LN (Castings £3.40, +0.14) -- trading update
+3.4% TEL2.B.SS (Tele2 SEK85.24, +2.84) -- Redburn Atlantic upgrade
+3.4% SWED.A.SS (Swedbank SEK205.70, +6.80) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+2.4% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.51, +0.01) -- Metro Bank's new major holder Jaime Gilinski Bacal sees opportunities to use Metro as a base for acquisitions - FT
+2.2% PYRUM.NO (Pyrum Innovations NOK460.00, +10.00) -- to build a Pyrum pyrolysis plant in the Czech Republic together with a Czech energy group
+2.2% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF2.10, +0.04) -- milestone achievement
+2.1% ARISE.SS (Arise SEK33.75, +0.70) -- Q3 power production
+1.8% AGAT.DC (Agat Ejendomme DKK1.98, +0.03) -- Chairman to step down
+1.5% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF36.94, +0.55) -- UBS downgrade
Notable Decliners
-58.8% EAPI.FP (Euroapi €5.00, -7.15) -- lowers FY guidance; suspends 2023-2026 mid-term perspectives; BNP Paribas Exane and Oddo downgrades
-30.2% CLX.LN (Calnex Solutions £0.66, -0.29) -- trading update; now expects revenues for FY24 to be in the region of 20-30% below current market expectations
-10.7% ENENTO.FH (Enento Group €18.22, -2.18) -- lowers FY guidance
-5.0% PGS.NO (PGS ASA NOK9.02, -0.48) -- prelim Q3 revenue
-4.5% YIT.FH (Yit €1.91, -0.09) -- Inderes downgrade
-1.6% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.02, -0.00) -- responds to market speculation regarding boardroom changes
-1.3% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €6.44, -0.09) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Claranova (CLA.FP), Vilmorin & Cie (RIN.FP), Netcall (NET.LN), Sanderson Design Group (SDG.LN), Eneraqua Technologies (ETP.LN), Dustin Group (DUST.SS), Bang & Olufsen (BO.DC), CropEnergies (CE2.GR),
Data:
Economics:
Netherlands
Sep CPI +0.2% y/y vs preliminary +0.2%
Aug Manufacturing Production (0.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.7% and prior revised (0.7%) from (0.6%)
Denmark Sep CPI +0.9% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and Prior +2.4%
Norway
Sep PPI (29.3%) y/y vs consensus (34.0%) and prior (37.4%)
Sep CPI +3.3% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and prior +4.8%
Sweden Aug Industrial Production +4.7% y/y vs consensus (3.6%) and prior revised to (5.1%) from (4.0%)
Italy Aug Industrial Production (4.2%) y/y vs consensus (5.0%) and prior revised (2.3%) from (2.1%); +0.2% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior revised (0.9%) from (0.7%)
Greece
Aug Industrial Production (0.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (1.9%)
Sep CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +2.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): ($0.53) or (0.61%) to $85.85
€-$ +0.0045 or +0.43% to 1.0613
£-$ +0.0038 or +0.31% to 1.2277
€-£ +0.0010 to 0.8645
S&P 500 +1.05%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.37%
DAX: +10.77%
CAC: +10.64%
MIB: +19.45%
Stoxx 600: +6.49%
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