Oct 10 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to advance at the open amidst Asian equities mostly higher Tuesday. Japan markets outperforming after resuming trade following Monday public holiday. Tech and property stocks driving gains in Hong Kong, Mainland China markets extending Monday's declines. S&P 500 futures edging higher afterhours.
Markets remain attentive to developments in Middle East, particularly implications for oil. Israel readying for protracted ground campaign in Gaza to degrade Hamas. Bigger concern is whether Iran becomes entangled, prompting an Israeli or US response that threatens regional crude supply. Crude options skew saw biggest gain since Mar-2022. However, early takeaways noted spillover risks limited for time being.
Today's agenda sees Ireland's finance minister present Budget 2024 ~13:00BST; post budget assessments include NERI (Thu). IMF releases report on global economic outlook. Annual conf of the Council for Sustainable Development, speakers include Chancellor Scholz at 17:10CET. EU's McGuinness speech at 9:35CET at event on sustainable finance hosted by EU. Norway's defence minister hosts meeting Gram hosts meeting on the work on the new long-term plan for the defence sector. UK Labour Party's Kier Starmer speech at party conf. EU Parliaments' Foreign Affairs Committee will discuss Saturday's violent terror attack against Israel and its consequences for the wider region at 10:00CET. Joint press conference by Chancellor Scholz and President Macron at 11:15CET following conclusion of French-German Council of Ministers two-day meeting
In Central Banks, Bundesbank's Balz speech at 18:30CET at event hosted by Europa-Europe Germany. BOE publishes FPC meeting minutes at 10:30BST. Latvia's Central Bank co-hosts Latvia Fintech Forum. ECB's Lagarde speech at 14:00CET at annual meeting of the IMF/World Bank
Macroeconomic releases include: Netherlands Sep CPI +0.2% y/y vs preliminary +0.2% and Netherlands Aug Manufacturing Production (0.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.7% and prior revised (0.7%) from (0.6%), UK Sep retail sales monitor +2.8% vs consensus +2.0% and prior +4.3% - BRC . Also due today, Italy Aug industrial production, Norway Sep CPI, PPI, Sweden Aug industrial production, Denmark Sep CPI, Netherlands Sep final CPI, Aug manufacturing production, Greece Sep CPI, Aug industrial production.
On the corporate front, LVMH (MC.FP) due to report after the market close tonight. Enento Group (ENENTO.FH), adjusted its 2023 guidance for net sales development due to weaker than expected performance in the Consumer Insight business area during Q3. In France, Maisons du Monde (MDM.FP) announced an adjustment of its annual objectives due to a deterioration in consumer confidence observed in Europe, affecting overall non-food consumption for H2 of the year. Still, in France, The board of EUROAPI (EAPI.FP) revised its FY23 outlook downwards and suspended 2023-2026 mid-term perspectives. ABOUT YOU (YOU.GR) reports Q2 Adj EBITDA (€12.9M) vs FactSet (€12.4M)]; for the FY expects group revenue growth in the lower half of the previous guidance range of +1% to +11%.
Politics/Macro/World News
Israel PM warns Gaza action only just begun as Hamas threatens hostages - BBC
'Third wave' of inflation looming as oil prices surge - The Telegraph
BOE's Mann Calls for 'Aggressive' Policy to Tackle Inflation - Bloomberg
EU plans anti-subsidy probe into Chinese steelmakers - FT
France Resists Recession With Meager Growth, Central Bank Says - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus reports Sep gross orders 23 aircraft, deliveries 55 aircraft
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- revises FY23 outlook downwards; suspends 2023-2026 mid-term perspectives and announces conf call
MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde) -- announces adjustment of 2023 annual objectives taking into account degraded non-food consumption environment
ALPIX.FP (Pixium Vision) -- announces opening of safeguard proceedings by the Commercial Court of Paris
ENENTO.FH (Enento Group) -- adjusts its FY23 net sales guidance downward
YOU.GR (ABOUT YOU Holding) -- reports Q2 Adj EBITDA (€12.9M) vs FactSet (€12.4M) [4 est, (€15.6)-(10M)]; narrows guidance for current financial year
Also reporting today
Earnings: ScS Group (SCS.LN), YouGov (YOU.LN), Investment AB Öresund (ORES.SS)
Trading Update/Sales: LVMH (MC.FP), PGS (PGS.NO)
M&A
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- Metro Bank's new major holder Jaime Gilinski Bacal sees opportunities to use Metro as a base for acquisitions - FT
UN01.GR (Uniper) -- commences sale process for district heating business - Handelsblatt (9-Oct, 13:31 CET)
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- acquires the New Vehicle Customer Study from InMoment; price not disclosed
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- has sold 420MW solar plant to Newave Energia (terms undisclosed)
SZX1.GR (San Leon Energy) -- San Leon announces termination of its proposed transactions with Midwestern Oil & Gas Company Limited
SLE.LN (San Leon Energy) -- near deal for $185M investment at 30p/share - Sky News
STF.FP (Stef) -- signs agreement to acquire TransWest; terms undisclosed
EGLA.IM (EuroGroup Laminations) -- completes the acquisition of DS4 S.p.A. (post EU close 9-Oct)
ALVIV.FP (Visiativ) -- acquires 1Life; terms not disclosed
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Genentech's Vabysmo Maintained Vision Improvements With Extended Treatment Intervals Up to Four Months for People With Retinal Vein Occlusion (RVO) in Phase III Trials
PHXM.FP (Phaxiam Therapeutics) -- announces high coverage performance of its two anti-Staphylococcus aureus phages over clinical strains
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- announces promising overall results from the first study of HNSA-5487 in humans
COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals) -- announces submission of Winlevi to the European Medicines Agency (EMA)
CRNA.O.SS (Circio Holding) -- Circio Holding, Neoregen Biotech enter collaboration for delivery of novel circular RNA therapeutics using NICT technology
Other
DSFIR.NA (DSM-Firmenich) -- achieves regulatory clearance in China for two HMO ingredients for early life nutrition
ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank) -- NLFI announces trading program finalized, bringing stake in ABN AMRO to 49.5%
ELIS.FP (Elis) -- BW Gestão de Investimentos to acquire Crédit Agricole Assurances' entire 6% stake in Elis
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- announces securing of two design wins with combined volume of approximately €100M
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CHR.DC (Chr. Hansen Holding) -- upgraded to buy from hold at DnB Markets
NZYM.B.DC (Novozymes) -- upgraded to buy from hold at DnB Markets
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
VPLAY.B.SS (Viaplay Group) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
CRDA.LN (Croda International) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank) -- to reduce from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
ADEN.SW (Adecco Group) -- to sell from buy at UBS
FDR.SM (Fluidra) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- to sell from buy at DnB Markets
YIT.FH (Yit) -- to sell from reduce at Inderes
Initiations
MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk) -- equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
COTY.FP (Coty) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreu
Others
BOLS.NA Oddo recommends Lucas Bols holders accept offer; prior rating was outperform
Data
Nikkei +2.48% to 31763.62
Hang Seng +1.03% to 17698.52
Shanghai Composite (0.58%) to 3078.91
S&P futures +2.5 vs prior close of 4368.8
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0566
$-¥ +0.18 or +0.12% to 148.69
€-¥ +0.16 or +0.10% to 157.10
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