Oct 11 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly higher Wednesday. MSCI Asia-Pac ex Japan at two-week high led by South Korea on tech results, Hang Seng also higher as growth sectors surged. Mainland China stocks also caught a bid. Gains in Taiwan more subdued as it caught up post holidays, Australia closed higher. Southeast Asia mostly higher ex Singapore. India extended early gains to reach three-week highs. Japan closed mixed with Nikkei higher but Topix a little lower. US futures unchanged, Europe mixed in early trades. US dollar flat, yen, AUD and yuan all a little weaker. Treasury yield curve steepening with 10Y falling to two-week low. Crude blends mixed, precious and industrial metals also inched higher.
Asia stocks received a boost from news post the close Tuesday that Beijing was considering raising the budget deficit and issuing new bonds to stimulate the economy despite some brokers urging caution on the news. Hong Kong's growth sectors benefitted the most although all sectors on the Hang Seng were higher. Lower global bond yields also helped equities rally following more dovish comments from Fed members; Fed Fund Futures now pricing in an 84% chance of the Fed holding steady at its next meeting on 1 Nov. A slightly lower US dollar and a steadying of oil prices following the weekend Israel shock also supporting. The risk-on sentiment further underlined by better-than-expected earnings in South Korea, leading the Kospi to outperform the region.
Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan manufacturer sentiment unchanged with firms experiencing cost pressures. BOJ reportedly weighing another upgrade to near-term CPI forecasts. RBA Assistant Governor Kent reiterated some further tightening may be needed as there remain lags in policy transmission. China vehicle sales rose 9.5% y/y in September helped by various incentives in latest sign of economic activity uptick. Ahead today, US PPI print, Fed minutes and more Fed and ECB speakers.
Softbank (9984.JP) will price ¥120B ($800M) of bond-type class shares at an annual dividend rate of 2.5%, the low end of its marked range. Xpeng (9868.HK) said its vice president Li Feng had been suspended pending a probe into alleged corruption. LG Energy Solutions (373220.KS) reported higher-than-expected quarterly results thanks to a tax break in the US. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) reported a 78% slide in Q3 profits to KRW2.4T ($1.8B) as sales fell 13%. Kia Corp (000270.KS) unionized workers to go on partial strike following stalling of wage and retirement talks. Siam Cement (SCC.TB) will IPO its SCG Decor unit following approval by the Thailand regulator.
Digest:
BOJ seen raising inflation forecasts again:
Kyodo sources said BOJ considering upward revision of FY23 inflation forecast to near 3% from 2.5% in the October Outlook Report. Cited broader than expected price hikes, rising crude oil prices and yen depreciation. Recalled BOJ Tankan output prices remain elevated as cost passthrough continues. Board members also expected to discuss FY24/25 projections, which currently look for inflation to moderate back below the 2% target. Furthermore, they might consider upgrading FY23 GDP growth forecast from current 1.3%. Article was consistent with economist predictions, supporting the case for policy normalization. Recall that latest MPM discussions showed growing debate over whether conditions to achieve price stability are coming into sight, mainly reflecting views of a couple of inflation bulls who are now suggesting the need to begin preparations for the exit strategy. Yet board consensus remains cautious as Governor Ueda has highlighted extreme uncertainty as justification for maintaining easing. Sustainability of wage growth still under debate as they await the results of next year's shunto wage talks for more conclusive evidence.
China car sales improve in latest sign of economic uptick:
China vehicle sales rose 5.0% y/y in September, second consecutive month of growth in latest sign of modest uptick in economic activity following positive retail sales and industrial production data for September. Sales increase helped by tax incentives for EVs and other environmentally friendly cars, increased discounts. Sales of EVs rose 10.7% y/y, CPCA said. In first nine months, collective sales of autos rose 8.2% y/y versus 4.4% in same period last year. EV sales rose 37.5% in same period. Meanwhile, reports yesterday government was considering raising budget deficit to issue new bonds met with mixed response by brokers, with some saying it would represent a sea change in fiscal policy by government but was welcome (Bloomberg). However Goldman Sachs said move was unlikely given nine other additional measures government could take without raising deficit and were less political.
South Korea stocks outperform on strong earnings:
Solid quarterly results from Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) propelling Kospi to outperform Asia peers Wednesday. SEC saw Q3 operating income drop to KRW2.4T ($1.8B) on a 13% slide in sales, roughly in line with analyst estimates, but strong relative improvement from Q2's 95% income slide. Analysts quoted by Bloomberg said worst for memory chip sector now over, Samsung and other South Korea chip producers such as SK Hynix (000660.KS) to benefit from AI-related boom, and exemption from US to supply Chinese factories with advanced chip-making machines. SEC stock up around 4%, SK Hynix also strong. LG Energy Solutions up around 7% after reporting quarterly operating profit of KRW731.2B vs KRW637.4B estimate, helped by US tax credit and despite revenue missing estimates. Renewable energy stocks also notably higher on reports domestic emission price-linked ETNs and ETFs to be launched next year (Chosun).
Asian equities see large foreign outflows in September:
Reuters reported Asian equities suffered heavy foreign outflows in September with data from South Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam showing net outflow worth $11.26B of equities last month, biggest since June 2022. Attributed to concerns for "higher-for-longer" rates in US and corresponding surge in Treasury yields. Cited Goldman strategist that correlation between US rates and Asian markets turning more negative as rising rates weigh adversely on stock returns. Added war between Israel and Hamas adding renewed pressure on sentiment, especially higher oil prices might complicate regional inflation landscape, which has surprised to upside lately due to rises in energy and food prices. For mainland China, foreign investors sold nearly CNY37.5B ($5.14B) in September on net basis, narrowing from record selling of CNY90B in August. Selling continued for first two trading days in October after Golden Week break while spending during holiday fell short of official forecast and persistent housing sector woes. Bloomberg added MSCI benchmark for EM equities slipped to weakest-ever level relative to S&P500 going back to 1987, with selloff since July wiping out $1.8T of shareholder wealth.
Japan markets shrug off interbank payments system glitch:
TSE banking sector index steady Wednesday despite news that the Japanese Banks' Payment Clearing Network (Zengin System) suffered a system failure yesterday, preventing 11 financial institutions from conducting interbank remittances with still no ETA on a fix (Nikkei). Issue was detected after a system equipment update during the long weekend. Total 1.4M transactions were affected, including some major domestic banks as well as JPMorgan. Mitsubishi UFJ (8306.JP) is limiting new transactions in the meantime while payments from other banks are expected to be delayed. Resona Bank (8308.JP) signaled settlements will be delayed until next day or later. Backup measures are being implemented to clear the backlog and some 400K transactions have been processed. This marks the first event in its history since 1973. Disruption coincides with elevated transfers following the long weekend and preferred transaction dates on the 5th and 10th of the month.
Notable Gainers:
+15.1% 039490.KS (KIWOOM Securities Co.): to maintain shareholder return rate of 30%+ for 3 years
+7.3% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): reports preliminary Q3 operating profit KRW731.2B vs StreetAccount KRW637.38B
+4.1% 051910.KS (LG Chem): signs KRW2.862T contract to supply cathode materials for EVs to Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America
+0.5% 3086.JP (J. FRONT RETAILING Co.): reports Q2 sales revenue ¥98.18B vs year-ago ¥87.22B, EBIT ¥9.51B vs year-ago ¥5.68B
+0.2% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): to divest its entire stake in Brazilian units for KRW480.53B
+0.1% 8630.JP (Sompo): issues interim report on response of Sompo Japan Insurance Co., to fraudulent insurance claims related to Big Motor
Notable Decliners:
-6.5% 600958.CH (Orient Securities): clarifies on media reports regarding senior executives' resignations, Zhejiang King IPO
-4.0% 1970.HK (IMAX China Holding): shareholder vote fails to approve privatization by IMAX Corporation
Data:
Economic:
Japan October
Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +4 vs +4 in prior month
Service sector index +24 vs +23 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 189.98 or +0.60% to 31936.51
Hang Seng: 228.37 or +1.29% to 17893.10
Shanghai Composite: 3.72 or +0.12% to 3078.96
Shenzhen Composite: 5.52 or +0.29% to 1906.85
ASX200: 47.80 or +0.68% to 7088.40
KOSPI: 47.50 or +1.98% to 2450.08
SENSEX: 369.14 or +0.56% to 66448.50
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.03 or +0.02% to 148.7490
$-KRW: (2.40) or (0.18%) to 1340.4200
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.23%) to 0.6413
$-INR: (0.07) or (0.09%) to 83.1690
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.04% to 7.2984
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