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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.75%, Hang Seng +1.93%, Shanghai Composite +0.94% as of 04:10 ET

Oct 12 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended up almost everywhere Thursday. Hong Kong led the region with strong gains in financial and banking stocks, mainland indices saw gains although not as sharp. Seoul and Taipei higher, Australia ended only a few points up. Most of Southeast Asia higher ex Thailand, India flat. Japan saw its fifth consecutive day of gains. US futures higher, Europe opened with fresh gains. US dollar lower again but Asia currencies did not take advantage, yuan not reacting to China bank news either. Treasury yield curve steepening, JGB yields lower. Crude higher following overnight dip, industrial metals seeing gains, gold higher.

    • Reports post Wednesday's close that China's sovereign wealth fund has bought stakes in the country's 'big four' banks improved regional market sentiment, already underpinned by Tuesday's news that a wider stimulus programme was ready to be financed by Beijing. Although some skepticism remains over both plans, investors took the more active involvement of central government as a strong positive. Nevertheless, doubts remain over the fragility of the property sector with Reuters highlighting developers are struggling to negotiate restructuring agreements with offshore creditors.

    • Elsewhere in Asia, stocks carrying on momentum from a late rally on Wall Street that came as yields declined further. Minutes from September FOMC meeting showed members agreed to proceed carefully on rates, offsetting stronger-than-expected PPI. In Asia, Japan PPI inflation fell to lowest since early 2021 but core machinery orders extended its recent decline. BOJ's Noguchi noted import-driven cost pressures are abating while stressing need to ensure sustained wage growth. New Zealand food inflation slowed to its weakest in 14-months.

    • Ahead, US CPI later tonight, which is forecast to show unchanged core inflation that takes annualized rate down to lowest since Sep-21 although several analysts flagged upside risk.

    • Honda Motor (7267.JP) and Mitsubishi Corp (8058.JP) considering a joint venture to plug EVs into Japan's main grid. Bank of China (3988.HK), Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK), China Construction Bank (939.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) all rose on reports a China state fund had increased its stake in each. Xiaomi (1810.HK) has held talks with several automakers over potential production partnerships. Samsung SDI (006400.KS) and Stellantis (STLAM.IM) via their joint venture StarPlus will invest more than $3.2B to build a second EV battery plant in the US. Liontown Resources (LTR.AU) said it would extend a due diligence period for Albermarle (ALB) however privately owned Hancock Prospecting said it had increased its stake in Liontown to 19.9%, potentially blocking a deal.

  • Digest:

    • China state fund increases stakes in biggest banks, plans to buy more in next six months:

      • Central Huijin Investment, a unit of SWF China Investment Corp, increased its stake in country's biggest banks for first time since 2015. It bought CNY477M ($65M) worth of A-shares in Bank of China (3988.HK), Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK), China Construction Bank (939.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) and said would further increase holdings over next six months. Increment is around 0.01% in each bank, which analysts noted though modest yet symbolic and showed government's desire to maintain market stability (Bloomberg). CICC analyzed six previous occasions when state fund increased stakes in biggest banks from 2008 to 2015 and said all except 2013 saw prices of these banks rose around 10% in next one to three months after event. Adding state fund's purchase not only brings in additional funds but also helps restore investor confidence. View echoed in state-owned financial newspapers with Securities Times and Shanghai Securities News hailing move as "market booster".

    • China bans brokerages from accepting new mainland clients for offshore trading:

      • Reuters cited a CSRC document and several sources indicating China has for the first time issued a notice prohibiting domestic brokerages and their overseas units from taking on new mainland clients for offshore trading. New investments by existing mainland clients are also to be "strictly monitored" to prevent investors bypassing China's foreign exchange controls. Measure seen as latest ploy to control capital outflows amid weakness in the domestic economy and yuan. Article noted it was not clear when the new directive was effective, but sources believe implementation would be immediate. Notice also ordered the removal of apps and websites soliciting mainland clients. Story recalled cases in May when two online brokerages -- Futu, UP Fintech -- announced the removal of their apps in China amid government scrutiny of data security and capital outflows.

    • BOJ's Noguchi says sustainability of wage momentum is key:

      • In a speech, board member Noguchi said inflation pressures stemming from import prices due to global inflation finally showing signs of coming to an end, while also acknowledging core inflation running higher than expected as indicated by Outlook Report forecast revisions. Cited ongoing cost passthroughs spreading mainly in food and daily necessities. Reiterated board's consensus that CPI inflation expected to decline towards fiscal H2 as this factor gradually wanes. In order to achieve price stability after this phase has passed, stressed the need for nominal wage growth to clearly exceed 2% on a trend basis in order to dispel Japan's deep-rooted norm of zero price/wage growth. On this front, described this year's shunto negotiations yielding the biggest pay raises in 30 years as a groundbreaking event. Defined the BOJ's mission is to see positive real wage growth as soon as possible through persistent easing. Also explained past YCC refinements were not meant to curtail easing, but rather reflects the need for flexible implementation as rigid yield suppression would inevitably lead to curve distortion. Suggested a worst-case scenario in which aggressive speculative trading to test the upper bound would render BOJ unable to maintain YCC.

    • Japan PPI inflation eases more than expected, machinery orders slightly miss:

      • CGPI rose 2.0% y/y in September, below consensus 2.4%. Follows revised 3.3% in the previous month and marks the lowest since early 2021. Import prices continue to fall at double-digit rate for the fourth straight month, both in yen and local currency terms. Momentum easing in most categories, particularly in upstream sectors including petroleum & coal products. Recall BOJ board members have acknowledged easing cost-push pressures, albeit normalization progress has been slower than expected. Core machinery orders fell 0.5% m/m in August vs expectations of 0.6% growth and extends 1.1% decline in July. Main drag came from nonmanufacturing (finance & insurance) even though most subsectors were positive (led by leasing, real estate). Outweighed modest bounce in manufacturing, also driven by minority of subsectors (chemicals, maritime vessels). Core Q3 trajectory remains roughly in line with survey projection of a 2.6% q/q decline. Machinery orders have not affected widely accepted optimism on the capex outlook, reinforced by solid FY plans in the September BOJ Tankan survey.

    • Bond markets stabilizing as yields swing lower:

      • Global bond markets extending rebound following a relentless backup in yields over recent weeks. Downshift in yields attributed to dovish-leaning Fedspeak with multiple officials arguing recent tightening of financial conditions strengthens case to proceed cautiously on rates. Bear steepening has partly reversed with rally more pronounced at the long end of the curve. Market have adjusted rate expectations with CME's FedWatch showing futures pricing in only 10% chance of another rate hike by year-end while 2024 rate cut expectations have firmed. Other bond markets have strengthened alongside Treasuries, reflecting dovish repricing more broadly. Disinflation traction seems to have found some support from oil's pullback and continued moderation in US and Japan PPI inflation. Oversold conditions and haven flows also mentioned as supportive factors.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.2% 268.HK (Kingdee International Software Group): provides quarterly business development update; Kingdee Cloud subscription annual recurring revenue CNY2.67B, +40% y/y

      • +4.7% 006400.KS (Samsung SDI): Stellantis, Samsung SDI announce Kokomo, Indiana as site for second battery manufacturing facility in US; StarPlus Energy JV will invest over $3.2B to co-locate new battery plant with gigafactory currently under construction

      • +3.1% 1810.HK (Xiaomi): reportedly holds talks with automakers on potential production partnerships

      • +2.8% 2382.HK (Sunny Optical Technology (Group)): reports September optical handset lens set shipments 111.7M, +16.9% y/y

      • +2.8% 8267.JP (AEON Co.): reports H1 revenue ¥4.711T vs year-ago ¥4.487T, operating profit ¥117.62B vs year-ago ¥95.88B

      • +2.5% 7267.JP (Honda Motor): reportedly in talks with Mitsubishi Corp to establish JV next year to plug EVs into main grid

      • +0.1% 2454.TT (MediaTek): reports September revenue NT$36.08B, (36.2%) y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -15.0% 2669.HK (China Overseas Property Holdings): buys China Overseas Communications from China State Construction International for up to HK$950.0M cash

      • -9.2% 3349.JP (COSMOS Pharmaceutical): reports Q1 revenue ¥241.65B vs FactSet ¥236.30B, operating profit ¥8.99B vs FactSet ¥9.18B

      • -1.1% 9602.JP (Toho Co): reports H1 revenue ¥139.64B vs year-ago ¥120.35B; operating profit ¥30.75B vs year-ago ¥25.98B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • September Bank lending +2.9% y/y vs revised +3.1% in prior month

        • September CGPI +2.0% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and revised +3.3% in prior month

        • August core machinery orders (0.5%) m/m vs consensus +0.6% and (1.1%) in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 558.15 or +1.75% to 32494.66

      • Hang Seng: 345.11 or +1.93% to 18238.21

      • Shanghai Composite: 28.95 or +0.94% to 3107.90

      • Shenzhen Composite: 13.72 or +0.72% to 1920.57

      • ASX200: 2.60 or +0.04% to 7091.00

      • KOSPI: 29.74 or +1.21% to 2479.82

      • SENSEX: (14.59) or (0.02%) to 66458.45

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.02 or +0.01% to 149.1650

      • $-KRW: (2.33) or (0.17%) to 1336.5500

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.11%) to 0.6407

      • $-INR: (0.08) or (0.10%) to 83.1570

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.2986

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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