Oct 13 ,2023
Synopsis
European indices are set to open lower, as Asia trades lower and US equities also closed lower yesterday.
Israel-Hamas fighting now in its sixth day with the region awaiting the imminent wide-scale ground invasion of Gaza by the IDF and the potential for it to drag Iran and its proxy Hezbollah into the conflict. Early intel reports still not showing a smoking gun for Iran involvement, but White House says Iran was at least "complicit".
Asian equities weaker Friday. Hang Seng underperforming with tech stocks swinging sharply lower following recent rally. Real estate developers also weighing. Shares in mainland China, Japan, Korea and Australia all logging declines
US equities were lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels. Weakness broke four-straight gains for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though the averages still on pace for weekly gains. Big tech mixed though equal-weight S&P a big laggard to the official index. September headline CPI of 0.4% hotter than consensus for 0.3%, down from August 0.6% print. Annualized headline of 3.7% unchanged m/m, though hotter than 3.6% consensus.
Among central banks updates: Friday sees Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, speakers include BOE's Bailey at 9:00BST, EU's McGuinness at 9:30, Bank of Spain's de Cos at 12:15, BOE's Saporta 15:50 and BOE's Cunliffe 17:30. ECB's Lagarde panellist at 15:00CET at IMF Seminar: Debate on the Global Economy. Germany's Ministry of Economics releases its Monthly Report
Macroeconomic releases due today include: Switzerland Sep PPI, France Sep final CPI, Spain Sep final CPI, Sweden Sep CPI, Eurozone Aug industrial production. Finland Sep CPI already on the tape coming in at +5.5% y/y vs consensus +5.4% and prior +5.6%
Earnings: Sartorius (SRT3.GR) preannounced preliminary 9M results and also lowered FY23 outlook (second time this year). TomTom (TOM2.NA) reports Q3 net income (€7.9M) vs consensus (€9.0M); reiterates FY guidance. Tryg (TRYG.DC) reports Q3 net income DKK914M vs consensus DKK796M; is launching a share buy back programme of DKK 1B. Bystronic (BYS.SW) reports 9M revenue CHF681.2M, (4%) vs year-ago CHF712.4M; confirms FY23 outlook. NSI (NSI.NA) publishes Q3 2023 trading update: EPRA EPS €1.54 vs year-ago €1.59. Fraport (FRA.GR) reports Sep Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers ~5.78M, +18.2% y/y.
Trading Updates: Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Volkswagen (VOW.GT) monthly sales
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
TRYG.DC (Tryg) -- reports Q3 net income DKK914M vs consensus DKK796M; is launching a share buy back programme of DKK 1B
SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- reports preliminary 9M underlying EBITDA €733M vs year-ago €1.05B; guides FY Revenue to decline ~(17%) vs prior guidance to decline in the low to mid-teens %; now expects an underlying EBITDA margin of slightly above 28% vs prior guidance ~30%
Revenue to decline ~(17%) vs prior guidance to decline in the low to mid-teens %
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- reports preliminary 9M revenue €2.07B vs year-ago €2.60B
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports Sep Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers ~5.78M, +18.2% y/y
TOM2.NA (TomTom) -- reports Q3 net income (€7.9M) vs consensus (€9.0M); reiterates FY guidance
NSI.NA (NSI NV) -- NSI publishes Q3 2023 trading update: EPRA EPS €1.54 vs year-ago €1.59
RENEW.SS (Re:NewCell) -- provides Q3 update:sales to textile value chain taking a longer time to ramp up with Circulose than expected
M&A
URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield) -- announces the sale of Polygone Riviera for €272.3M
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- Generali reaches agreement to dispose of TUA Assicurazioni to Allianz for € 280M
BRK.LN (Brooks MacDonald Group) -- working with defence adviser on strategy amid takeover interest - Reuters
EBK.GR (EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg) -- EnBW makes binding offer to finance insolvency plan for bmp greengas (12-Oct)
NBA.PL (Novabase SGPS) -- enters into agreement with Conclusion Group to sell Neotalent for €49.4M
FIF.LN (Finsbury Food Group) -- major holder Fidelity International plans to vote against 110p/share bid from DBAY Advisors - Sky News
Squared Capital nearing deal to acquire Arriva - FT
OpenAI close to selling shares in deal that values the company at $90B - NY Post
Healthcare
UCB.BB (UCB) -- presented first analyses of pooled data from the two Phase 3 bimekizumab studies (BE HEARD I and BE HEARD II) in moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) at EADV 2023
ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA) -- Cellectis and Imagine Institute publish a proof-of-Concept study of a Gene surgery candidate to treat activated Phosphoinositide 3-Kinase syndrome type 1 (APDS1)
BIM.FP (bioMerieux) -- announces CE-marking of VIDAS TBI (GFAP, UCH-L1)
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- Santhera receives positive CHMP opinion recommending approval of AGAMREE (vamorolone) for treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy
Other
TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular) -- and EPM to jointly capitalize UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones, each partner will contribute COP300B ($71M)
STJ.LN (St. James's Place) -- under pressure from regulators to overhaul fee structure to ensure compliance with UK's new consumer duty - FT
SYNT.LN (Synthomer) -- received valid acceptances in respect of 129.9M new shares, representing 92.6% of total number of new shares to be issued pursuant to the fully underwritten rights issue
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrades ADM.LN; downgrades DLG.LN
Morgan Stanley upgrades MOR, MOR.GR
Oddo upgrades RCO.FP; downgrades CPR.IM
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
CINT.SS (Cint Group) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
HOLN.SW (Holcim) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
PDX.SS (Paradox Interactive) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
QTCOM.FH (Qt Group) -- to buy from hold at SEB
ROO.LN (Deliveroo) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
S32.LN (South32) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
SUBC.NO (Subsea 7) -- to buy from underperform at Jefferies
ZAL.GR (Zalando) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
Downgrades
SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- to hold from buy at Societe Generale
LI.FP (Klepierre) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
Initiations
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- market perform at Bernstein
ECV.GR (Encavis AG) -- equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (0.65%) to 32282.64
Hang Seng (2.22%) to 17833.36
Shanghai Composite (0.78%) to 3083.60
S&P futures +3.3 vs prior close of 4380.5
€-$ +0.0017 or +0.16% to 1.0548
$-¥ (0.08) or (0.06%) to 149.72
€-¥ +0.18 or +0.11% to 157.92
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