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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (2.03%), Hang Seng (0.97%), Shanghai Composite (0.46%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 16 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities ended lower across the region Monday. China tech shares worst off and dragged Shenzhen and Hang Seng lower. Seoul and Taipei also saw sharp losses. Australia down, New Zealand underperformed. Japan closed near its lows of the day. Southeast Asia finished lower, India a few points down. US futures mixed having been higher all morning, Europe pared early gains to now trade sharply down. US dollar lower, onshore yuan notably weaker following record cash injection by PBOC, offshore steady. Treasury yields higher across tenors. Oil futures down. Precious metals weaker, industrial metals now weaker after a bright start. Cryptocurrencies notably higher.

    • Asia markets largely reflected Friday's US and European risk-off move and fell at the open but with no major escalation in the Middle East over the weekend, risk assets held their ground and there was no equity capitulation. Diplomatic efforts to limit Israel's seemingly inevitable move into Gaza, and to prevent a wider conflict appears to be working for now, with Biden trip to Israel also proposed. Futures ticked higher as the day progressed, the dollar and Treasury yields also slipped, equity futures wobbling in late afternoon trade while Europe's quick reversal from its open a concern.

    • Regionally, US is moving to close loopholes in regulations designed to limit exports of advanced chips and semiconductor machinery to China, and weighed on the Hang Seng; mainland markets fell to seven-week lows. Also in China, the PBOC net injected the most liquidity since 2020 in its MLF operation this morning but kept its rate unchanged. New Zealand's conservatives won the weekend's general election but equity markets reacted negatively and the NZD pared early gains. China and Russia's top diplomats Wang Yi and Sergei Lavrov met ahead of a likely meeting between Presidents Xi and Putin later this week.

    • A former chairman of Bank of China (601988.CH) has been arrested for suspected bribery and giving illegal loans. Albemarle (ALB.US) has withdrawn its offer to buy Liontown Resources (LTR.AU) due to growing complexities associated with execution; stock suspended as LTR moves to raise debt and equity to finance project. VinFast (VFS) plans to move into Southeast Asia markets and plans to raise more capital.

  • Digest:

    • China MLF rate unchanged as expected with bigger net injection:

      • PBOC injected CNY789B in new MLF funding (biggest since 2020) while keeping the rate unchanged at 2.50%, both matching expectations. Noted CNY500B in maturing funds, leading to net injection of CNY289B, larger than Reuters survey forecast which three-quarters predicted a net injection of CNY100-200B. PBOC steps up efforts to support China's economic recovery as data released last week indicated an uneven recovery as CPI inflation returned to brink of deflation, exports extended declines and new yuan loans missed expectations. Funding pressures also grow as scale and pace of government and LGSB issuance have exceeded expectations. Many analysts also expect Beijing to deliver fiscal stimulus measures, as any further rate cuts could put more downward pressure on yuan amid a widening yield gap with US. Yet some still see rate cut a possibility in Q4. Attention turns to Wednesday's release of key data including Q3 GDP for more clues on China's economy.

    • US moves to close loopholes in rules covering China's access to chip technology:

      • Reuters reported the US is to refine rules and close loopholes on regulations first introduced in Oct-22 that limit China's access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Amendments will strengthen controls on selling graphics chips for AI applications, selling advanced chipmaking equipment to Chinese firms, article said. Added will also impose additional checks on Chinese firms attempting to evade export restrictions by routing shipments through third countries. Chinese chip design firms added to trade restriction list that will require overseas manufacturers to gain export licenses. Comes just days after US granted TSMC (2330.TT), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS) et al to continue placing their advanced technology equipment in China-based plants (Reuters). Article commented White House under pressure to tighten rules following Huawei's successful introduction of 7-nm processor in smartphone two months ago, which exposed limits to existing rules.

    • Markets brace for impact from Middle East tensions:

      • Reuters highlighted discussions surrounding the expected market impacts from the Israeli-Hamas war with key attention on potential for broader regional conflict that may well drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the global economy. Noted oil prices jumped nearly 6% Friday, though overall market reactions have been muted over the past week aside from a weaker Israeli shekel. Some thoughts expanding conflict may exacerbate inflation, inviting further rate hikes. However, US could be the exception as haven demand attracts capital inflows. Supply line disruptions could also impact other energy markets such as natural gas. Separately, FT reported officials at IMF and World Bank meetings in Morocco warned of the risk that wider Middle East conflict poses a fresh threat to the global economy just after emerging from shocks triggered by Covid and the Ukraine war. Noted mood heading into the meetings indicated relief that hard landing risks had waned, though darkened on the acknowledgement of a lack of clear bright spots to offset existing challenges.

    • New Zealand Labour Party ousted, Nationals planning coalition government:

      • In line with poll projections for a change in government, Electoral Commission provisional results showed Christopher Luxon's National Party won 50 seats and ACT 11, securing a majority of just one seat in the 121-seat parliament (Reuters). Latest reports indicated senior National Party members were set to hold closed-door discussions Sunday to plan a coalition government after constructive talks with ACT leader Seymour. However, attention remains on some 567K special votes yet to be counted and right-wing parties typically lose at least one seat on the final results. In that case, Nationals/ACT would need to reach agreement with New Zealand First. Luxon yet to talk with leader Winston Peters but has said he is prepared to work with them to form a stable government. Bloomberg highlighted major shift away from Labour, whose popular support collapsed to 27% from 50% at the 2020 election under Ardern. Also discussed how incoming government inherits challenging economic environment with RBNZ forecasting recession as it keeps policy restrictive. National Party has promised tax cuts partially funded by removing ban on sale of expensive homes to foreigners, while also stripping RBNZ of its dual mandate to focus solely on inflation fighting.

    • Analysts' best guess still points to BOJ lifting zero rates in April:

      • Nikkei poll of 16 economists found majority looking for NIRP to be lifted in April, reaffirming prior surveys. Risks for earlier YCC tweaks remain, citing UBS prediction for the yield band to be widened to 1.5% at the October MPM. Uncertainties compounded by Middle East tensions pointing to higher crude oil prices. Article also noted recent comments by Governor Ueda that BOJ is not in a position to project specific time frame for policy changes dampened expectations for an earlier shift within the year, though still seen as a possibility. April calls align with attention on next year's shunto wage talks, where outcome will become clearer from around March. Also coincides with the April Outlook Report which will reveal FY26 inflation forecasts for the first time, prompting speculation that a 2% projection might be a signal. Debate continues on the order in which normalization will play out as Dai-ichi Life Research Institute suggested BOJ may keep YCC as insurance against the possibility of unexpected sharp rises in yields reflecting market expectations for normalization. JPMorgan still sees a higher bar for NIRP change over YCC or that yield target tweaks based on recent BOJ rhetoric.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +8.9% 7453.JP (Ryohin Keikaku): reports FY revenue ¥581.41B vs FactSet ¥580.12B, operating profit ¥33.14B vs FactSet ¥31.37B

      • +2.8% 6969.HK (Smoore International Holdings): reports Q3 adjusted net income CNY466.9M vs year-ago CNY452.8M, revenue CNY2.88B vs year-ago CNY2.60B

      • +2.3% 2651.JP (Lawson): reports H1 revenue ¥545.49B vs guidance ¥530.00B, core operating profit ¥53.07B vs guidance ¥34.50B; guides FY revenue ¥1.080T vs prior guidance ¥1.060T and FactSet ¥1.064T, core operating profit ¥85.00B vs prior guidance ¥64.00B and FactSet ¥73.15B

      • +0.9% 2020.HK (ANTA Sports Products): enters agreement to acquire 75.13% stake in MAIA ACTIVE business

      • +0.4% 2338.HK (Weichai Power): guides Q3 net income attributable CNY2.04-2.78B vs year-ago CNY925.2M; chairman Tan Xuguang to cease to serve concurrently as CEO, effective today

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -6.1% 813.HK (Shimao Group Holdings): reports September contracted sales CNY2.02B; StreetAccount notes year-ago figure was CNY8.00B

      • -4.2% 8233.JP (Takashimaya Co.): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥6.4B, (¥1.8B) y/y

      • -2.3% 540376.IN (Avenue Supermarts): reports Q2 standalone EPS INR10.10 vs FactSet INR10.45,EBITDA INR10.02B vs FactSet INR10.39B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan August

        • Final industrial production (0.7%) m/m vs preliminary 0.0% and (1.8%) in prior month

          • Operating ratio +0.5% m/m vs (2.2%) in prior month

          • Production capacity +0.1% y/y vs +0.3% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (656.96) or (2.03%) to 31659.03

      • Hang Seng: (173.09) or (0.97%) to 17640.36

      • Shanghai Composite: (14.29) or (0.46%) to 3073.81

      • Shenzhen Composite: (21.09) or (1.11%) to 1884.32

      • ASX200: (24.50) or (0.35%) to 7026.50

      • KOSPI: (19.91) or (0.81%) to 2436.24

      • SENSEX: (25.95) or (0.04%) to 66256.80

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 149.5420

      • $-KRW: +2.10 or +0.16% to 1355.2500

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.49% to 0.6326

      • $-INR: (0.19) or (0.23%) to 83.2410

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.08% to 7.3110

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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