Oct 17 ,2023
Synopsis
European indices are set to open mixed to higher amidst Asia equities trading higher Tuesday. Mainland China briefly swung to losses, damping some momentum in other benchmarks. China sluggish price action put down to caution ahead of tomorrow's GDP and activity data. US contracts also edged lower. Regional tech mostly firmer after positive leads from Nasdaq and SOX.
In geopolitical news, diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation of Israeli-Hamas conflict also offered a reprieve, though Israeli ground assault still looms and bombardment of Gaza continued as cease-fire arrangements to open a humanitarian corridor through Egypt stalled. Israel warned of a protracted war against Hamas as Secretary of State Blinken returned to Israel for further talks. Russian President Putin spoke with leaders of Egypt, Syria, Iran and PLA, concluding with unanimous support for urgent ceasefire. Calls echoed by China in a meeting with Russian delegation in Beijing ahead of Putin's visit.
Today's agenda sees ECOFIN meeting and EU Energy Council will seek a general approach on a proposal to amend the EU's electricity market design rules. Saudi-EU Investment Forum, participiants include EU's Šef�?ovi�?. In Germany, Federal Geothermal Association Congress (through Thu) and German Employers' Day, speakers include Chancellor Scholz at 9:35CET, the German Chancellor hosts King Abdullah of Jordan later in the day. In the UK, Levelling-Up and Regeneration Bill continues its passage through HoC and committee business includes Three (1.HK) -Vodafone (VOD.LN) merger: implications for competition (10:00BST), long-duration energy storage (10:15) and implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine for UK-EU relations (16:00). Sweden's Climate and Environment Minister Pourmokhtari press conf at 11:00CET connected with investigator's report on how Sweden can achieve its climate commitments. Russian President Putin will attend Belt and Road Forum.
In central banks, Riksdag Committee on Finance hearing on current monetary policy at 9:00CET; Executive Board of the Riksbank will participate (livestream). BOE's Dhingra panellist at 10:05BST at the Royal Economic Society Summit 2023 and ECB's af Jochnick speech at 13:50CET followed by Q&A at the European Supervisors' Education Initiative conf (through Wed). Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 19:00CET. Joint ECB/IMF conf (through Wed) Netherland central bank's Knot, Ireland central bank's Madouros panellists at 15:15CET, de Guindos speech 19:00.
Macroeconomic releases due today include: Germany Oct ZEW survey. Note that UK data based on its labour force survey (LFS) will not be released until next week. Today, the ONS will publish only figures on wages and vacancies, based on different surveys, along with experimental figures drawn from HM Revenue & Customs records.
On the earnings front, DACHs companies kicked off the session with BAWAG Group (BG.AV), Lonza Group (LONN.SW), and Drägerwerk (DRW3.GR) among others from the region to update investors. In Nordics, BioGaia (BIOG.B.SS), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), and Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS)) issued Q3 earnings/updates. Also reporting today, Telekom Austria (TKA.AV), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), Bellway (BWY.LN), X5 Retail Group (FIVE.LN), Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LN), Ninety One (N91.LN), and Integrafin (IHP.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
UK
EU
Poland election
Polish opposition looks set to oust ruling nationalists in major political shift - Reuters
Geopolitics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
RIO.AU (Rio Tinto) -- reports Q3 production; confirms Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) 83.9Mt; lowers IOC pellets and concentrate guidance
LONN.SW (Lonza Group) -- hosts CMD: outlines mid-term guidance for 2024-2028, including +11-13% sales growth; confirms 2023 guidance
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- says profitability targets envisaged under Umicore's 2030 RISE Strategy in Battery Materials have been firmly secured
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports Total Paris Aeroport Septeeber traffic 31.19M, +15.1% y/y
NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor) -- reports Q3 net income $1.2M vs FactSet $3.2M [9 est, ($1.3)-7M]; expects gross margin of ~50% also in Q4
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- reports Q3 EPS €2.25 vs FactSet €2.16 [3 est, €2.12-2.18]; expects to meet or exceed its FY financial targets
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary Q3 EBIT €29M vs year-ago (€36.6M); raises FY outlook
BIOG.B.SS (BioGaia) -- reports preliminary Q3 revenue SEK318M vs year-ago SEK258M
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- trading update: Q3 harvest volume ~12,200 tonnes GWT vs prior guidance 10,500 tonnes GWT
MTG.SW (Meier Tobler Group) -- reports Q3 sales CHF 131.5M vs year-ago CHF 144.7M; expects significantly lower Q4 sales than in same period last year
ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson) -- reports final Q3 earnings in line with prelim. release: net income SEK1.4B ex-items; For Q4 expects similar market trends as in Q3, while the cost-out impact will increase. Expects a group Q4 EBITA margin at around 10%; Given current uncertainty will not give guidance beyond Q4 of 2023
EQT.SS (EQT) -- issues Q3 trading update: Fee generating AuM €127.9B as at 30-Sep, +1% q/q
Also reporting today:
Earnings:
DACHs: Telekom Austria (TKA.AV)
France: Broadpeak (ALPBPK.FP)
Nordics: Note (NOTE.SS), Elanders (ELAN.B.SS), ProfilGruppen (PROF.B.SS), Olvi (OLVAS.FH)
UK: Bellway (BWY.LN), Abingdon Health (ABDX.LN), Nanoco (NANO.LN), Revolution Bars Group (RBG.LN)
Trading Update: X5 Retail Group (FIVE.LN), Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LN), Ninety One (N91.LN), Integrafin (IHP.LN), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), Mercialys (MERY.FP), Esker (ALESK.FP), Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP), Sidetrade (ALBFR.FP)
M&A
FRAS.LN (Frasers Group) -- reaches deal to acquire German retail chain SportScheck -- Sky News
BNRE (Brookfield Reinsurance) -- Brookfield reportedly considering entrance into UK's pension insurance market -- Reuters, citing sources
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- NICE recommends Roche's Columvi to treat relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after 2 or more systemic treatments
ABVX.FP (Abivax) -- files amended F-1 in connection with proposed US offering; expects to offer total of ~18.7M ADSs/ordinary shares through Morgan Stanley, Leerink, LifeSci Capital, and Bryan, Garnier
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- announces imlifidase demonstrated 90% patient survival and 82% graft survival at five years in extended study
MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals) -- board to seek postponement of remuneration discussion
+BOEHRINGER (Boehringer Ingelheim) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to Boehringer Ingelheim for the treatment of small cell lung cancer
Other
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus critical of German blockade on export of Eurofighters - Handelsblatt
VOW3.GR (Volkswagen) -- behind schedule in cost cutting plan - Reuters
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- Rolls-Royce planning to lay off ~2.5K employees as part of cost reduction effort -- Sky News
MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk) -- offers customers certified green fuel shipping
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- enters 10-year supply agreement with AESC
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- confirms expansion of its EV battery materials production footprint
EDP.PL (EDP-Energias de Portugal) -- Portuguese Electricity Regulator announces its proposal for electricity tariffs in 2024
Regional Gaming Revenues - Massachusetts September 2023
Regional Gaming Revenues - New Jersey September 2023
SATS Ltd. and Kuehne+Nagel enter air logistics collaboration; terms undisclosed
September Komtrax North America data (3.8%) y/y
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DNB.NO (DNB Bank) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- to hold from sell at SEB
STMN.SW (Straumann Holding) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
IG.IM (Italgas) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
OKDBV.FH (Oriola) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
Downgrades
DANSKE.DC (Danske Bank) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
SWED.A.SS (Swedbank) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
SHB.A.SS (Svenska Handelsbanken) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- to sell from hold at Societe Generale
FBK.IM (FinecoBank) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
Initiations
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- overweight at Barclays
KEMIRA.FH (Kemira) -- buy at DnB Markets
SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden) -- buy at Berenberg
CE2.GR (Cropenergies) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Other Actions
DB1.GR (Deutsche Börse) -- resumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
HOLM.B.SS (Holmen) -- reinitiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SCA.A.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- reinitiated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei +0.91% to 31947.75
Hang Seng +0.68% to 17760.10
Shanghai Composite +0.12% to 3077.61
S&P futures (5.5) vs prior close of 4401.0
€-$ (0.0014) or (0.13%) to 1.0548
$-¥ +0.08 or +0.06% to 149.59
€-¥ (0.10) or (0.06%) to 157.78
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