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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.01%, Hang Seng (0.23%), Shanghai Composite (0.80%) as of 04:10 ET

Oct 18 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities finished mixed Wednesday with little clear direction apparent. Greater China stocks fell after a bright start with the Hang Seng ending slightly lower again, Shenzhen underperformed on US tech ban. Taipei also sharply down ahead of several heavyweight earnings, Seoul up slightly. India extended early losses, Southeast Asia lower on balance. Japan was flat. US futures a few points lower, Europe opened slightly lower. US dollar volatile but flat now, AUD, Korean won and offshore yuan among Asia currency gainers. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields higher with 10Y above 0.8% even as BOJ announced an unscheduled bond purchase to cap the rise. Crude sharply higher, gold rising to one-month high. Industrial metals up.

    • Asia equities drifting Thursday with the lack of a clear driver and another sell off in regional bonds holding back investors from placing fresh trades. More robust economic data overnight in the US pushed 10Y, 5Y and 2Y bond yields to highs last seen in 2006-07, causing Fed Fund Futures to move higher with January now seen increasingly possible as when the Fed could hike rates again. The dollar DXY index close to 106 (although remains volatile), giving support to Asia currencies and, to an extent, equities. However, other haven assets rising notably as Middle East tensions rise, particularly gold, which spiked to one-month highs. Crude futures also higher, Brent recapturing $91 per barrel.

    • The region's technology stocks reacting negatively to Nvidia's warning overnight that the US's export ban to China could hit its bottom line. China property stocks hit by confirmation Country Garden failed to make a coupon payment due yesterday. Markets at first reacting positively to better-than-expected Chinese economic data: Q3 GDP growth was better than expected, September industrial production and retail sales higher y/y and higher versus expectations. Beijing told state-owned banks to roll over local government debt with longer terms and lower rates in an effort to reduce risks. RBA Governor Bullock observed past rate hikes were biting. South Korea said more overseas investors than expected applied for licenses to trade forex in the country.

    • The grace period for Country Garden's (2007.HK) $15M coupon payment expired with company saying it is unlikely to make the payment on time. BHP (BHP.AU) and Mitsubishi Development (8058.JP) said Whitehaven (WHC.AU) is to buy its Blackwater and Daunia mines for up to $4.1B in cash. SK Hynix (000660.SK) denied it had approached Softbank (9984.JP) over a possible merger between their Kioxia and Western Digital units.

  • Digest:

    • China GDP and activity data mostly beat:

      • Q3 GDP expanded 4.9% y/y, above consensus 4.4% and follows 6.3% in the previous quarter. Sequential growth was 1.3% q/q vs consensus 1.0% and prior 0.5%. Industrial production growth steady at 4.5% y/y in September vs consensus 4.4%. Among key categories, passenger cars were lower, PCs fell sharply, while smartphones moderately higher. Most materials saw growth including steel, though construction-related categories weaker. Capacity utilization increased to 75.6% in Q3 from 74.5% in Q2, though unchanged on the year. Retail sales rose 5.5% y/y above consensus 4.9% and 4.6% in August. Components were mostly positive. Catering growth easing though remains in double-digits. Autos moderately firmer, though construction materials were notably softer, furniture and communications equipment edged higher. Fixed asset investment growth slipped to 3.1% YTD vs consensus and prior month's 3.2%, continuing gradual deceleration throughout the year. Infrastructure moderated to 6.2% from 6.4%. Real estate declines deepened to 9.1% from 8.8% as housing sales continued to tail and new construction starts remained down by more than 20%. Unemployment rate fell to 5.0% from 5.2%.

    • Country Garden default looms as grace period expires without coupon payment:

      • Country Garden (2007.HK) said company won't be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time amid deep correction in China's home market and its subdued sales (Bloomberg) as 30-day grace period ended for $15.4M coupon payment due 17-18 Oct. Added it seeks a "holistic solution" to solve problems, and keeping firm as a going concern would help relevant stakeholders. A bondholder confirmed no payment received as of Wednesday morning HKT. Reuters added bondholders expect debt to be restructured while one US asset manager said they are ready to take some losses and hope restructuring process to be less painful compared to China Evergrande (3333.HK). Noted company's $9.9B of offshore debt would be one of China's biggest restructurings. Takeaway is chaos at Country Garden will send China's property sector into deeper turmoil as company has much more projects than those of China Evergrande.

    • Asia bond yields spike again:

      • Bond yields throughout Asia higher again Thursday with many breaking multi-month or multi-year highs. Japan's 10Y yield above 0.8% for first time in ten years despite BoJ announcing unscheduled bond-purchase operation to cap gains. Bloomberg commented intervention intended to remind markets of its determination to slow pace of yield increases but operation failed to make immediate impact. Economists said correlation between JGBs and US Treasuries mean JGB yield trajectory remains upward with more robust US economic data overnight reinforcing the higher-for-longer rates mantra. Elsewhere, yields on India's 10Y reached highest level since February, Thailand's 10Y at almost 18-month high. Australia's 10Y yield grazed two-week highs and peaks last seen in Oct-11, supported by hawkish RBA comments yesterday. In contrast, China's 10Y sovereign yield remained flat near 2.7% despite stronger-than-expected economic data that reflected growing signs of stabilization.

    • US confirms tougher restrictions on China's access to chip technology:

      • Press reported Biden administration confirmed new rules to bolster restrictions on China's access to high-end chip technology, effective in 30 days (Reuters, Bloomberg). New measures close loopholes in regulations released last October and Commerce Secretary Raimondo said rules will probably be updated "at least annually." Added that curbs aimed at limiting China's access to advanced semiconductors that could fuel AI breakthroughs and sophisticated computers critical to Chinese military applications, stressing the administration was not seeking to hurt Beijing economically. A 2022 Georgetown University study found nearly all of 97 AI chips procured via Chinese military tenders over an 8-month period in 2020 were designed by Nvidia (NVDA), Xilinx, Intel (INTC) and Microsemi. Senior US official said tighter controls will target Nvidia's A800 and H800 chips created for export to China. New rules also require companies to notify US government before selling chips below the controlled threshold to discourage substitutes. Reviews to be processed within 25 days. Notable concession on chips made for consumer products such as smartphones, PCs and EVs.

    • IMF says China's structural slowdown will weigh on Asia's growth:

      • In latest Regional Economic Outlook, IMF lowered 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts for China to 5% (down from 5.2%) and 4.2% (from 4.5%) respectively, saying reopening recovery losing steam and highlighting renewed weakness in property sector. Downgrade also in line with latest edition of World Economic Outlook. Said prolonger housing market woes would trigger greater financial stress among developers and larger asset quality deterioration. Bloomberg added China's housing sector showed little improvement in September despite steps taken by authorities in recent months to bolster market. Noted property investment down 9.1% y/y in Jan.-Sep., a bigger drop than 8.8% fall in first eight months. Noted IMF said APAC will remain "the most dynamic region this year", maintaining 4.6% growth in 2023, while expected region's growth to slow to 4.2% in 2024 and 3.9% in medium term, weighed by China's structural slowdown and weaker productivity growth in many other economies. Cautioned APAC central banks to guard against easing monetary policy prematurely.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.7% 1211.HK (BYD Co. Ltd.): guides Q3 CAS net income attributable CNY9.55-11.55B vs year-ago CNY5.72B

      • +4.5% 006800.KS (Mirae Asset Securities Co.): launches 10.0M-share buyback for up to KRW60.20B; to run from tomorrow to 18-Jan-2024

      • +2.3% 285.HK (BYD Electronic (International)): guides 9M net income attributable CNY2.84-3.12B vs year-ago CNY1.24B

      • +0.0% 000660.KS (SK Hynix): reportedly reluctant to negotiate on the merger of Kioxia with Western Digital

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -5.8% 1548.HK (Genscript Biotech): Legend Biotech discloses CARVYKTI generated net trade sales of around $152M during Q3

      • -0.6% 300124.CH (Shenzhen Inovance Technology): guides Q3 net income attributable CNY1.17-1.28B vs year-ago CNY1.11B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China

        • Q3 GDP +4.9% y/y vs consensus +4.4% and +6.3% in prior quarter

          • GDP +1.3% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and +0.8% in prior quarter

        • September industrial production +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.4% and +4.5% in prior month

          • Retail sales +5.5% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and +4.6% in prior month

          • Fixed asset investment (YTD) +3.1% vs consensus +3.2% y/y vs +3.2% in prior month

          • Unemployment rate 5.0% vs 5.2% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 1.96 or +0.01% to 32042.25

      • Hang Seng: (40.82) or (0.23%) to 17732.52

      • Shanghai Composite: (24.79) or (0.80%) to 3058.71

      • Shenzhen Composite: (28.08) or (1.49%) to 1856.12

      • ASX200: 21.50 or +0.30% to 7077.60

      • KOSPI: 2.43 or +0.10% to 2462.60

      • SENSEX: (430.52) or (0.65%) to 65997.58

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.04) or (0.03%) to 149.7740

      • $-KRW: (4.71) or (0.35%) to 1348.8300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.18% to 0.6376

      • $-INR: (0.05) or (0.06%) to 83.2520

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.3109

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