Oct 19 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed broadly lower Thursday, with Switzerland and Denmark the main laggards closing down (2.1%) and (3.2%), respectively. In Swiss markets, SMI heavyweights Roche (ROG.SW) (4.4%) and Nestle (NESN.SW) (3.4%) saw sharp declines following their latest Q3 sales reports.
Renewed rate backup the big overhang on broader risk sentiment. Earnings a mixed bag and there continues to be a lot of debate about the magnitude of the expected 2H23/2024 rebound. Peak Fed still a big bullish talking point for stocks, particularly given the accompanying US macro resilience, though complicated by recent batch of hotter data and jump in expectations for another rate hike. Powell comments on the economic outlook (12:00 ET) widely expected to be the highlight of the day. Geopolitical tensions also getting outsized attention given oil impact and fit with broader de-globalization-related themes.
In European macro developments, French business confidence weakened in October to 98 versus consensus 99 and prior 99, leaving it two points below its long-term average of 100. Insee highlighted all main market sectors contributed to worsening of the business situation.
In the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its forecast evaluation report for FY 2022-23 ahead of Chancellor Hunt's fiscal statement due next month, which will include updated OBR projections. Said it underestimated the strength and persistence of inflation and overestimated the level of activity.
In European sector performance, breadth was negative 10-1; bucking the trend was Tech and Consumer Products & Services. Main laggard was Healthcare with Roche (ROG.SW) reporting in-line Q3 on what analysts viewed as a low quality mix. Autos & Parts saw focus on Renault (RNO.FP) shares down over (7%) after its Q3 update. Tech (and the German Dax) got a lift from SAP (SAP.GR) up ~5% post results as analyst said the company reassured with robust current cloud backlog.
In M&A news today, CoStar offered 110p/share in cash for OnTheMarket (OTMP.LN); offer values OnTheMarket at £99M ($119.9M). Shares of peer Rightmove (RMV.LN) slumped on the read-across. Analysts note only does this diminish chances of RMV being a target itself, but RMV could face more intense competition.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +0.49%, Consumer Products and Services +0.08%, Utilities (0.06%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.34%), Construct & Mtls (0.55%), Chemicals (0.60%), Media (0.84%), Financial Svcs (0.89%), Energy(1.00%)
Underperformers:
Real Estate (2.95%), Health Care (2.69%), Retail (2.21%), Autos & Parts (2.17%), Telecom (1.56%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.41%), Banks (1.34%), Travel & Leisure (1.30%), Basic Resources (1.25%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (1.21%)
Macro:
EU carmaker subsidy deal with US at risk over mine inspections - FT
EU Set for Own Summit in Bid to Rival China Belt and Road - Bloomberg
Rishi Sunak vows to stand with Israel in 'darkest hour' - BBC
UK fiscal watchdog bracing for higher inflation - link to OBR forecast evaluation report
Italia Viva, Azione parting company says Renzi - ANSA
Portugal First Half Home Sales Slump 20% as Golden Visa Ends - Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable gainers:
+52.5% OTMP.LN (OnTheMarket £1.08, +0.37) -- CoStar offers 110p/share in cash for OnTheMarket; H1 earnings
+38.1% GNRO.FP (GeNeuro €1.60, +0.44) -- and Verily collaborate to advance Long-COVID research
+22.2% MCB.LN (McBride £0.40, +0.07) -- trading update; Investec upgrade
+18.3% BONAV.B.SS (Bonava SEK17.29, +2.68) -- sells its business in St. Petersburg to Star Development LLC for purchase price of ~ €50M
+14.3% ONT.LN (Oxford Nanopore Technologies £2.15, +0.27) -- bioMerieux to acquire 29.0M shares in Oxford Nanopore Technologies at 238.08p/share; Mayo Clinic and Oxford Nanopore Technologies announce collaboration; goal to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026 - CMD
+13.0% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €2.79, +0.32) -- trial data
+10.3% AQ.SS (AQ Group SEK428.00, +40.00) -- Q3 earnings
+7.9% TELIA.SS (Telia Co. SEK25.37, +1.85) -- Q3 earnings; raises FY guidance
+6.4% MYCR.SS (Mycronic SEK233.40, +14.00) -- Q3 earnings
+4.9% SAP.GR (SAP €127.08, +5.94) -- Q3 earnings
+4.7% GBG.LN (GB Group £2.27, +0.10) -- trading update
+4.7% MUM.GR (Mensch & Maschine Software €48.55, +2.20) -- Q3 earnings
+4.7% RI.FP (Pernod Ricard €166.00, +7.40) -- Q1 revenue
+4.5% PCELL.SS (PowerCell Sweden SEK49.05, +2.11) -- Q3 earnings
+4.3% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €194.50, +8.00) -- 9M earnings
+4.3% GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables €20.66, +0.85) -- up to €40M buyback
+4.3% MSAB.B.SS (Micro Systemation SEK55.60, +2.30) -- order
+4.3% BOWL.LN (Hollywood Bowl Group £2.44, +0.10) -- FY revenue
+4.0% TGYM.IM (Technogym €7.34, +0.28) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+4.0% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK450.00, +17.40) -- Q3 earnings
+3.4% GOFORE.FH (Gofore €21.40, +0.70) -- Q3 earnings
+2.9% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €149.70, +4.15) -- CMD update
+2.6% TEKNA.NO (Tekna Holding NOK7.20, +0.18) -- order
+2.2% IFCN.SW (Inficon Holding CHF1,008.00, +22.00) -- Q3 earnings
+1.4% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €257.80, +3.60) -- Q3 earnings
+1.4% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK0.85, +0.01) -- Q3 earnings
+1.3% MINEST.SS (Minesto SEK4.53, +0.06) -- 9M earnings
+1.2% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK207.00, +2.50) -- discloses 19.4M share sale at SEK 205/share by current and former employees
Notable decliners:
-20.5% UN01.GR (Uniper €3.94, -1.02) -- to convene an EGM on 8-Dec for the purpose of a capital reduction in several steps
-17.5% RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial £4.91, -1.04) -- Q3 trading update
-17.2% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF39.20, -8.16) -- Q3 revenue
-15.6% SEFER.FP (SergeFerrari Group €6.20, -1.15) -- Q3 revenue
-13.5% RMV.LN (Rightmove £4.98, -0.77) -- CoStar offers 110p/share in cash for OnTheMarket
-13.3% TE.FP (Technip Energies €19.61, -3.01) -- Le Monde report regarding Russian sanctions; company says has complied at all times with applicable sanctions
-12.1% TCM.DC (TCM Group DKK40.70, -5.60) -- prelim Q3 earnings
-10.6% PLEJD.SS (Plejd AB SEK133.00, -15.80) -- Q3 earnings
-9.1% SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group €15.82, -1.58) -- Q3 revenue
-8.8% AUB.FP (Aubay €31.20, -3.00) -- Q3 revenue
-7.2% RNO.FP (Renault €33.48, -2.60) -- Q3 revenue
-7.0% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK207.60, -15.70) -- Q3 earnings
-6.8% ELISA.FH (Elisa Oyj €41.72, -3.03) -- Q3 earnings
-6.3% EXS.SS (Exsitec Holding SEK127.50, -8.50) -- Q3 earnings
-5.7% NFN.GR (NFON €5.66, -0.34) -- Barclays downgrade
-5.7% HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown £6.95, -0.42) -- Q1 revenue
-5.6% MNDI.LN (Mondi £12.59, -0.74) -- trading update
-5.4% ATEA.NO (Atea NOK125.00, -7.20) -- Q3 earnings
-4.5% SZU.GR (Suedzucker €14.12, -0.67) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.4% ROG.SW (Roche Holding CHF238.45, -11.00) -- Q3 revenue
-4.0% ARJO.B.SS (Arjo SEK37.88, -1.58) -- Q3 earnings
-3.7% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.01, -0.00) -- ZQ Capital Limited announces posting of offer document
-3.5% EXL1V.FH (Exel Composites €3.04, -0.11) -- lowers FY revenue guidance
-3.4% WITH.FH (WithSecure €0.88, -0.03) -- Inderes downgrade
-3.4% NESN.SW (Nestle CHF98.75, -3.51) -- 9M sales / CEO says he has a more cautious view on FY guidance -- Bloomberg
-3.3% COTN.SW (COMET Holding CHF187.50, -6.30) -- Q3 revenue
-3.3% CRBN.NA (Corbion €16.37, -0.56) -- Barclays downgrade
-1.7% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK39.32, -0.68) -- trading update
-1.6% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €3.14, -0.05) -- prelim 9M; lowers FY guidance
-1.4% HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials €70.94, -1.04) -- reports preliminary Q3 EBIT €1.08B vs year-ago €874.0M; now expects FY EBIT of €2.85B to €3.0B vs 27-Jul guidance between €2.7B to €2.9B and FactSet €2.82B
-0.3% RNK.LN (Rank Group £0.77, -0.00) -- trading update; Peel Hunt upgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR)
Nordics: Yara International (YAR.NO), Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF.NO), Tomra Systems (TOM.NO), Protector Forsikring (PROT.NO), Norske Skog (NSKOG.NO), Lifco (LIFCO.B.SS), Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), Wallenstam (WALL.B.SS), Norion Bank (NORION.SS), Studsvik (SVIK.SS), Dedicare (DEDI.SS), I-Tech (ITECH.SS), Huhtamnki (HUH1V.FH), Talenom (TNOM.FH), Modulight (MODU.FH)
Trading Update: InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Foxtons (FOXT.LN), Record (REC.LN), Klepierre (LI.FP), Rexel (RXL.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Basic-Fit (BFIT.NA), Beter Bed (BBED.NA), BioGaia (BIOG.B.SS), Bittium (BITTI.FH)
Data:
Economics:
Netherlands Sep Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.6%
Switzerland Sep Trade Balance CHF6.32B vs consensus CHF3.8B and prior revised CHF3.81B from CHF4.05B
Sep Swiss Watch Exports +3.8% to CHF 2.33B
France Oct Business Survey 98 vs consensus 99 and prior 99
Spain Aug Trade Balance (€4.4B) vs consensus (€4.5B) and prior (€4.9B)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): +$0.22 or +0.25% to $88.54
€-$ +0.0043 or +0.41% to 1.0579
£-$ +0.0010 or +0.08% to 1.2150
€-£ +0.0029 to 0.8708
S&P 500 (0.03%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.64%
DAX: +8.06%
CAC: +6.91%
MIB: +17.04%
Stoxx 600: +3.49%
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