Nov 23 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher across the region. Oil/gas, media and health care were the best performers, while travel/leisure and autos lagged. US equity futures slightly higher, though Wall Street closed today for Thanksgiving. Oil down after OPEC+ meeting delayed and big US inventory build. Gold up. Industrial metals higher.
Attention on European politics after hard-right nationalist Geert Wilders' Freedom Party won most seats in Dutch election, though may struggle to form a coalition. UK press digests yesterday's fiscal statement. Takeaways highlighted potential for an earlier general election after Hunt brought forward tax cuts. German coalition postpones budget talks as they struggle to find a way out of the crisis.
Meanwhile, in geopolitics, Israel-Hamas four-day truce delayed until Friday.
Macro data calendar dominated by PMIs. Eurozone composite reading at two-month, though still in contractionary territory. French business sentiment weakened. UK services sector helps economy to stabilize in November.
Riksbank leaves policy unchanged at 4.00%, while warning it is prepared to raise rates further. October ECB minutes showed policymakers wanted to avoid unwarranted loosening in financial conditions.
In earnings news, from the DACH region, All for One Group (A1OS.GR) issued preliminary FY EBIT €17.7M ex-items vs prior guidance €17.5-21.5M and FactSet €16.5M and issued FY guidance as well as reaffirmed medium-term outlook. UNIQA Insurance Group (UQA.AV) reported 9M net income €224.5M, +2% y/y. In Southern Europe, Endesa (ELE.SM) announced its dividend policy 2023-2026 and released presentation material in connection with its CMD. MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE (MFEB.IM) reported 9M earnings and confirmed forecast for a positive FY23 EBIT, Net Profit and Free Cash Flow.
In Belgium, Ackermans & Van Haaren (ACKB.BB) issued a Q3 trading update, said it is well on track to post a solid set of FY23 results. Out of the Nordics, Lassila & Tikanoja (LAT1V.FH) kept long-term financial targets unchanged ahead of its CMD today.
In the UK, Jet2 (JET2.LN), Intertek Group (IRTK.LN), Mitie Group (MTO.LN), Virgin Money UK (VMUK.LN) and FirstGroup (FGP.LN) are among other companies from the region that updated investors with their latest numbers.
In M&A news, Serica Energy (SQZ.LN) to acquire 30% non-operated interests in the P2498 and P2170 licences from Jersey Oil & Gas for $6.8M.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Energy+1.29%, Media +0.69%, Health Care +0.68%, Banks +0.66%, Insurance +0.28%
Underperformers:
Travel & Leisure (0.96%), Autos & Parts (0.30%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.26%), Telecom (0.22%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.13%), Consumer Products and Services (0.11%), Construct & Mtls (0.09%), Real Estate (0.02%), Retail (0.01%), Technology +0.01%, Utilities +0.13%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.16%, Chemicals +0.22%, Basic Resources +0.24%
Macro:
ECB:
Makhlouf fails to rule out another ECB interest rate hike - The Irish Times
ECB's Nagel: rates at peak or close, rules out hard landing - Reuters
France:
Le Maire Says French Debt Costs Would Rise on S&P Downgrade - Bloomberg
Germany:
Following recent constitutional court ruling, German FinMin Lindner on Thursday agreed to suspend the debt brake for 2023 - Bloomberg
Germany to end inflation-linked bond sale beginning next year - Bloomberg
Germany shelves 2024 budget talks as crisis deepens - FT, Reuters
Bundesbank says too soon to declare finance system all clear - Bloomberg
Netherlands:
Dutch election: Wilders' far-right party seeks to form government - Reuters
Norway
Norway's Third-Quarter GDP Rebound Keeps Rate Hike in Play - Bloomberg
Sweden
Turkey tells NATO that Sweden won't join by next week's meeting -Reuters citing sources
UK:
UK Hunt's tax cuts to squeeze public services beyond the next election - FT, Bloomberg, Reuters
Household energy bills to rise as Ofgem lifts price cap - The Telegraph
Rishi Sunak unveils tax cuts. Liz Truss' allies see the irony - Politico
Huge boost for UK green industries with £960 million government investment and major reform of power network - GOV.UK
Turkey:
Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40%, well above expectations - CNBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.9% ARISE.SS (Arise SEK39.80, +5.45) -- buy initiations at SEB and SHB
+15.4% HUNT.NO (Hunter Group NOK1.82, +0.24) -- Q3 earnings
+6.2% MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE €3.06, +0.18) -- 9M earnings
+5.5% SANION.SS (Saniona SEK7.15, +0.37) -- Saniona's CEO Thomas Feldthus says candidate selection phase usually takes 6 months regarding molecule to treat epilepsy - BioStock
+5.4% VLX.LN (Volex £3.14, +0.16) -- H1 earnings
+5.1% GIMB.BB (Gimv €42.00, +2.05) -- H1 earnings
+4.4% MUM.GR (Mensch & Maschine Software €52.30, +2.20) -- updates on Autodesk model transition; FY25 EBIT margin expected to exceed 20%
+4.2% A1OS.GR (All for One Group €39.80, +1.60) -- prelim FY earnings
+3.6% MNTC.SS (Mentice SEK43.00, +1.50) -- appoints new CFO
+3.5% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £2.14, +0.07) -- to acquire 30% non-operated interests in the P2498 and P2170 licences from Jersey Oil & Gas for $6.8M
+3.2% AVAP.LN (Avation £1.28, +0.04) -- AGM statement
+2.5% DFV.GR (DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung €6.44, +0.16) -- 9M earnings
+2.2% SVED.B.SS (Svedbergs Group SEK32.60, +0.70) -- completes acquisition of Thebalux and receives broad support for the upcoming rights issue
+1.8% KOA.NO (Kongsberg Automotive NOK2.11, +0.04) -- contract
+1.6% TELIA.SS (Telia Co. SEK24.51, +0.39) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade
+1.6% SHI.LN (SIG £0.29, -0.00) -- reaffirms the Company's medium-term target of 5% EBIT margin - CMD
Notable Decliners
-26.1% ALPHA.FP (Pharnext €0.01, -0.00) -- study results
-20.4% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK14.54, -3.72) -- is focusing the development portfolio and introduces a cost-savings scheme
-13.2% PA8.GR (Paion €0.32, -0.05) -- its stock exchange listing will be changed from Prime Standard to General Standard of regulated market of Frankfurt Stock Exchange
-12.2% MIRI.LN (Mirriad Advertising £0.02, -0.00) -- appoints new CFO
-4.5% FGP.LN (FirstGroup £1.67, -0.08) -- H1 earnings
-3.7% NFN.GR (NFON €6.82, -0.26) -- 9M earnings
-3.5% WEW.GR (Westwing Group €8.62, -0.31) -- board approves 600K share buy-back program
-3.1% GAV.SW (Carlo Gavazzi Holding CHF312.00, -10.00) -- H1 earnings
-2.6% KGX.GR (Kion Group €32.10, -0.86) -- Stifel downgrade
-2.4% ELE.SM (Endesa €18.86, -0.46) -- CMD
-1.8% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,395.00, -45.00) -- Stifel downgrade
-1.8% SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding CHF557.80, -10.40) -- Bofa downgrade
-1.8% MOTR.LN (Motorpoint Group £0.76, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Elia Group (ELI.BB)
DACHs: Oberbank (OBS.AV), Wustenrot & Wurtembergische (WUW.GR), BKS Bank (BKS.AV)
France: Laurent-Perrier (LPE.FP)
Nordics: Elliptic Laboratories (ELABS.NO), Pyrum Innovations (PYRUM.NO), NRC Group (NRC.NO)
Southern Europe: INTRALOT (INLOT.GA), Lar Espa a Real Estate SOCIMI (LRE.SM)
CMD/events: Allianz (ALV.GR), Axfood (AXFO.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Norway
Q3 GDP (1.9%) y/y vs consensus +1.2% and prior revised +0.3% from +0.7%
Oct Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.5% and prior 3.5%
Nov Flash Manufacturing PMI
France 42.6 vs consensus 43.1 and prior 42.8
Germany 42.3 vs consensus 41.2 and prior 40.8
Eurozone 43.8 vs consensus 43.4 and prior 43.1
France Nov Business Survey 99 vs consensus 98 and prior revised 99 from 98
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 24): ($1.63) or (2.10%) to $76.14
€-$ +0.0020 or +0.18% to 1.0909
£-$ +0.0039 or +0.31% to 1.2534
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8701
S&P 500 +0.20%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.43%
DAX: +14.88%
CAC: +12.42%
MIB: +23.32%
Stoxx 600: +7.90%
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