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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.52%, Hang Seng (1.96%), Shanghai Composite (0.68%) as of 03:10 ET

Nov 24 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities traded mixed Friday. Steep losses in Hong Kong as many property stocks reversed yesterday's gains although many still higher for the week; mainland markets also lower. Australia a little stronger, New Zealand higher as its coalition government was signed in. Japan finished higher although off its peak. Losses elsewhere including in Seoul and Taipei, India slightly lower, Southeast Asia mixed. US futures higher, Europe opened slightly down. US dollar lower, AUD stronger, yen and yuan flat. US Treasury yields higher, JGB yields higher. WTI crude futures lower but Brent higher. Precious metals flat, copper higher among industrial metals but iron ore down again.

    • What started as a positive week for Asia equities petered out somewhat with the Hang Seng reversing yesterday's late gains as property stocks tumbled amid increasing doubts over the sector's financial rescue package. Some economists said the measures will hasten the completion of unfinished housing projects, but will not fix the extent of the funding gap, banks' reluctance to lend, and structural problems including an aging population, falling income growth and high youth unemployment.

    • In other macro news, Japan's core inflation rose by less than forecast though it still well above BOJ's 2% target and services inflation edged higher. Japan flash manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction though services held up. New Zealand retail sales much stronger than expected; the country's new center-right government was signed in after parties struck a coalition agreement. Singapore's industrial production for October rose for the first time in a year.

    • PCCW (8.HK) is considering selling a significant minority stake in its fiber business for around $1B. Chongqing Changan Automobile (000625.CH) is said to be acquiring a 30% stake in Huawei's smart car solution unit which will be spun off from Huawei. Foxconn (Hon Hai, 2317.TT) founder Terry Gou is to drop out of Taiwan's presidential race. LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) and SK On (SK Innovation, 096770.KS) have scaled back their battery manufacturing plans in the US on sluggish demand. BHP Group (BHP.AU) train drivers have paused on their threat of industrial action due to start Friday.

  • Digest:

    • Japan market optimism tempered by puts and takes:

      • Nikkei discussed Japan equity strength as Friday's intraday high in Nikkei 225 surpassed the latest post-bubble high logged on 3-Jul. Highlighted growth stocks as the main driver, overtaking the value theme underpinning gains for much of this year amid the drive to improve PBRs. Noted Topix Growth/Value index ratio fell precipitously since the spring, though rebounding sharply in November. Growth names supported by receding concerns of higher rates. Nikkei also further analyzed fiscal H1 earnings, showing FX windfall accounted for half of the record absolute growth in operating earnings among leading Prime Market constituents. Furthermore, group financial reports masked relatively sluggish earnings growth at the parent level against the backdrop of soft exports. Forward-looking economic implications are limited as focus turns to how companies deploy retained earnings into investments. Bloomberg discussed lackluster market volumes while recent strong sessions have coincided with elevated futures turnover as a sign of speculative positioning. Cited thoughts the market needs fresh catalysts to encourage benchmarks to new highs.

    • Japan core inflation slightly misses, service prices hit 30-year high:

      • Core CPI rose 2.9% y/y in October, compared to consensus 3.0% and follows 2.8% in the previous month. Marks the first acceleration in four months. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation eased to 4.0% from 4.2%, the lowest since March. Energy drags moderated by 0.26 ppt, reflecting smaller declines in electricity and gas prices as government subsidies halved. Partially offset by slower growth in gasoline. Highly weighted non-fresh food prices continued to decelerate alongside disaster insurance premiums while NHK broadcasting fees fell 10%. Outweighed surge in accommodation on the back of tourism growth and moderate acceleration in household durables. Pickup in overall goods prices raised contribution by 0.24 ppt. Closely watched service price inflation edged up to 2.1% -- the highest since 1993. Recall latest BOJ Outlook Report revealed broad upward revisions to inflation forecasts, now projected to remain above the 2% target for the third straight year through FY24. BOJ has acknowledged progress toward achieving price stability, though consistently noted extreme uncertainties as they continue to look for confirmation of a virtuous cycle between wage growth and prices.

    • Japan manufacturing PMI logs deeper contraction, services marginally firmer:

      • Flash manufacturing PMI was 48.1 in November, following 48.7 in the previous month and marks the softest reading since February. Reflected stronger declines in output, new orders and exports. Declines in employment and finished goods inventories eased. Inflation metrics were mixed with softer increases in output prices contrasting with firmer input prices. Services PMI edged up to 51.7 from 51.6 as growth in output and new business accelerated, albeit marginally. Upturn in outstanding orders to an eight-month high placed renewed pressure on capacity. Composite PMI fell to 50.0 from 50.5 on the back of manufacturing softness. Report highlighted silver linings in the stabilization in aggregate outstanding orders, which broke a run of four straight contractions despite sluggish new orders. Price pressures also easing with overall input prices at a 27-month low, though clarified current levels remain well above the historical average. Cited ongoing yen weakness, as well as elevated raw materials, fuel and payroll costs as the main drivers.

    • New Zealand retail sales surprise higher, but RBNZ expected to hold next week:

      • New Zealand retail sales flat in Q3 against expectations for 0.8% q/q decline and Q2s 0.9% contraction. Headline result belied wide variance across categories with motor vehicles and auto parts retailing, and fuel the main drags on overall retail volume, offsetting growth in hardware, building and clothing, footwear categories. Core retail sales rose 1.0%, contrasting with expectations for a 1.5% contraction and Q2's 1.6% decline. Early takeaways noted data suggests tentative bottoming in discretionary spending, aided by recovery in domestic demand and migration. Figures come ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ meeting where expectations are for no change to OCR. Softer-than-expected New Zealand Q3 CPI and employment data, and further weakening of inflation expectations have led markets to price out additional rate hikes. Debate has already shifted to timing of RBNZ's pivot with markets pricing in multiple rate cuts from May 2024, reflecting subdued demand outlook as past rate hikes work their way through economy.

    • China seen to hold MLF rate steady for rest of 2023:

      • Latest Bloomberg survey showed PBOC likely to keep 1Y MLF rate steady at 2.5% for rest of 2023, compared with previous median estimate of five bp cut. 12 out of 20 respondents see MLF rate to be cut by five bp or more in Q1 2024. Economists see authorities will consider adding liquidity via RRR cut or trimming 7D reverse repo rate in Q4 to ensure issuance of sovereign debt. Noted ShanghaiSecuritiesNews also cited analysts and pointed to RRR cut by year-end. Economists see 1Y LPR to hold steady at 3.45% until Q2 while 5Y LPR to hold until next year too. Respondents also expect GDP to grow 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024. CPI expected to rise 0.3% y/y in Q4, lower than previous forecast of 0.5%. PPI seen to fall 2.3% in Q4, worse than a prior estimate of 2.1% drop. Exports likely to drop 2.5% y/y in Q4, far worse than previous expectation of 0.1% increase, while imports seen to decline 0.4%, improving from prior projection of 3% drop.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +6.4% 7011.JP (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries): guides on defense business

      • +4.4% 4004.JP (Resonac Holdings): Reportedly to setup semiconductor facility in Silicon Valley

      • +3.2% 001120.KS (LX International): does not submit final bid to acquire HMM

      • +1.8% 8.HK (PCCW Ltd): report of PCCW thinking of selling minority stake in its fiber business for $1B

      • +1.4% 300122.CH (Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products): Buyout of Polaris Biology

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -30.0% 294090.KS (EOFlow Co.): CEO discloses sale of 664K shares at KRW15,724/share on 20-Nov

      • -10.8% 1929.HK (Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group): Earnings

      • -4.0% 011200.KS (HMM): Conclusion of takeover bid

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • October nationwide core CPI +2.9% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.8% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +4.0% y/y vs consensus +4.1% and +4.2% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +3.3% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and +3.0% in prior month

        • November flash manufacturing PMI 48.1 vs 48.7 in prior month

          • Services PMI 51.7 vs 51.6 in prior month

            • Composite PMI 50.0 vs 50.5 in prior month

      • New Zealand Q3

        • Retail sales 0.0% q/q vs consensus (0.8%) and revised (0.9%) in Q2

          • Core retail sales +1.0% vs consensus (1.5%) and (1.6%) in Q2

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 173.70 or +0.52% to 33625.53

      • Hang Seng: (351.42) or (1.96%) to 17559.42

      • Shanghai Composite: (20.88) or (0.68%) to 3040.97

      • Shenzhen Composite: (20.83) or (1.08%) to 1900.59

      • ASX200: 11.60 or +0.17% to 7040.80

      • KOSPI: (18.33) or (0.73%) to 2496.63

      • SENSEX: (75.77) or (0.11%) to 65942.04

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.13) or (0.08%) to 149.4290

      • $-KRW: (0.73) or (0.06%) to 1300.9100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.28% to 0.6559

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 83.3678

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.04%) to 7.1526

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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