Nov 24 ,2023
Synopsis
European indices are set to struggle for clear direction at the open amidst Asian equities trading mixed Friday. Note US markets to close early Friday.
Latest survey by GfK showed UK consumer confidence rebounded in November. Its measure of sentiment increased 6 points from October's three month low to print -24, the sharpest increase since April (Bloomberg). It compared with the Reuters forecast for a -28 reading and followed a nine point fall in October. All GfK's measures improved in November despite the ongoing cost of living squeeze.
The FT interviewed BoE chief economist Pill, who warned the Bank cannot afford to relent in its battle against high inflation because it sees signs of weakening activity. Said monetary policy was in a difficult phase amid stubbornly high price pressures. Pill noted the slower activity, but believes it is more supply-side driven and may not be associated with an easing of inflationary pressure.
In other central bank happenings today, Bank of Spain's Delgado speech at 9:00CET at event organized by Club de Gestión de Riesgos and de Cos speech at 16:00 at XXVIII Encuentro de Economía en S'Agaró. Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 10:00CET at €20+ (through Sat) organised by Bundesbank, ECB's Lagarde speech at 11:00CET (Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 12:15 on Sat). Riksbank's Flodén will discuss the latest interest rate decision and current monetary policy at 12:00CET at meeting arranged by Nordea. ECB's Guindos remarks followed by a Q&A session at 14:00CET at XVIII Encuentro de Economia. Meanwhile, Deutsche Börse, stock exchange breakfast at 8:30CET "Fantastic for the future - innovations for competitiveness, growth and prosperity"
Also on today's agenda, Estonian PM Kallas hosting Norway's PM Støre whilst EU's Hahn gives a speech at the 'Road to Recovery' conf and EU's Sinkevi�?ius delivers a speech at the Clean Air Forum (Thu-Fri).
Macro data on the calendar include Germany Q3 final GDP, Nov Ifo survey, France Nov consumer confidence, Spain Oct PPI, Sweden Oct PPI, Finland Oct PPI.
In corporate news, NRC Group (NRC.NO) reported Q3 earnings and lowered its FY adjusted EBIT margin guidance to in line with 2022 vs prior moderate increase y/y. Also, in Nordics, Axfood (AXFO.SS) will hold its capital market day today, an update on the group's long-term strategy and its implementation will be provided. In France, Laurent-Perrier (LPE.FP) reported H1 earnings with a revenue of €158.4M vs year-ago €159.4M. In Greece, Ellaktor (ELLAKTOR.GA) and GEK Terna Holding Real Estate Construction (GEKTERNA.GA) issued their 9M earnings report.
In M&A, Bloomberg reported that Swisscom's (SCMN.SW) Fastweb is considering potential deal for Vodafone (VOD.LN) Italy. People with knowledge of the matter say that Fastweb is among the interested parties that have been looking at a potential combination with Vodafone Italy, including Iliad, with which Vodafone has continued to hold on-and-off discussions in recent months about a potential merger of their Italian businesses
Separately, BASF (BAS.GR) in focus amid reports Adnoc exploring potential acquisition of Wintershall Dea
In other corporate development, Reuters reported that Barclays (BARC.LN) is working on a £1B cost savings plan that could involve cutting as many as 2,000 jobs. A person with direct knowledge of the proposal says that the potential job cuts would primarily be at Barclays Execution Services.
Politics/Macro/World News
Israel and Hamas to begin four-day pause in fighting. - BBC
Finland warns Russia it is prepared to shut all border points over migrant pressure - FT
French foreign minister says France 'committed' to dialogue with China - Reuters
ND firmly in driving seat, as PASOK leads SYRIZA in new poll - ekathimerini
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AXFO.SS (Axfood) -- reaffirms its financial targets - CMD
ELI.BB (Elia Group) -- guides FY adjusted ROE towards upper range of 6-7% vs prior guidance between 6-7%
ELABS.NO (Elliptic Laboratories) -- reports Q3 net income (NOK7.0M) vs year-ago NOK7.1M; expects solid revenue growth in 2024 and to be on track to meet the NOK 500M revenue goal in 2025
NRC.NO (NRC Group) -- reports Q3 EPS NOK0.66 vs FactSet NOK0.87 [3 est, NOK0.80-0.95]; lowers FY adj, EBIT margin guidance
LPE.FP (Laurent-Perrier) -- reports H1 EPS €6.52 vs year-ago €6.24
ELLAKTOR.GA (Ellaktor) -- reports 9M net income €25.2M, +62% vs year-ago €15.6M
GEKTERNA.GA (GEK Terna Holding Real Estate Construction) -- reports 9M net income attributable €88.8M ex-items, (5%) vs year-ago €93.2M
Also due to report today:
Earnings:
DACHs: Oberbank (OBS.AV), Wustenrot & Wurtembergische (WUW.GR), BKS Bank (BKS.AV)
Nordics: Pyrum Innovations (PYRUM.NO)
Southern Europe: INTRALOT (INLOT.GA), Lar Espa a Real Estate SOCIMI (LRE.SM)
CMD/events: Allianz (ALV.GR)
M&A
BAS.GR (BASF SE) -- Adnoc exploring potential acquisition of Wintershall Dea - Bloomberg
MAREL.IR (Marel) -- receives unsolicited non-binding initial proposal regarding potential offer for all shares in the company
VOD.LN (Vodafone Group) -- Swisscom's Fastweb considering potential deal for Vodafone Italy - Bloomberg
ICAD.FP (Icade) -- completes the sale of the grand Central building in MARSEILLE
EQS.FP (Equasens Group) -- acquires ADV, which becomes PHARMAGEST Germany, through a holding company 6%-held by ARZ HAAN and 94%-held by EQUASENS.
Healthcare
SYAB.GR (Synlab) -- Elliott Investment Management discloses 6.5% stake in Synlab (23-Nov, 14:55 CET)
AMBEA.SS (Ambea) -- ACTR Holding AB sells 8.4M Ambea AB shares via placement at SEK43.50/sh
Other
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- working on £1B cost savings plan; could involve cutting as many as 2,000 jobs - Reuters (23-Nov, 16:28 GMT)
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- annouces that the The functions of Chairman and CEO will be combined
KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen) -- Kongsberg, Norway and Germany to develop new "Super Missile"
Key rating changes
Upgrades
LSS.FP (Lectra) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
SOON.SW (Sonova Holding) -- to outperform from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
EVK.GR (Evonik Industries) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
CON.GR (Continental) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays, to buy from neutral at Citi
FRVIA.FP (Forvia) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
ELE.SM (Endesa) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- to underweight from overweight at Barclays
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
Initiations
DLG.IM (De'Longhi) -- neutral at Oddo
Others
BPT.LN (Bridgepoint Group) -- reinstated neutral at JPMorgan; prior rating was underweight
Data
Nikkei +0.52% to 33625.53
Hang Seng (1.80%) to 17588.20
Shanghai Composite (0.66%) to 3041.71
S&P futures +2.5 vs prior close of 4567.3
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0905
$-¥ (0.17) or (0.11%) to 149.37
€-¥ (0.19) or (0.12%) to 162.89
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