Nov 27 ,2023
Synopsis:
European indices ended lower. Real estate the best performing sector, whilst travel/leisure, health care and banks the main laggards.
ECB President Lagarde said medium term inflation surrounded by considerable uncertainty. ECB's Muller the latest to suggest no further rate hikes. Bond vigilantes starting to focus on Germany, spreads of most EZ bonds narrowing after Chancellor Scholz's government compelled to suspend debt brake for 2023 and retroactively account for a minimum of €37B in new off-budget debt aimed at alleviating impact of soaring electricity and gas prices on households and consumers. Constitutional court ruling on 15-November put ~€130B in spending for 2024 through to 2027 at stake.
UK press suggest PM Sunak to decide on whether to cut taxes again and date of general election in February. Also, BoE Governor Bailey has tried to dampen expectations over the inflation outlook. With inflation set to ease into year-end, Bailey told ChronicleLive next leg to reduce inflation will be hard. Welcomed recent data developments but said it would take time to reach 2% target.
Quiet on the macro front. UK survey showed drop in advertised salaries and increase in jobs vacancies, while CBI retail sales report came in better than forecast.
On the corporate front, banking sector in focus with Julius Baer (BAER.SW) as it issued an update on private debt exposure in light of recent market developments and reconfirmed its capital distribution policy; related, local Swiss press reports that the SNB doesn't rule out increase in minimum reserve requirements for Swiss banks; also, in Italy, UniCredit (UCG.IM) stated that it remains well above all capital requirements following Bank of Italy methodological review of O-SII's capital buffers. Elsewhere, Aryzta (ARYN.SW) and Rightmove (RMV.LN) issued their most recent trading updates, whilst Uniper (UN01.GR) was notified of an award of ~€550M against a subsidiary in arbitration proceedings. bpost (BPOST.BB) shares fell following reports suggesting it will not retain press distribution contracts; the company says it hasn't been informed of any decision.
In M&A news, Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC.GR) entered into a Business Combination agreement with Schaeffler AG (SHA.GR), also increasing its offer price to €94/sh from €91/sh. In France, Casino Group (CO.FP) has confirmed having received preliminary expressions of interest with a view to acquiring stores in the hypermarket and supermarket perimeter and - at the same time announced the acquisition of GPA's 34.0% stake in Cnova (CNV.FP) for €10M. Out of the Netherlands, ASR Nederland (ASRNL.NA) confirmed a non-binding offers for Knab; in Spain, Brookfield (BN) and BlackRock (BLK) are interested in Endesa (ELE.SM) renewables business worth €1.2B.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Dec consumer confidence - GfK, France Nov consumer confidence and Eurozone Oct M3 money supply.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Real Estate+1.15%, Utilities +0.68%, Media +0.33%, Telecom +0.23%, Retail +0.10%, Technology (0.10%), Construct & Mtls (0.14%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.26%), Insurance (0.26%), Oil & Gas (0.28%)
Underperformers
Travel & Leisure (0.88%), Health Care (0.66%), Banks (0.59%), Chemicals (0.58%), Autos & Parts (0.48%), Financial Svcs (0.47%), Food & Beverage (0.38%), Basic Resources (0.38%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.33%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
ECB's inflation fight progressing but not yet done: Lagarde -- Reuters
Bank of England governor warns of tough times ahead in battle to lower inflation -- ChronicleLive
EU:
Some EU Nations Push to Weaken Russia Sanctions Enforcement Plan -- Bloomberg
Foreign Affairs Council (Trade), 27 November 2023 -- European Council
UK:
Germany:
German government to agree budget fixes as way out of crisis -- Reuters
Federal government approves supplementary budget for 2023 -- Germany Federal Ministry of Finance
France:
France Criticizes 'Hydrogen Ready' Plans for Gas Power Plants -- Bloomberg
Italy:
Italy's expanded RePowerEU package gets EC nod -- RenewablesNow
Italy, Saudi Arabia discuss investments in automotive, mining, oil -- Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+10.0% F3C.GR (SFC Energy €20.10, +1.82) -- announces mid-term targets for 2028
+6.0% AMP.SM (Amper €0.09, +0.01) -- announces total subscription commitments for new shares represent ~41.28% of the capital increase
+4.8% RMV.LN (Rightmove £5.34, +0.24) -- FY trading and outlook update; Peel Hunt and Numis upgrade
+4.5% EPWN.LN (Epwin Group £0.69, +0.03) -- FY trading update
+4.2% ALPHA.FP (Pharnext €0.00, -0.00) -- decides not to sign any exclusivity agreement for PXT3003 at this stage
+3.7% SHC.LN (Shaftesbury Capital £1.21, +0.04) -- trading update
+2.9% MATAS.DC (Matas DKK108.00, +3.00) -- re-initiated buy at SEB
+2.9% JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey £16.00, +0.44) -- BofA upgrade
+2.8% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK242.40, +6.60) -- initiated buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
+2.3% EAH.LN (Eco Animal Health Group £1.10, +0.03) -- H1 earnings
+1.8% UN01.GR (Uniper €4.03, +0.07) -- notified of award of ~€550M against a subsidiary in arbitration proceedings
+1.4% ELIOR.FP (Elior Group €2.43, +0.03) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
Notable Decliners
-20.4% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments £1.51, -0.40) -- updates FY guidance
-11.9% BPOST.BB (bpost €4.62, -0.61) -- Media reports suggest bpost will not retain press distribution contracts
-10.6% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.02, -0.00) -- agreement on Convertible Loan Note Refinancing
-7.1% ARYN.SW (Aryzta CHF1.62, -0.12) -- Q5 (13 week period to 28-Oct) revenue
-6.5% CNV.FP (Cnova €1.44, -0.10) -- Groupe Casino announces acquisition of GPA's 34.0% stake in Cnova for €10M
-6.3% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.69, -0.05) -- onfirms having received preliminary expressions of interest with a view to acquiring stores in the hypermarket and supermarket perimeter; announces acquisition of GPA's 34.0% stake in Cnova for €10M
-3.8% ZIN.LN (Zinc Media Group £0.95, -0.04) -- FY trading update
-3.1% BAS.GR (BASF SE €43.22, -1.39) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-2.7% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €23.30, -0.65) -- Q3 earnings
-2.3% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK243.60, -5.70) -- Deutsche Fussball-Liga expects at least four bids for marketing rights - Reuters; Nordea downgrade
-1.8% SHA.GR (Schaeffler €5.03, -0.09) -- Vitesco Technologies Group enters into Business Combination agreement with company; resumed underperform at BofA
-1.3% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €113.20, -1.50) -- French government gives green light for reform allowing an overhaul of airport pricing agreements -- Les Echos
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Dottikon ES (DESN.SW), GK Software (GKS.GR), PharmaSGP (PSG.GR), ADLER Group (ADJ.GR)
France: Trigano (TRI.FP), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP)
Nordics: Nekkar (NKR.NO)
UK: easyJet (EZJ.LN), Pets At Home (PETS.LN), GB Group (GBG.LN), Renew (RNWH.LN), Marlowe (MRL.LN), Greencore (GNC.LN), Focusrite (TUNE.LN), Treatt (TET.LN), Vp (VP.LN), Loungers (LGRS.LN), Brickability (BRCK.LN), IG Design (IGR.LN), Supreme (SUP.LN), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN)
Data:
Economics:
UK Nov CBI Distributive Trades (11) vs consensus (30) and prior (36)
Norway Oct retail sales +0.6% m/m vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (0.3%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 24): ($0.16) or (0.21%) to $75.38
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.12%) to 1.0931
£-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.2601
€-£ (0.0013) to 0.8673
S&P 500 (0.14%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +0.12%
DAX: +14.67%
CAC: +12.23%
MIB: +23.82%
Stoxx 600: +7.89%
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