Nov 28 ,2023
Synopsis
European indices are set to open little changed to lower amid Asian equities trading mixed Tuesday. No change in recent market drivers. Equity markets easing after recent strength. Focus still on central bank policy outlook. Policymakers continues to pushback on rate cut expectations. ECB's Cos said it was too soon to talk about rate cuts. Similar comments from other ECB officials in recent sessions. BoE Governor Bailey also said on Monday it was too premature to talk about rate cuts.
On the agenda for today, Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery of France, Bruno Le Maire, among the speakers at Investir Day. Chancellor Scholz hosts Malta's PM Abela. EU's Breton speech at the World Nuclear Exhibition (through Thu) whilst EU's Simson speech at the 4th PCI Energy Days and EU's Sinkevi�?ius speech at Ukraine Green Recovery conf. In Norway, Court hears lawsuit against government over development of three new oil fields (thorough 6-Dec). NATO foreign ministers meeting (through Wed) and IEFA Conf of Paris (through Wed). In UK, there's MPs questions on energy security and net zero, whilst committee topics include Channel 4 (10:00GMT), the collapse of Wilko (10:00), Autumn Statement (10:15 OBR execs and a gain at 14:15, IFS, others), UK accession to Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
In central banks, Bank of Spain's de Cos speech at 2:15CET HKMA-BIS High-Level Conf (livestream). BOE's Ramsden speech at 1:20GMT at a Hong Kong Monetary Authority conf, Bailey panellist at FT Global Banking Summit, Haskel speech at 17:00GMT at Warwick University. Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 9:00CET title "Inflation Tide after Peak: What Next?" at event hosted by Central Bank of Cyprus. ECB's McCaul panellist at 13:30CET at FT Global Banking Summit whilst Riksbank's Flodén speech at 16:30CET during a conf organized by the National Confederation of Savings Banks. ECB's Lagarde speech at 17:00CET at EFRAG and ECB's Lane speech at 19:30CET at event organised by Harvard University. Norges Bank Investment Management press seminar at 10:00CET on unlisted equity investments in the Government Pension Fund Global.
Macro data on the calendar include: Germany Dec consumer confidence - GfK, France Nov consumer confidence, Denmark Oct retail sales, Eurozone Oct M3 money supply, Ireland Oct retail sales
In corporate news, Novartis (NOVN.SW) upgraded its mid-term sales guidance to 5% CAGR (2022-27), with core operating income margin of ~40%+ by 2027, driven by continued strong momentum of key growth drivers. In Germany, ADLER Group (ADJ.GR) reported 9M earnings and confirmed its FY net rental income of €207-219M. In Norway, Avance Gas Holding (AGAS.NO), Cool Co. (CLCO.NO) and Dolphin Drilling AS (DDRIL.NO) reported Q3 earnings. Also, in Norway, Vow ASA (VOW.NO) issued today its capital market day targeting a normalised EBITDA margin of 15% during H2 of 2024 and comprehensive plan for controlled and profitable growth.
In other corporate developments, the FT reported that Barclays (BARC.LN) is considering dropping thousands of clients at investment bank as part of strategic overhaul. People close to the situation tell the FT that as part of Barclays' plans to save £1B, it is likely to focus on cutting ties with its least profitable investment banking clients, which could see an end to relationships with more than 2,500 customers out of a total of over 10,000.
Also due to report today, Trigano (TRI.FP), Dottikon ES (DESN.SW), GK Software (GKS.GR), easyJet (EZJ.LN), Pets At Home (PETS.LN), GB Group (GBG.LN), Renew (RNWH.LN), Marlowe (MRL.LN), Greencore (GNC.LN), RWE (RWE.GR), Rolls-Royce (RR.LN) and Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR).
Politics/Macro/World News
Inflation in UK Shops Falls to a 17-Month Low - Bloomberg
UK Voters Skeptical Hunt's Tax Cuts Will Improve Their Finances - Bloomberg
BoE leads central bank chorus on need for restrictive policy - Reuters
Britain's Sunak cancels meeting with Greek PM in row over Parthenon sculptures - Reuters
Eleven Israelis and 33 Palestinians freed as truce extended - BBC
Top company news
Earnings/updates
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- upgrades mid-term sales guidance to 5% CAGR (2022-27), with core operating income margin of ~40%+ by 2027, driven by continued strong momentum of key growth drivers -- R&D Day
ADJ.GR (ADLER Group) -- reports 9M FFO (€7.0M) vs year-ago €68.0M; confirms guidance for FY net rental income of €207-219M
AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding) -- reports Q3 EPS $0.39 vs FactSet $0.58 [6 est, $0.55-0.61]
VOW.NO (Vow ASA) -- to target normalised EBITDA margin of 15% during H2 of 2024 and comprehensive plan for controlled and profitable growth -- CMD
CLCO.NO (Cool Co.) -- reports Q3 net income $39.2M vs FactSet $31.0M
DDRIL.NO (Dolphin Drilling AS) -- reports Q3 EPS ($0.01) vs FactSet $0.00
BRNL.NA (Brunel) -- hosting Capital Markets Event today; to present update on its strategy and growth plans for the period 2024-2027
Also due to report today
Earnings:
DACHs: Dottikon ES (DESN.SW), GK Software (GKS.GR), PharmaSGP (PSG.GR)
France: Trigano (TRI.FP), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP)
Nordics: Nekkar (NKR.NO)
UK: easyJet (EZJ.LN), Pets At Home (PETS.LN), GB Group (GBG.LN), Renew (RNWH.LN), Marlowe (MRL.LN), Greencore (GNC.LN), Focusrite (TUNE.LN), Treatt (TET.LN), Vp (VP.LN), Loungers (LGRS.LN), Brickability (BRCK.LN), IG Design (IGR.LN), Supreme (SUP.LN), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN)
Trading Update: Safestore (SAFE.LN), Precia (ALPM.FP), DP Eurasia (DPEU.LN)
CMD/events: RWE (RWE.GR), Rolls-Royce (RR.LN), Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) capital market outlook 2024, Vattenfall (+VATTENF.SS), HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA (HLE.GR), Scandi Standard (SCST.SS), Sandvik (SAND.SS), Cerillion (CER.LN), BONESUPPORT HOLDING (BONEX.SS), Haypp Group (HAYPP.SS), Next 15 Group (NFG.LN), Westwing Group (WEW.GR)
M&A
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- Sika acquires 30% stake in Finnish startup company specializing in highly innovative concrete floors Concria Oy; financial details not provided
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- to become reference shareholder in EFESO Management Consultants; terms undisclosed
RTN.LN (Restaurant Group) -- The Restaurant Group reports shareholder approval of previously announced agreement to be acquired by affiliate of Apollo
COK.GR (CANCOM) -- announces acquisition of IT Consulting & Services business of DextraData GmbH; terms undisclosed
UPONOR.FH (Uponor) -- Georg Fischer announces final result of the subsequent offer period of GF's voluntary recommended public cash tender offer for all shares in Uponor
ABY.AU (Adore Beauty Group) -- holder Quadrant PE may seek to sell 32.59% stake into a firm offer from The Hut Group - The Australian
ROL.SW (Von Roll Holding) -- AG notes ALTANA AG announces completion of the tender offer and initiates squeeze-out procedure under takeover law
SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- signs agreement for acquisition of ROBUR Industry Service Group GmbH in Germany
Healthcare
STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics) -- Chairman Hans Peter Hasler acquires 2.0M shares at 6.1p/sh
Other
UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- launches convertible bond offering for a nominal amount of ~ €500M
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- considering dropping thousands of clients at investment bank as part of strategic overhaul - FT
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- releases presentation relating to the update of the current trading of its supermarkets and hypermarkets
BPOST.BB (bpost) -- notes no decision taken yet regarding press distribution contracts
Cathay Pacific Airways leaning towards ordering around six Airbus A350 freighters - Reuters
Headlines highlight nearshoring, supply chain resiliency as fueling industrial demand
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DWS.GR (DWS Group) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
ASHM.LN (Ashmore Group) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
MRL.SM (MERLIN Properties SOCIMI) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
CON.GR (Continental) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
SN.LN (Smith & Nephew) --to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
Downgrades
ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
EMG.LN ( Man Group) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
SAVE.SS (Nordet) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- to hold from buy at DZ Bank
PSON.LN (Pearson) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
BIG.FP (Bigben Interactive) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
Initiations
FRAS.LN (Frasers Group) -- overweight at Barclays
MNG.LN (M&G Plc) -- buy at Goldman Sachs
BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion) -- re hold at SEB
BMK.NO (Benchmark Holdings) -- buy at Arctic Securities
COOR.SS (Coor Service Management Holding) -- hold at Nordea
Others
GLEN.LN (Glencore) -- reinstated outperform at RBC Capital Markets; prior rating was outperform
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reinitiated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
ENAV.IM (ENAV) -- reinitiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV) -- reinitiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reinitiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- reinitiated reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei (0.12%) to 33408.39
Hang Seng (0.82%) to 17381.55
Shanghai Composite +0.14% to 3036.08
S&P futures +2.5 vs prior close of 4561.0
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0949
$-¥ (0.38) or (0.25%) to 148.31
€-¥ (0.48) or (0.29%) to 162.38
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