Nov 28 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to lower. Portugal +1.1%, Spain and Austria both +0.7% lead outperformers, whilst, Denmark (2.4%), Norway (1.0%) and Sweden (0.6%) lead underperformers.
No change in recent market drivers. Equity markets easing after recent strength. Focus still on central bank policy outlook. Policymakers continue to push back on rate cut expectations. ECB's Cos and Nagel said it was too soon to talk about rate cuts. Similar comments from other ECB officials in recent sessions. Lagarde hinted Monday quicker balance sheet runoff. BoE Governor Bailey also said was too premature to talk about rate cuts. Deputy chief Ramsden said rate outlook data dependent although hawk Haskel defended higher-for-longer stance.
Elsewhere, Israel-Hamas ceasefire extended by another two days. Some chatter that OPEC+ meeting could be delayed again as talks remain difficult.
On the macro-front, German Gfk consumer confidence beat forecast. France's reading via Insee also improved. UK shop price inflation slowed to lowest rate in a year. Industry data shows UK property sellers accepting larger discounts to complete sales. Also, Eurozone Oct M3 Money Supply contracted by a further (1.0%) vs consensus (0.9%) and prior (1.2%)
In corporate news, out of the UK, Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN) issued a CMD update, with current trading is in line with expectations and guidance for 2023 being reconfirmed; also it set mid-term targets to deliver record future performance and also announced a group-wide divestment program as well as proposed 2,000-2,500 reduction in roles worldwide; EasyJet (EZJ.LN) reported FY numbers and reinstated dividends whilst local press wrote that Barclays (BARC.LN) is considering dropping thousands of clients at investment bank as part of strategic overhaul. In the DACH region, Novartis (NOVN.SW), upgraded mid-term sales guidance to 5% CAGR (2022-27), whilst ADLER Group (ADJ.GR) posted weaker that expected 9M. In France, ATOS SE (ATO.FP) announced a market update based on recent developments in the media as well as the S&P change ratings; Veolia (VIE.FP) signed agreement to sell the activities of its subsidiary SADE to NGE for €260M and SPIE (SPIE.FP) acquired ROBUR Industry Service Group GmbH in Germany.
Looking ahead to next week's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 27-Nov to 1-Dec attached) Prosus (PRX.NA), CA Immobilien Anlagen (CAI.AV), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Aroundtown (AT1.GR), ADLER Real Estate (ADL.GR), Pennon (PNN.LN), Impax Asset Management (IPX.LN), Halfords (HFD.LN), Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), Acerinox (ACX.SM), Orkla (ORK.NO) and Roche Holding (ROG.SW) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will includeGermany Nov preliminary CPI, Eurozone Nov economic sentiment, UK Oct mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Sweden Q3 final GDP, Oct trade balance, retail sales, Spain Nov preliminary CPI, Oct retail sales, Italy Nov business/consumer confidence, Switzerland Nov economic sentiment - ZEW, Italy Oct PPI, Belgium Nov CPI, Ireland Nov preliminary HICP
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Utilities +0.65%, Banks +0.39%, Travel & Leisure +0.30%, Energy+0.24%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.21%, Basic Resources +0.19%, Retail +0.15%, Telecom +0.06%, Construct & Mtls +0.02%, Financial Svcs (0.06%), Insurance (0.21%), Media (0.20%), Technology (0.24%),
Underperformers:
Health Care (1.40%), Consumer Products and Services (1.32%), Real Estate (0.72%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.66%), Autos & Parts (0.38%), Chemicals (0.35%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
EU
Mortgage rebound slows pace of eurozone credit contraction - FT
UK
UK Watchdog Casts Doubt on Sunak Claim He's on Track to Cut Debt - Bloomberg
No Prospect UK Rates Will Be Cut Soon, BOE's Haskel Says - Bloomberg
Britain's gas storage site begins supplying grid amid cold snap - The Telegraph
City minister tells UK regulators to allow more risk-taking - FT
Germany
Scholz's reassuring speech on the budget - Handelsblatt, DW
France
France seeks ban on ultra-right groups in effort to quell racial tensions - FT
Finland
Finland will close Russian border for 2 weeks to stop asylum seekers - Reuters
Netherlands
Week after shock Wilders win, Dutch government talks set to begin - Reuters
Greece
Greece to repay more eurozone bailout loans ahead of schedule - ekathimerini
Greek officials angry, puzzled after UK's Sunak scraps leaders' meeting - ekathimerini, The Guardian
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+23.4% DPEU.LN (Dp Eurasia £0.85, +0.16) -- 10M trading update; offer from Jubilant FoodWorks to acquire up-to-51.2% remaining stake in the company at up-to-85p/sh
+12.7% ANOT.SS (Anoto Group SEK0.27, +0.03) -- $1.1M procurement and software licensing agreement with Deutsche Telekom AG.
+9.2% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.58, +0.05) -- biometric sensor solutions orders
+5.9% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £2.57, +0.14) -- looking at options to exit the Rolls-Royce Electrical; proproses staff reduction worldwide; CMD update
+5.1% IQG.LN (IQGeo Group £2.68, +0.13) -- to host Capital Markets Day tomorrow
+4.2% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £4.23, +0.17) -- FY earnings
+3.3% BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion SEK119.40, +3.80) -- updates FY guidance; reinitiated hold at SEB
+2.8% ORX.SS (Orexo SEK14.86, +0.40) -- New Drug Application filing for OX124 accepted for review by FDA
+2.4% ROL.SW (Von Roll Holding CHF0.85, +0.02) -- notes ALTANA AG announces completion of the tender offer and initiates squeeze-out procedure under takeover law
+2.1% JSG.LN (Johnson Service Group £1.33, +0.03) -- completes share buyback programme
+1.9% PACT.SS (Proact IT Group SEK84.50, +1.60) -- share repurchase program of up to 10% of its total number of outstanding shares
+1.8% METN.SW (Metall Zug CHF1,400.00, +25.00) -- form JV with Miele in infection control, life science
Trading Lower:
-18.7% MRL.LN (Marlowe £4.13, -0.94) -- H1 earnings
-11.0% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding NOK156.00, -19.20) -- Q3 earnings
-10.0% ARGX.BB (argenx €406.50, -45.60) -- ADVANCE-SC study evaluating VYVGART Hytrulo ails to meet primary, secondary endpoints
-8.8% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK7.15, -0.69) -- Fearnley downgrade
-8.4% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €26.90, -2.48) -- places ~ €500M convertible bonds
-6.8% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €5.91, -0.43) -- market update
-6.7% NKR.NO (Nekkar NOK8.16, -0.59) -- Q3 earnings
-5.9% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK2.80, -0.18) -- Q2 earnings
-5.5% TRMD.A.DC (TORM Plc DKK202.20, -11.80) -- 2.81M share block being shopped through Morgan Stanley, we're told
-5.3% TUNE.LN (Focusrite £4.50, -0.25) -- FY earnings
-4.7% GNC.LN (Greencore Group £0.97, -0.05) -- FY earnings, Peel Hunt downgrade
-4.7% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group CHF43.34, -2.15) -- BofA downgrade; Morgan Stanley downgrade
-4.7% ADJ.GR (ADLER Group €0.30, -0.02) -- 9M earnings
-4.6% EMG.LN (Man Group £2.07, -0.10) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-3.8% SAGA.LN (Saga Plc £1.20, -0.05) -- CEO steps down
-3.5% PSON.LN (Pearson £9.34, -0.34) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-3.4% GBG.LN (GB Group £2.48, -0.09) -- H1 earnings
-1.9% SAFE.LN (Safestore Holdings £7.62, -0.15) -- Q4 revenue
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Prosus (PRX.NA)
DACHs: CA Immobilien Anlagen (CAI.AV), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Aroundtown (AT1.GR), ADLER Real Estate (ADL.GR), Novem (NVM.GR), Addex Therapeutics Ltd. (ADXN.SW)
France: SII (SII.FP)
Nordics: Panoro Energy (PEN.NO), Viaplay Group (VPLAY.A.SS)
Southern Europe: AEDAS Homes (AEDAS.SM), Ibersol (IBS.PL)
UK: Pennon (PNN.LN), Impax Asset Management (IPX.LN), Halfords (HFD.LN), Benchmark (BMK.LN), Braemar (BMS.LN)
Trading Update: Quadient (QDT.FP)
CMD/events: Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), Acerinox (ACX.SM), Orkla (ORK.NO), Roche Holding (ROG.SW)
Data:
Economics:
France Nov Consumer Confidence 87 vs consensus 84 and prior 84
Germany Dec GfK Consumer Confidence (27.8) vs consensus (27.9) and prior revised to (28.3) from (28.1)
Denmark Oct Retail Sales +3.7% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior +1.7%
Eurozone Oct M3 Money Supply (1.0%) vs consensus (0.9%) and prior (1.2%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$1.85 or +2.47% to $76.71
€-$ +0.0038 or +0.35% to 1.0994
£-$ +0.0063 or +0.50% to 1.2690
€-£ (0.0013) to 0.8663
S&P 500 +0.36%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.05%
DAX: +14.86%
CAC: +11.99%
MIB: +23.83%
Stoxx 600: +7.57%
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