Nov 29 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities largely lower Wednesday. Hang Seng down sharply to lowest close in a year with heavy selling of tech and China property names, mainland China and Japan lower too, Kospi and Taiex little changed, ASX logged mild gains. South East Asia mixed, India trading higher, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures nudging higher. Treasuries extended rallies with yields continued to drop, JGBs and Aussie bonds both firmer. Yen strength was sustained amid dollar weakness, taking USD/JPY down to a two-and-a-half-month low. Crude seeing mild gains, gold higher too.
Bond market in focus with Treasury yields extending overnight drop and dollar tracking for its largest monthly fall in a year, came after latest remarks from Fed officials, including perceived dovish tinge to Governor Waller's comment suggesting possibility of rate cut. Meanwhile rate repricing is also renewing concern that markets are again overestimating likelihood and extent of dovish pivot next year. Fed and other central bank officials are also sticking with higher-for-longer stance and there are concerns inflation will not fall as quickly as implied in market pricing.
In other developments, RBNZ left OCR unchanged as expected, but policy statement leaned hawkish. Central bank warned of further rate hikes if domestic demand pressures persist and inflation surprises higher. Also modelled higher OCR peak in 2024 and delayed projected rate cuts further into 2025. Bank of Thailand also kept benchmark rate steady as expected while lowering economic growth forecast for both 2023 and 2024. Australian monthly inflation fell by more than forecast, driven by falls in multiple CPI components, including discretionary categories and housing. BOJ board member Adachi said it premature to debate negative rate policy exit. Asia's first ETF tracking Saudi Arabia equities debuted in Hong Kong.
Toyota Motor (7203.JP) and two affiliates, Toyota Industries (6201.JP), Aisin (7259.JP), plan to sell about 10% or JPY589B ($4B) of their stakes in Denso (6902.JP) as soon as this month. Alibaba (9988.HK) founder Jack Ma urged company to correct course in internal memo and praised rival PDD (PDD). Alipay to sell entire 3.44% stake in Zomato (543320.IN). Meituan (3690.HK) shares plunged after warned of growth slowdown in Q4.
Digest:
Thailand keeps policy rate unchanged as expected:
Bank of Thailand MPC voted unanimously to maintain 1D repurchase rate rate at 2.50%, matching consensus. Reuters poll of 28 economists showed median forecasts predicting no policy change until at least July-25. BOT had previously hiked the rate by 200 bp for eight straight times since Aug-22 to curb inflation. MPC said it deemed current policy rate conducive to keeping inflation sustainably within target range, fostering long-term macro-financial stability by preempting build-up of financial imbalances, and ensuring sufficient policy space amid uncertain outlook. BOT cut economic growth forecast in 2023 to 2.4% from 2.8%, and 3.2% from 4.4% for 2024 or 3.8% if factoring in government's digital wallet scheme. Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said yesterday interest rates in emerging economies trailing advanced peers is boosting currency volatility and posing challenges to capital flows, while also highlighted elevated levels of Thai household debt and less spending by foreign visitors (Bloomberg).
RBNZ on hold, but warns of further rate hikes if inflation surprises higher:
RBNZ left OCR on hold at 5.50% as expected though policy statement leaned hawkish. MPC agreed current OCR is contractionary and is restricting demand, but warned ongoing excess demand and inflationary pressures are of concern and if inflation comes in stronger-than-expected OCR will likely need to rise further. RBNZ modelled OCR peaking at ~5.7% in 2024 (vs 5.59% peak modelled in August), before falling in mid-2025. RBNZ again upgraded estimate of neutral OCR, to 2.50% from 2.25%, implying policy less contractionary than assumed in August. Discussed two scenarios, one of persistent domestic demand feeding into higher inflation, and one of sharper slowdown in global growth that reduces exports. Noted asymmetry in distributions of risks to the outlook given high level of core inflation. Short-term upside risks have eventuated since August. Global slowdown would likely unwind additional inflation pressure recently observed but further domestic demand strength would likely necessitate further tightening.
Australian inflation cools by more than forecast, strengthening case for December pause:
Australian October inflation fell to 4.9% y/y from September's 5.6% and undershot consensus 5.2%. While headline result was driven by steep all in automotive fuel, underlying inflation also dropped to 5.1% from 5.5%. Several components of CPI basket weakened with clothing and footwear prices declining at a faster rate, and rental, furnishings and household equipment and electricity inflation slowing sharply. Result eroded already slim probability of a December RBA rate hike after October retail sales unexpectedly shrank. Remarking Tuesday RBA Governor Bullock pointed to economy's resilience and persistent domestic pricing pressures. However, she also noted RBA needs to be a "little careful" with further tightening following November's rate hike, in order to avoid imposing excessive burden on economy. February still seen as a more likely month for a rate hike, though this will hinge on upcoming data, including more monthly inflation, employment and retail sales prints, Q3 GDP and Q4 CPI.
BOJ's Adachi says latest YCC tweaks still aimed at sustainable easing:
In a speech, board member Adachi said latest YCC tweaks were an extension of the goal to maintain easing in a sustainable manner. In multiple references, Adachi dismissed external perceptions the Bank was laying the path toward normalization. Added they were still not at the stage that would warrant discussion of exit strategies in light of the current economic environment and reaffirmed support for persist easing. Stressed the inflation reaching 2% is not the only goal, and confirmation of a virtuous cycle between wages and prices is imperative. While acknowledging "green shoots" have started to appear, it has yet to reach the stage where this condition has been met. Also noted BOJ remains prepared for downside risks to the economy. Still, BOJ attributing increasing importance on the signal value of bond yields, particularly in light of pandemic impacts on inflation, underling the significance of BOJ's recalibration of the balance between easing vs side effects. Also emphasized that BOJ does not view YCC as redundant because a sharp rise in the 10y yield far above 1% would lift real rates, depleting easing effects and hindering the transition towards a virtuous wage/price cycle.
As bond rally continues, markets may be too optimistic on 2024 rate cuts:
Bond market rallying in Asian trade Wednesday with Treasury yields extending overnight drop and dollar tracking for its largest monthly fall in a year. Latest move comes after Fed Governor Waller suggested possibility of rate cut if inflation continues to fall. While Waller's remarks made in context of academic theory and Taylor Rule, markets perceived them as dovish. However, rate repricing is also renewing concern that markets are again overestimating likelihood and extent of dovish pivot next year. Futures pricing in almost 100 bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024, while derivatives markets show record long positioning in SOFR futures (Bloomberg). Fed and other central bank officials also sticking with their higher-for-longer stance and there are concerns inflation will not fall as quickly as implied in market pricing given upside pressures from strong wage growth, sticky services prices and withdrawal of government subsidies (FT).
Notable Gainers:
+13.5% 542066.IN (Adani Total Gas): launches green hydrogen blending pilot project in India
+6.1% 6201.JP (Toyota Industries): Toyota Industries, Aisin reportedly planning to participate in sale of Denso shares
+4% 000120.KS (CJ Logistics): Indian subsidiary CJ Darcl submits pre-IPO review request to SEBI
+1.7% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports October global production +16.7% y/y to 900,285
+0% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): invests KRW40.30B to set up metaverse JV with Naver Z
Notable Decliners:
-12.2% 3690.HK (Meituan): reports Q3 results; expects Q4 revenue growth for food delivery to will be slightly lower than Q3's rate
-7.6% 973.HK (L'Occitane International): reports H1 net income attributable €34.0M vs year-ago €61.8M, revenue €1.07B vs year-ago €900.5M and preliminary result of €1.07B
-5.5% 8136.JP (Sanrio): launches ¥30.0B euro-yen denominated convertible bond due 2028
-4.3% 5406.JP (Kobe Steel): issues zero coupon convertible bonds due 2028, 2030 for a total of ¥50B
-0.9% 241.HK (Alibaba Health Information Technology): reports H1 adjusted net income CNY642.5M, +83% vs year-ago CNY351.6M, revenue CNY12.96B vs FactSet CNY12.88B; buys healthcare business from Taobao for total consideration of HK$13.51B; CEO Zhu Shunyan resigns, effective today
Data:
Economic:
Australia
Q3 construction work done +1.3% q/q vs consensus +0.3% and +0.4% in Q2
October CPI 4.9% y/y vs consensus +5.2% and +5.6% in September
Markets:
Nikkei: (87.17) or (0.26%) to 33321.22
Hang Seng: (360.70) or (2.08%) to 16993.44
Shanghai Composite: (16.87) or (0.56%) to 3021.69
Shenzhen Composite: (14.95) or (0.78%) to 1889.85
ASX200: 20.10 or +0.29% to 7035.30
KOSPI: (1.95) or (0.08%) to 2519.81
SENSEX: 528.72 or +0.80% to 66702.92
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.12) or (0.08%) to 147.3710
$-KRW: (0.14) or (0.01%) to 1287.9900
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.21%) to 0.6636
$-INR: (0.09) or (0.10%) to 83.2958
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1324
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