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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.50%, Hang Seng +0.29%, Shanghai Composite +0.26% as of 03:10 ET

Nov 30 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian markets ended with a tick higher into the close Thursday, finishing off a strong month for equities. The Hang Seng once more struggled for significant positive traction but finished mildly higher to recapture 17K. Mainland China bourses were mixed; tech stocks led Australia, South Korea and Taiwan higher. Japan also gained, while Southeast Asia was mixed. India pared early losses. US futures higher, Europe opened stronger. Dollar DXY index stayed below 103, AUD, yen and yuan stronger. US Treasury yields higher at the short end, lower at the long; JGB yields higher. Crude higher again following overnight spike, precious metals mixed, industrial metals higher.

    • Asia markets struggled for a firm direction for most of the day although most moved higher into their respective closes. The more tech-dominated exchanges of Taiwan, South Korea and Australia outperformed those of Southeast Asia, the Hang Seng clung on to its 17K support line but finished the month with a loss, the only major Asia country benchmark to fall during November. Lower global bond yields continue to be the dominant driver with a strong yield curve-steepening overnight amid higher prices across tenors, albeit with a modest reverse in some lines during Asia trading.

    • Today's data showed China official manufacturing PMI shrank at a quicker pace in November than expected, with production growth softening, and new orders and export orders both falling. Services PMI growth momentum softened and turned negative for the first time in 11-months. BOK left its base rate unchanged but upgraded inflation forecasts. South Korea industrial activity and retail sales fell m/m. Japan industrial production beat forecasts but retail sales contracted for first time in four months. New Zealand business confidence highest since Mar-2015. Thailand industrial output slowed again but at a decelerated pace.

    • Denso Corp (6902.JP) is to reduce its cross holdings including in Toyota Motor (7203.TT) and Toyota Industries (6201.JP) via share sales, will begin share buyback scheme. Honda Motor (7267.JP) says it intends to invest $3B into new electric motorbike models. Seven & I (3382.JP) is to buy 7-Eleven's Australian arm for A$1.71B. Geely Auto (175.HK) has delayed the IPO of its Zeekr unit citing unfavorable market conditions. Origin Energy (ORG.AU) rejected Brookfield's revised takeover proposal from Brookfield asset management. Tata Technologies (544028.IN) stock surged more than 160% on its listing debut in Mumbai.

  • Digest:

    • China PMIs broadly softer than expected:

      • Official manufacturing PMI was 49.4 in November, compared to consensus 49.7. Follows 49.5 in the previous month, marking the second straight month in contraction. Production growth softened amid further weakening in new orders and exports. Inflation metrics generally positive amid easing in input price increases and output price declines. Finished goods inventories fell for the ninth month. Marginally mixed changes in PMIs by industry size still left large firms as the only expanding segment. Nonmanufacturing PMI also disappointed at 50.2 vs consensus 50.9 and prior month's 50.6. Growth momentum softest this year. Bounce in construction was overshadowed by downturn in services for the first time since December last year. NBS attributed weakening to relatively high base in October due to the National Day holiday. Input prices continued to fall marginally alongside shaper declines in output prices. Broadly based softening took Composite PMI down to 50.4 from 50.7, also a YTD low. NBS described latest developments as a slight slowdown while noting the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated.

    • BOK stays on hold as expected, raises 2024 inflation forecast:

      • BOK kept repo rates steady at 3.5%, in line with unanimous expectations. Marks the seventh straight meeting on hold, following a similar run of rate hikes spanning much of 2022. Policy statement updated BOK economic forecasts, now looking for GDP growth at 1.4% in 2023 (unchanged) and 2.1% in 2024 (vs prior 2.2%). Inflation seen at 3.6% in 2023 (from 3.5%) and 2.6% in 2024 (from 2.4%). Reiterated guidance that policy stance will remain restrictive for a sufficiently long period until the Board is confident that inflation will converge to the target level. Acknowledged inflation running higher than expected though still projected to continue its underlying slowdown. Bloomberg, citing Governor Rhee's press conference, noted vote count was unanimous while number of board members seeing possible need for rate hikes fell to four from six last month. On the other hand, the one member who saw the possibility of a rate cut last month retracted from that stance. Rhee also said he expects inflation to slow in the near term before converging on 2% toward the end of next year or early 2025.

    • Treasury melt up sparks 'everything rally' in November:

      • Markets closing out November with historic monthly gains, driven in large part by a bond rebound as dovish remarks from high profile Fed officials (including Powell and Waller) lead markets to price in ~ 100 bp of rate cuts in 2024 (Bloomberg). Treasuries tracking for strongest month since 1980s while global bonds heading for best month since Dec-2008 (Bloomberg). Traction behind soft landing and disinflation narratives fueled gains in risk assets with MSCI World Index up ~9% so far in November, and Asia ex-Japan and emerging market stocks up 7% each. Speculative corners have also seen outsized gains with Bloomberg Crypto Index up 18% and junk bonds having best month since Jul-2022 amid record ETF inflows. Dollar index on track for biggest monthly fall in a year, boosting attractiveness of EM assets with high yielding Asian bond funds seeing large inflows (Bloomberg). Asian investment-grade debt also on track for best month since Nov-2022 (Bloomberg).

    • BOJ's Nakamura sees signs of sustainable wage growth, inflation but easing needs to continue:

      • In a speech, BOJ board member Nakamura acknowledged core inflation remains above the 2% target, though the Bank needs to stick with persistent easing for the time being. Noted optimism in the underlying economic outlook as elevated household savings accumulated during the pandemic is expected to fuel pent-up domestic demand, offsetting drags from an overseas slowdown. Observed that combination of elevated import prices and labor shortages have triggered developments in Japan inflation, wages and rates. Yet, with real wages falling for 18 straight months, indicators such as GDP deflator and ULC have not demonstrated the same sort of lift as in the US and Europe. Given ongoing strong lagged effects from imported cost-push factor, BOJ's targeted 2% on the back of wage growth has not been reached. With Japan facing a crucial stage in terms of cultivating a virtuous wage/price cycle, policy conduct needs to be careful and hence policy adjustments will take a little more time.

    • Japan industrial production slightly beats, retail sales unexpectedly fall:

      • Industrial production rose 1.0% m/m in October, compared to consensus 0.8% and follows 0.5% in the previous month. Strength driven by electronic parts & devices, autos and electrical machinery. Drags came from metals processing, oil & coal, pulp & paper. Shipments edged higher, leading to first rise in inventories in three months. Core capital goods shipments rebounded. METI survey projections point to a 0.3% decline in November and 3.2% increase in December. Most sectors guiding output lower in November though December optimism virtually unanimous. Implies Q4 rebound at face value though adjusted November projection at -1.9% points to a softer positive trajectory. Retail sales fell 1.6% m/m, contrasting with expectations of a 0.4% rise. Follows revised 0.4% in prior month and marks the first decline in four months. Most segments were lower, led by fuel, machinery & equipment and autos. Outweighed growth in apparel and food & beverages. Broader macro attention remains on wage growth, particularly after soft Q3 GDP private consumption was pinned on a fall in employee compensation.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +2.1% 402340.KS (SK Square Co.): reportedly chooses not to exercise call option to purchase more shares in 11Street

      • +1.7% 6674.JP (GS Yuasa): 15.2M shares public offering priced at ¥2,072/share

      • +1.3% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): seeking stakes in coking coal and iron ore mines

      • +0.7% 6902.JP (DENSO Corp): to reduce cross-holdings via share sales; to sell shares in Toyota Motor, Toyota Industries and Aisin; to launch ¥200B buyback

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.9% 9626.HK (Bilibili): reports Q3 adjusted EPADS (CNY2.12) vs FactSet (CNY1.90), revenue CNY5.81B vs FactSet CNY5.81B; guides FY revenue at low end of CNY22.5-23.5B range vs FactSet CNY22.76B

      • -2.7% 175.HK (Geely Automobile Holdings): Zeekr Intelligent Technology reportedly delays US IPO amid unfavorable market conditions

      • -0.1% 3382.JP (Seven & i): Seven & i reportedly to acquire 7-Eleven's Australian arm for A$1.71B (¥166.8B)

      • -0.0% 8.HK (PCCW Ltd): Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reportedly exploring bid for stake in PCCW's fiber business

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China November

        • Official manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs consensus 49.7 and 49.5 in prior month

          • Non-manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs consensus 50.9 and 50.6 in prior month

          • Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.7 in prior month

      • Japan October

        • Industrial production +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.8% and +0.5% in prior month

          • METI survey projections (0.3%) in November, +3.2% in December

        • Retail sales (1.6%) m/m vs consensus +0.4% and revised +0.4% in prior month

          • Retail sales +4.2% y/y vs consensus +6.0% and revised +6.2% in prior month

      • Australia

        • Q3 private capital expenditure +0.6% q/q vs consensus +2.1% and +2.8% in Q2

          • Equipment, plant and machinery capex +0.5% vs +1.9% q/q in Q2

        • October private sector credit +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and +0.5% September

        • October building approvals +7.5% vs consensus +1.4% and revised (4.0%) in September

      • New Zealand November

        • ANZ Business Confidence +30.8 vs October +23.4

      • South Korea October

        • Industrial production (3.5%) m/m vs FactSet consensus +1.0% and revised +1.7% in prior month

          • Industrial production +1.1% y/y vs FactSet consensus +6.4% and revised +2.9% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 165.67 or +0.50% to 33486.89

      • Hang Seng: 49.44 or +0.29% to 17042.88

      • Shanghai Composite: 7.99 or +0.26% to 3029.67

      • Shenzhen Composite: (6.64) or (0.35%) to 1883.21

      • ASX200: 52.00 or +0.74% to 7087.30

      • KOSPI: 15.48 or +0.61% to 2535.29

      • SENSEX: (130.33) or (0.19%) to 66771.58

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.18) or (0.12%) to 147.0650

      • $-KRW: +3.13 or +0.24% to 1293.9800

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.27% to 0.6634

      • $-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 83.3673

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 7.1279

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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