Nov 30 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open in positive territory amid Asian equities trading mixed in Thursday trade. US futures higher. Dollar index nestling below 103, AUD, yen and yuan stronger. US Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also higher. Crude higher again following overnight spike, Precious metals off recent highs, industrial metals higher.
On today's agenda, COP28 gets underway, EU's von der Leyen participates Fri/Sat. Reportedly, OPEC+ holding delayed policy meeting. UK parliament committee topics include HS2 progress update (14:00GMT). EU's von der Leyen speech at the Clean Transition Dialogue with energy-intensive industries whilst EU's General Affairs Council is expected to approve conclusions on the future of cohesion policy. SMMT publishes UK Oct car production and Automotive summit organised by IHK takes place.
In central banks, Riksbank's Bunge speech at 9:00CET at seminar organized by Swedbank. ECB's Lagarde speech 14:30CET, McCaul panellist at 15:15, Enria conversation at 14:45, af Jochnick panellist 16:45 at ECB's bank supervision conf (through Fri). BOE's Greene speech at 16:00GMT at Leeds Univ. Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 18:00CET at event hosted by deutscher Pfandbriefbanken and Balz speech at 18:30CET at EFF European Finance Forum.
Macro updates in the calendar today: Germany Nov unemployment change, Oct retail sales, France Nov preliminary CPI, Oct PPI, Switzerland Nov leading indicators - KOF, Oct retail sales, Italy Nov preliminary CPI, Oct unemployment rate, Netherlands Nov preliminary CPI, Denmark Q3 final GDP, Oct unemployment rate, Finland Q3 final GDP, Austria Q3 final GDP, Nov preliminary CPI, Portugal Q3 final GDP, Nov preliminary CPI, Eurozone Nov preliminary CPI, Oct unemployment rate, Greece Oct unemployment rate, PPI, Sep retail sales, Ireland Nov unemployment rate.
In corporate news, Quadient (QDT.FP) reported yesterday after the close Q3 earnings including revenue €263M, (3%) y/y. Still in France, Eurazeo (RF.FP) updated investors this morning and said it expects shareholders' return of €2.3B over 2024-2027; presents financial outlook 2024-2027 ahead of its CMD. Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP) reports H1 adj net income €113.0M vs consensus €130.1M; reiterates both its financial and extra-financial targets for 2029-30.
In the DACH region, Siltronic (WAF.GR) hosting Capital Markets Day today; group sales expected to exceed €2.2B by 2028 and EBITDA margin to reach high 30's percentage area. ABB (ABBN.SW) raises long-term comparable revenue growth target to 5-7% vs prior 3-5% ahead of its CMD. Out of the Nordics, Elekta (EKTA.B.SS) reports Q2 EPS SEK0.94 ex-items vs consensus SEK0.84 and provides outlook.
Politics/Macro/World News
British companies most confident since February 2022: Lloyds - Reuters
Israel and Hamas Extend Their War Truce for Another Day - Bloomberg
Andrew Bailey: I'm no pessimist but UK outlook is worst I've seen - Times
Oil advances for third day ahead of high-stakes OPEC+ Meeting - Bloomberg
Group yet to resolve dispute over output for African members
OPEC and allies meet later Thursday to discuss 2024 production
ONS 'experimental' data lowers UK unemployment rate to 3.5% - FT
Netherlands Nov preliminary CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and prior (0.4%)
Finland Q3 GDP (1.2%) y/y vs preliminary (1.0%); (0.9%) q/q vs preliminary (0.9%)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- ABB raises long-term comparable revenue growth target to 5-7% vs prior 3-5%
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- hosting Capital Markets Day today; group sales expected to exceed €2.2B by 2028 and EBITDA margin to reach high 30's percentage area
IIA.AV (Immofinanz) -- reports 9M FFO before tax €214.4M vs year-ago €103.2M
CAI.AV (CA Immobilien Anlagen) -- reports 9M FFO I €82.7M vs year-ago €102.5M
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- Formycon, Fresenius Kabi announced that FDA has accepted Biologics License Application for FYB202
OFN.SW (Orell Füssli) -- guides FY23 EBIT margin 'at or slightly above' FY22 vs prior guidance of 'slightly below' FY22
Nordics
OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu) -- negotiates long-term extension to partnership with AM/NS until 2051 for procurement of hot rolling services in business area Americas
HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki) -- to implement three-year cost efficiency program worth ~ €100M in savings
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK0.94 ex-items vs consensus SEK0.84
Southern Europe
ACX.SM (Acerinox) -- releases presentation material in connection with its CMD
IBS.PL (Ibersol SGPS) -- reports 9M net income from cont. ops. €9.6M, +32% vs year-ago €7.3M
Benelux
ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- raises overall target for run-rate cost synergies from the transaction with Aegon Nederland to €215M - Investor Update
France
QDT.FP (Quadient) -- reports Q3 revenue €263M, (3%) vs year-ago €270M
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- expects shareholders' return of €2.3B over 2024-2027; presents financial outlook 2024-2027 -- CMD
RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau) -- reports H1 adj net income €113.0M vs consensus €130.1M; reiterates both its financial and extra-financial targets for 2029-30
M&A
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- remains open to alternatives for growth including M&A - Bloomberg
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- BMW and Mercedes-Benz to establish a joint high-power charging network in China
MAREL.IR (Marel) -- issues response to shareholder letter from Teleios Capital Partners
BALN.SW (Baloise) -- in talks to sell around €1B euros of life insurance policies in Belgium - Reuters
BBED.NA (Beter Bed Holding) -- Torqx declares offer for Beter Bed Holding unconditional; 95.14% of shares now tendered or committed
IPEL.LN (Impellam Group) -- The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers has consented HeadFirst Global and Impellam.to a further extension to the Deadline to 5-Dec-23
Healthcare
MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals) -- receives guidance from FDA for DONESTA NDA marketing authorization filing in US
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- announces preliminary results for first exercise period for warrants issued in connection with rights issue
Other
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- ASML Supervisory board intends to appoint current CBO Christophe Fouquet as President and CEO
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- North America today named two executives related to the Jeep brand as the region prepares for its electric offensive in 2024
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- completes €1.0B buyback program
CON.GR (Continental) -- chairman Wolfgang Reitzle facing internal division over plans to spin off automotive division - Handelsblatt
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- secures 1.6 GW electricity business license for offshore wind project off the coast of Incheon, Korea
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- announces Jens Schulte to succeed Klaus Keysberg as CFO
ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- closes unit-linked life insurance file; settlement involves ~ €250M
TRE.SM (Tecnicas Reunidas) -- The supreme court dismisses cassation appeal against Tecnicas Reunidas
Key rating changes
Upgrades
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- Leonardo reinstated overweight at JPMorgan; prior rating was neutral
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
WISE.LN (Wise) -- upgraded to outperform from underperform at Autonomous Research
STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics) - to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
VACN.SW (VAT Group) --to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail) -- upgraded to buy from hold at Peel Hunt
Downgrades
HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz) -- to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
888.LN (888 Holdings) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
SDF.GR (K+S) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
VMUK.LN (Virgin Money UK) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
THULE.SS (Thule Group) -- to sell from hold at Nordea
Initiations
CATE.SS (Catena) -- buy at SEB
SN.LN (Smith & Nephew) - buy at Jefferies
AWE.LN (Alphawave IP Group) -- buy at Deutsche Bank
Data
Nikkei +0.50% to 33486.89
Hang Seng +0.25% to 17035.72
Shanghai Composite +0.21% to 3028.11
S&P futures +7.3 vs prior close of 4559.3
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0983
$-¥ (0.32) or (0.22%) to 146.92
€-¥ (0.14) or (0.09%) to 161.36
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