Nov 30 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets mostly closed higher. After a short period in narrow range-bound trade either side of unchanged, pan-European indices moved higher, touching then session highs prior to Wall Street's open, then settling in a trading range just below the best levels of the day, before moving higher again before the close
Denmark, Ireland both +0.9% and Norway +0.8% led outperformers, with Sweden (0.1%), Spain +0.1% and Finland +0.2% leading underperformers. Mid- and small cap indices were under pressure in Germany, Italy, Netherlands and UK
OPEC+ headlines coming out of the meeting swayed sentiment towards oil, and the organization was initially reported as having agreed preliminary oil cut deal of over 1M bpd. Further headlines, citing delegates, indicated an output cut of 2M bpd in Q1 of 2024, with individual members set to announce their new quotas. Also, Brazil set to join OPEC+ in 2024
COP28 gets underway with EU calling for accelerated emissions reductions and clean energy transition. EU's von der Leyen spoke at the Clean Transition Dialogue with energy intensive industries
ECB's bank supervision conf (through Fri) saw ECB's Lagarde speech, McCaul panellist, Enria conversation and af Jochnick panellist. Riksbank's Bunge spoke during the morning at seminar organized by Swedbank. BOE's Greene spoke at Leeds Univ. In her first speech as an MPC member, Greene sets out her approach to interest rate decisions. Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 18:00CET at event hosted by deutscher Pfandbriefbanken and Balz speech at 18:30CET at EFF European Finance Forum.
BOE published Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey of CFOs from small, medium and large UK businesses. The one-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 4.4% in Nov, down from 4.6% in Oct
A raft of macro indicators included Germany Nov unemployment change, Switzerland Nov KOF leading indicators, France Oct consumer spending, as well as Q3 final GDPs, Nov preliminary CPIs and Oct unemployment rates from across the region. UK Oct car production +31.6% y/y
Earnings/updates included Ashtead Technology Holdings (AT.LN), Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), Martens (DOCS.LN), Mitchells & Butlers (MAB.LN), Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP), SAS (SAS.SS) and Vienna Insurance Group (VIG.AV). Several companies held CMD/events including ABB Limited (ABBN.SW), Beijer Ref (BEIJ.B.SS), Eurazeo (RF.FP) and Revenio Group (REG1V.FH)
M&A news flow included Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR) decides not to pursue plans for the sale of a minority stake in Lufthansa Technik, launches growth program for the business unit. BW LPG (BWLPG.NO) to acquire 8.5% stake in Confidence Petroleum (526829.IN) and invest in LPG onshore import terminal. BMW (BMW.GR) and Mercedes-Benz (MBG.GR) to establish a joint high-power charging network in China. Brookfield's acquisition of Network International Holdings (NETW.LN) now expected to complete in Q1 of 2024. Marel (MAREL.IR) issues response to shareholder letter from Teleios Capital Partners. Reportedly, Obrascon Huarte Lain (OHLA.SM) looking to sell Centro Canalejas for €800M.
The Dutch government announced its intention to reduce its stake in ABN Amro (ABN.NA) via a pre-arranged trading plan. The shares ended down (1.7%), above their worst level of the day
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +1.39%, Insurance +1.11%, Oil & Gas +1.05%, Food & Beverage +0.97%, Health Care +0.89%, Construct & Mtls +0.66%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.62%
Underperformers:
Real Estate (0.49%), Travel & Leisure (0.47%), Retail (0.37%), Autos & Parts (0.18%), Technology (0.14%), Basic Resources (0.12%), Telecom +0.18%, Chemicals +0.33%, Media +0.34%, Utilities +0.35%, Banks +0.36%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.46%
Macro/ Peripheral markets:
Finland:
Government proposal on Finland's accession to NATO SOFA and Paris Protocol submitted to Parliament - release
Ireland:
National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) plans to issue €6B to €10B of bonds over the course of 2024 - release
Italy:
Bank of Italy's Panetta spoke at event organised by the ICCREA Group - release
Netherlands:
Government formation talks stops Wilders attending a summit of right-wing parties in Italy - De Telegraaf
UK:
Chancellor has welcomed Microsoft's £2.5B investment over the next 3 years to expand its next generation AI datacentre infrastructure - release
Alba Party, led by former Scottish first minister Alex Salmon, unveils plans to lodge a referendum Bill at Holyrood - The Scotsman
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+24.5% AT.LN (Ashtead Technology Holdings)
Now expects FY23 to be comfortably ahead of its previous expectations
acquires ACE Winches for total cash consideration of £53.5M
+12.1% ASRNL.NA (ASR Nederland) -- closes unit-linked life insurance file; settlement involves ~ €250M
+10.1% OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu)
Negotiates long-term extension to partnership with AM/NS until 2051 for procurement of hot rolling services in business area America
To buy back up to 11M shares between 1-Dec-23 to 21-Mar-24
+9.9% NN.NA (NN Group) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; to outperform from neutral at Oddo
+9.7% RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- expects shareholders' return of €2.3B over 2024-27; presents financial outlook 2024-27 - CMD
+6.3% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group) -- H1 EPS ($0.11) vs year-ago $0.03
+6.0% OHLA.SM (Obrascon Huarte Lain) -- looking to sell Centro Canalejas for €800M - El Confidencial, citing sources
+4.3% SAAS.LN (Microlise Group Holdings) -- Microlise Group to acquire Enterprise Software Systems for initial £7.65M due on completion
+3.7% NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
+3.5% VIG.AV (Vienna Insurance Group) -- 9M revenue €10.62B, +11.4% y/y; expects FY23 PBT to be at upper end of forecast range
+3.2% BALN.SW (Baloise) -- in talks to sell ~€1B of life insurance policies in Belgium - Reuters
+3.0% BPT.LN (Bridgepoint Group) -- to buy from hold at Peel Hunt
+2.0% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+1.8% ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- raises long-term comparable revenue growth target to 5-7% vs prior 3-5% - CMD
On earnings/updates: HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki), BEIJ.B.SS (Beijer Ref), CAI.AV (CA Immobilien Anlagen), LOU.GR (DEAG Deutsche Entertainment), IBS.PL (Ibersol) and reversing initial falls RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau), OFN.SW (Orell Füssli), NCC.LN (NCC Group)
Notable Decliners
-44.9% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma) -- Q3 EPS (SEK2.78) vs FactSet (SEK3.06) [1 est]
-23.3% ATG.LN (Auction Technology Group) -- FY Adj. EPS 32.6p vs FactSet 30.0p [6 est, 28.7-31.7p]; guides FY24 organic revenue growth between +5-8%
-20.5% DOCS.LN ( Martens) -- H1 EPS 1.9p vs year-ago 4.5p; expects FY24 EBITDA to be moderately below the bottom end of the range of consensus expectations, withdraws FY25 guidance
-11.8% FUTR.LN (Future) -- to sell from hold at Canaccord Genuity
-11.6% WYN.LN (Wynnstay Group) -- FY results expected to be below market expectations
-8.4% CTO.LN (TClarke) -- revenue on track to achieve £500M target in FY23
-8.1% MAB.LN (Mitchells & Butlers) -- FY adj EPS 15.6p vs FactSet 13.9p [11 est, 12.2-15.3p]; to start to rebuild margins back towards pre-pandemic levels
-7.5% REG1V.FH (Revenio Group) -- reaffirms FY guidance, says next 6 months look challenging; outlines updated strategy for 2024-26 - CMD
-7.5% EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- Q2 EPS SEK0.94 ex-items vs consensus SEK0.84, expects improvement in revenue growth and margin expansion to continue into Q3, although at a slower pace and with continued inflationary pressure; assumed hold at Jefferies
-7.4% SAS.SS (SAS) -- FY net income (SEK5.70B) vs FactSet (SEK5.16B) [1 est]
-7.2% 888.LN (888 Holdings) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
-5.9% WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- sales expected to exceed €2.2B by 2028 and EBITDA margin to reach high 30's percentage area - CMD
-5.8% OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
-5.7% DBAN.GR (Deutsche Beteiligungs) -- confirms prelim FY net income of ~ €106M vs FactSet €108.8M [4 est, €98.4-117.4M]
-5.7% SANION.SS (Saniona) -- Q3 EPS (SEK0.38) vs year-ago SEK0.28
-5.3% THULE.SS (Thule Group) -- to sell from hold at Nordea
-4.8% MEGP.LN (ME Group International) -- Expects FY revenue to be marginally below the lower end of the previous guidance range, EBITDA inline with guidance
-4.4% QDT.FP (Quadient) -- Q3 revenue €263M, (3%) vs year-ago €270M, lowers FY sales growth guidance, reaffirms EBIT guidance
-4.0% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz) -- to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs
-3.1% TXGN.SW (TX Group) -- provides 2026 adjusted EBIT margin targets at strategy day; shares reverse initial gains
-3.0% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group) -- H1 underlying EPS (21.8p) vs year-ago (5.3p)
-1.6% RECSI.NO (REC Silicon) -- provides update on agreement for sale of Yulin equity interest; process now entering phase for governmental review; shares reversed early gains
On earnings/updates: CFISH.SS (Crunchfish), TFG.NA (Tetragon Financial Group), ACX.SM (Acerinox), KHG.FH (KH Group), ALL.LN (Atlantic Lithium) and reversing initial gains IIA.AV (Immofinanz),
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP), Mind Gym (MIND.LN), Havila Kystruten (HKY.NO)
CMD/events: BASF (BAS.GR) R&D, Swiss Re (SREN.SW), Alligator Bioscience (ATORX.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Germany
Nov unemployment change +22K vs consensus +22K, prior +30K
Oct retail sales (0.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.0%), prior (4.3%)
France
Nov preliminary CPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.7%, prior +4.0%
Q3 GDP +0.6% y/y vs preliminary +0.7%
Oct PPI (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%), prior revised (1.5%) from (1.7%)
Oct consumer spending (0.9%) m/m vs consensus (0.2%), prior revised 0.0% from +0.2%
Italy Oct unemployment rate 7.8% vs consensus 7.5%, prior revised 7.6% from 7.4%
Eurozone
Nov preliminary CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.7%, prior +2.9%; (0.3%) m/m vs consensus (0.2%), prior +0.1%
Oct unemployment rate 6.5% vs consensus 6.5%, prior 6.5%
Switzerland
Oct retail sales (0.1%) y/y vs consensus +0.2%, prior revised (1.2%) from (0.6%)
Nov KOF leading indicators 96.7 vs consensus 96.6, prior revised 95.1 from 95.8
Netherlands Nov preliminary CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +2.4%, prior (0.4%)
Austria Nov preliminary CPI +5.4% y/y vs consensus +5.3%, prior +5.4%
Denmark
Oct unemployment rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.5%, prior 2.5%
Q3 GDP (0.1%) q/q vs preliminary (0.3%)
Finland Q3 GDP (1.2%) y/y vs preliminary (1.0%)
Greece
Oct unemployment rate 9.6% vs consensus 10.0%, prior revised 10.3% from 10.0%
Sep retail sales (3.3%) y/y vs consensus (3.0%), prior revised (3.3%) from (3.6%)
Oct PPI (13.5%) vs consensus (3.0%) and prior (4.3%)
Belgium Q3 GDP +1.4% y/y vs preliminary +1.5%
Portugal
Q3 GDP +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +1.9%
Nov preliminary CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.8%, prior +2.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 24): ($2.54) or (3.26%) to $75.32
€-$ (0.0063) or (0.57%) to 1.0908
£-$ (0.0050) or (0.39%) to 1.2643
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8629
S&P 500 (0.12%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +0.03%
DAX: +16.46%
CAC: +12.93%
MIB: +25.44%
Stoxx 600: +8.64%
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