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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.04% to 7531.59, DAX +1.06% to 16386.89, CAC40 +0.49% to 7346.83, STOXX 600 +0.98% to 466.14

Dec 01 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices have ended in positive territory. In central banks news, Goldman Sachs amongst brokers is now anticipating a ECB rate cut in Q2 instead of Q3. Yet, Bundesbank chief Nagel, a known hawk, continued to push back against rate cut bets saying risks skewed towards more negative outcomes. Berenberg also sees scope for inflation resurgence, not least due to base effect from German government intervention last year, alongside end of various government support measures to help Europeans through the crisis years. However, broker added that inflation rates should continue to trend down after the winter, albeit much less quickly than in 2023. BNY said ECB has scope to diverge from peers and shift towards easing stance sooner. Broker cited high euro, EZ credit impulse remaining deeply negative, M3 now materially negative, sharp decline in annualised loan growth to non-financial corporates in Germany and France. Broker sees no demand impact from ECB policy on household consumption, but too much impact on key sectors for the economy. Also, BoE's newest policymaker Greene says rates may be less restrictive than thought: The BoE's newest MPC member Greene said Thursday UK rates may be less restrictive than thought (Bloomberg). Highlighted increase in natural rate of unemployment due to matching inefficiencies in UK market. Also noted neutral interest rate, or R* may also be higher, which she said is reflected in market expectations for long-term rates and risk premia investors demanding to hold longer maturity bonds. In terms of immediate policy considerations, Greene said doing too much rather than too little was preferable with inflation still high.

    • Macro-calendar was dominated by manufacturing PMIs. Eurozone industrial activity remains weak, but updates last month showed stabilization at very weakness levels.

    • In reporting news, Leonteq (LEON.SW) revised its FY outlook and provided its 11M business update whilst - still in Swizterland - Swiss Re (SREN.SW) announced new IFRS targets including net income of >$3.6B for 2024 and multi-year ROE of more than 14% in connection with its Investors' Day; also, Jenoptik (JEN>GR) is hosting its CMD; in the Netherlands, Signify (LIGHT.NA) will reduce its structural cost, generating expected annualized savings in excess of €200M whilst - in the Nordics - Viaplay Group (VPLAY.A.SS) posted Q3 earnings and announced a recapitalisation programme including SEK4B new equity raise and SEK14.6B debt renegotiation package; shares down (75%) at the open. In notable M&A news, BP (BP.LN) agreed to to take full ownership of Lightsource at base equity value of £254M for the remaining 50.03% interest; in Spain, local press reported that Cellnex (CLNX.SM) hired Santander to sell its subsidiary in Ireland for €1.1B

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (pls see StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Dec 4- attached below), EU-China summit, Eurogroup meeting, Germany Oct industrial production, Switzerland Nov CPI, Spain Nov unemployment change, Nov services PMIs from across the region as well as earnings/updates out from Ashtead (AHT.LN), Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN), DS Smith (SMDS.LN) and Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS) will be the main updates. Other companies are also due to report including , SSP Group (SSPG.LN), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.LN), Victrex (VCT.LN), AJ Bell (AJB.LN), Paragon Banking (PAG.LN) and Redde Northgate (REDD.LN), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), Systemair (SYSR.SS), Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS) Wavestone (WAVE.FP) and Oeneo (SBT.FP). Of note, monthly airline passenger stats will be sprinkled through the week whilst Germany and UK Nov new car registrations are also due for release

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Basic Resources +4.15%, Travel & Leisure +2.31%, Real Estate+2.25%, Retail +2.04%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.49%, Financial Svcs +1.21%, Technology +1.06%, Construct & Mtls +1.00%

      • Underperformers: Food & Beverage +0.33%, Autos & Parts +0.47%, Insurance +0.55%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.56%, Chemicals +0.57%, Utilities +0.67%, Oil & Gas +0.71%, Telecom +0.78%, Health Care +0.82%, Banks +0.91%, Media +0.97%

    • Macro:

      • Gaza truce crumbles as Israel and Hamas resume war (Politico)

      • German finance minister defends 2023 debt brake suspension forced by court ruling (Reuters)

      • Germany to pay into climate funds despite budget crisis (FT)

      • France's Macron calls on G7 nations to 'put an end to coal' by 2030 at COP28 summit (F24)

      • EU nuclear agency sees some Russia imports up again in 2023 from before Ukraine war (Reuters)

      • Istat raises Italian GDP estimate in Q3 to 0.1% (Ansa)

      • From France to Ireland and beyond, Europe confronts an increasingly transnational far-right threat (EN)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +25.6% HUNT.NO (Hunter Group NOK2.25, +0.46) -- charters in scrubber-fitted Eco VLCC for 3 years and announces fully covered private placement

        • +6.5% TGYM.IM (Technogym €8.51, +0.52) -- NEOM acquires ~8.8M compny shares at €9.2/share via reverse accelerated bookbuild

        • +5.5% IPCO.SS (International Petroleum Corp SEK117.95, +6.10) -- announces TSX Approval for renewal of normal course issuer bid

        • +5.5% JEN.GR (Jenoptik €26.12, +1.36) -- CMD

        • +5.4% WLN.FP (Worldline €15.01, +0.77) -- Credit Agricole is exploring building a stake in Worldline -- Bloomberg

        • +4.8% VAC.FP (Pierre & Vacances €1.44, +0.07) -- FY earnings

        • +4.7% LIGHT.NA (Signify €27.91, +1.25) -- to reduce structural cost, generating expected annualized savings in excess of €200M

        • +3.7% DBAN.GR (Deutsche Beteiligungs €26.75, +0.95) -- provides update on partnership with ELF Capital Advisory

        • +3.3% HOT.GR (Hochtief €102.40, +3.25) -- contract

        • +3.1% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €8.23, +0.25) -- EU sets a provisional deadline of 15-Jan to rule on company's acquisition of 41% in ITA Airways

        • +2.7% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK64.46, +1.68) -- completes $1. 11B transaction for the sale of 30% interest in the Brazilian alumina refinery Hydro Alunorte and Hydro's 5% interest in the bauxite producer Mineracão

        • +1.9% BAR.LN (Brand Architekts Group £0.27, +0.01) -- joint venture settlement: Mr Haircare Limited

        • +1.6% BILL.SS (Billerud SEK104.00, +1.60) -- appoints acting CEO as new CEO

        • +1.5% JHD.LN (James Halstead £2.01, +0.03) -- chairman's statement to AGM:

        • +1.0% CONSTI.FH (Consti €10.50, +0.10) -- acquires Sähkö-Huhta Oy that operates in Greater Helsinki

      • Notable Decliners

        • -16.1% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF32.75, -6.30) -- revises its FY outlook and provides an 11M business update

        • -11.9% VPLAY.A.SS (Viaplay Group SEK31.00, -4.20) -- Q3 earnings; proposes recapitalisation programme including SEK4B new equity raise, SEK14.6B debt renegotiation package

        • -9.5% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK32.32, -3.40) -- postpones the acquisition of 28% working interest in PL037 (Statfjord Area) from Equinor Energy

        • -9.5% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.59, -0.06) -- confirms it has received preliminary indicative offers from several purchasers for different hypermarket and supermarket perimeters

        • -7.3% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £1.74, -0.14) -- FY trading update

        • -5.6% WAF.GR (Siltronic €82.30, -4.85) -- CMD

        • -5.5% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £1.40, -0.08) -- operational and trading update

        • -4.6% BC8.GR (Bechtle €43.37, -2.11) -- launches offering of up to €300M convertible bonds

        • -3.4% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical SEK0.77, -0.03) -- to liquidate subsidiary Isofol Medical (Incentive) AB

        • -2.6% SOI.FP (SOITEC €162.05, -4.40) -- holder NSIG Sunrise sells 432k shares at €163.1/share

        • -1.5% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £16.85, -0.25) -- completes the acquisition of Cobase

        • -0.3% CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom €34.93, -0.11) -- hires Santander to sell its subsidiary in Ireland for €1.1B -- Expansion

    • EU companies reporting on Minday:

      • Earnings: Victrex (VCT.LN), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Integrum (INTEG.B.SS)

      • Trading Update: Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS)

      • CMD/events: Continental (CON.GR), BETMGM business update (ENT.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Nov manufacturing PMI

        • Ireland 50.0 vs consensus 47.5, prior 48.2

        • Netherlands 44.9 vs consensus 45.1, prior 43.8

        • Russia 53.8 vs consensus 52.8, prior 53.8

        • Sweden 49.0 vs consensus 47.0, prior revised 46.2 from 45.7

        • Spain 46.3 vs consensus 45.5, prior 45.1

        • Switzerland 42.1 vs consensus 42.0, prior 40.6

        • Italy 44.4 vs consensus 45.3, prior 44.9

        • France 42.9 vs preliminary 42.6

        • Germany 42.6 vs preliminary 42.3

        • Eurozone 44.2 vs preliminary 43.8

        • Greece 50.9 vs consensus 51.0, prior 50.8

        • UK 47.2 vs preliminary 46.7

        • Norway 49.9 vs consensus 48.6, prior 47.9

      • UK Nov house price index (2.0%) y/y vs consensus (2.3%), prior (3.3%); +0.2% m/m vs consensus (0.4%), prior +0.9% - Nationwide

      • Switzerland Q3 GDP +0.3% y/y vs consensus +0.5%, prior revised +0.3% from +0.5%; +0.3% q/q vs consensus +0.1%, prior revised (0.1%) from 0.0%

      • Austria Q3 GDP (1.8%) y/y vs preliminary (1.2%); (0.5%) q/q vs preliminary (0.6%)

      • Italy Q3 GDP +0.1% y/y vs preliminary 0.0%; +0.1% q/q vs preliminary 0.0%Ireland Q3 GDP due at 6ET: preliminary (4.7%) y/y, (1.8%) q/q

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$0.01 or +0.01% to $75.97

      • €-$ (0.0022) or (0.20%) to 1.0868

      • £-$ +0.0048 or +0.38% to 1.2672

      • €-£ (0.0050) to 0.8577

      • S&P 500 +0.16%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +1.07%

        • DAX: +17.69%

        • CAC: +13.49%

        • MIB: +26.20%

        • Stoxx 600: +9.71%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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