Dec 04 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed after last week's gains, with the UK FTSE 100 indicated lower amid lower oil prices. Gold hits fresh record highs; currently above $2,100/oz having pared some earlier gains. Bitcoin tops $42,000.
Markets last week continued to key off the persistent rally in the rates market, which gained traction after Eurozone inflation came in slower than expected, with core and services prices also easing
Asian equities mixed Monday. Hang Seng leading China markets lower amid tech weakness. Evergrande leading gains among developers after winning court reprieve.
European macro data releases out Monday include Germany Oct trade balance, Switzerland Nov CPI, Spain Nov unemployment change, Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence
In corporate highlights, Roche (ROG.SW) to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7B up front. Worldline (WLN.FP) Is reportedly weighing options including asset sales amid recent share price decline; Credit Agricole reportedly may acquire a stake in the company. 888 Holdings (888.LN) rejected 156p/share indicative approach from Playtech, according to the Sunday Times
In central banks, ECB's Elderson panellist at 6:45CET at organised by the COP28 Presidency, speech at 12:10 at event organised by the Abu Dhabi Global Market, fireside chat at 14:35 at event Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) (livestream) and panellist at 15:30CET at event organised by the COP28 Presidency. Bundesbank's Mauderer speech at 5:30CET at UNFCCC Leader Level Nature Finance event at COP28. Riksbank publishes the minutes from the last monetary policy meeting at 9:30CET whilst Riksbank's Breman speech at 11:00CET at a seminar organised by the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. ECB's de Guindos speech at 9:45CET at event co-organised by Grant Thornton. ECB's Lagarde speech at 15:00CET at event organised by Académie des Sciences Morales et Politique. Bank of Spain's de Cos speech at 19:30CET at event organised by Cinco Dias (livestream). Ireland Central Bank hosts conf. on financial stability policies in a changing lending landscape (through Tue)
Also on today's agenda: EU Energy Days at COP28 (through Tue). Meetings of EU's Justice and Home Affairs Council (through Tue) and transport ministers. EU's Sinkevi�?ius meets with Norway's Minister for Climate and the Environment Eriksen, delivers speech in the Friends of Europe event on European environmental and pollution reduction objectives. EU's McGuinness in Sofia (through Tue), meets with PM Denkov, Finance Minister Vassilev, others. Norway's Agriculture and Food Minister Pollestad is present during the Finance Debate at the Storting. Germany Nov new car registrations are due to be released. Chancellor Scholz hosts Brazil's President Lula for government consultations, follows welcome last night.
Macro/politics
Geopolitics
EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine - FT
Central Banks:
UK
Fitch Affirms United Kingdom at 'AA-'; Outlook Negative - link
UK Debt Outlook Remains Negative at Fitch in Setback for Sunak - Bloomberg
Sunak Polling Worse Than Truss With Key UK Voters, Study Finds - Bloomberg
UK house prices likely to fall by 1% next year, says Rightmove - Guardian
UK economy shows signs of steadying amid pause in interest rate rises - Guardian
Sunak considers spending restraint to allow for more UK tax cuts - Bloomberg
Britain's economic stagnation leaves households £8,300 worse off - Bloomberg
Germany
Greece
Fitch Upgrades Greece to 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable - link
Greece's credit rating now at investment grade from all major agencies except Moody's - ekathimerini
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Earnings: Victrex (VCT.LN), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Integrum (INTEG.B.SS)
Trading Update: Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS)
CMD/events: Continental (CON.GR), BETMGM business update (ENT.LN)
M&A
ROG.SW (Roche) -- to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7B up front
WLN.FP (Worldline) -- reportedly weighing options including asset sales amid recent share price decline -- Reuters
888.LN (888 Holdings) -- rejected 156p/share indicative approach from Playtech - Sunday Times
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- has approached sovereign wealth funds to gauge their interest in buying stake of up to 9.9% - Bloomberg (1-Dec, 16:09 CET)
ELI.BB (Elia Group) -- agrees to acquire a 35.1% stake in energyRe Giga Projects, a US clean energy company
RBT.FP (Robertet) -- Group announces signing of an agreement for the takeover and progressive acquisition of Sonarome; price not disclosed
TPG.GR (The Platform Group) -- acquires further stakes in Lott Fahrzeugteile-Plattform
After Ferrovial's sale of Heathrow stake, airport deals may now flow - Reuters
Daiwa House, Sekisui House and Sumitomo Forestry all actively shopping for housebuilders to buy in the US - FT
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- AstraZeneca, Absci sign deal worth up to $247M to design antibody to fight cancer - FT
UCB.BB (UCB) -- presents new data on FINTEPLA at 2023 AES Annual Meeting
CYAD.BB (Celyad Oncology) -- announces CEO and managing director Georges Rawadi to step down, effective 1-Dec-23
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- Reports Positive 24-Month Antibody Persistence Data for its Single-Shot Chikungunya Vaccine IXCHIQ
MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals) -- Mithra Pharmaceuticals, Gedeon Richter sign binding Head of Terms for a twenty-year partnership to commercialize ESTELLE and DONESTA in China
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- and the Univ. of Liège explore the potential of Sarconeos (BIO101) in the treatment of viral respiratory failure
Other
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- UBS CEO Ermotti aims to identify potential successor in the next three years - Bloomberg
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- UBS to invest in US as part of strategy to garner $150B of annual new money - NZZ Am Sonntag
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- Vestas Wind Systems, DTEK sign MoU on second phase of Tyligulska wind project
RWE.GR (RWE) -- considers Europe to still be vulnerable to gas supply shocks despite cutting reliance on Russian gas - FT
BIRG.ID (Bank of Ireland Group) -- notes outcome of 2023 ECB SREP
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- Swiss Life CEO Patrick Frost to step down at AGM on 15-May-24; appoints CFO Matthias Aellig as his successor
SIX2.GR (Sixt) -- to eliminate Tesla cars from its fleet - Bloomberg
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $94.4M, +79.2% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
PROX.BB (Proximus) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- to outperform from market perform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins) -- to outperform from market perform at Bernstein
JYSK.DC (Jyske Bank) -- to buy from hold at SEB
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
SCT.LN (Softcat) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
SMDS.LN (DS Smith) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
TIETO.FH (Tietoevry) -- to buy from hold at SEB
TPE.GR (PVA TePla) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
RBREW.DC (Royal Unibrew) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
ANA.SM (Acciona) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
ABI.BB (Anheuser-Busch InBev) --to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
WIHL.SS (Wihlborgs Fastigheter) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
HTO.GA (Hellenic Telecommunications Organization) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
SCMN.SW (Swisscom) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings) -- to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Initiations
TECN.SW (Tecan Group) -- equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (0.60%) to 33231.27
Hang Seng (0.70%) to 16712.31
Shanghai Composite (0.18%) to 3026.05
S&P futures (8.5) vs prior close of 4600.8
€-$ (0.0016) or (0.15%) to 1.0869
$-¥ (0.02) or (0.02%) to 146.72
€-¥ (0.27) or (0.17%) to 159.44
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