Dec 05 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities slid Tuesday. Hang Seng was the worst performer among major regional benchmarks, dropping to new 13-month low with property and tech as notable decliners. Mainland China sharply lower too with Shanghai Comp fell below 3K level again after a month and CSI 300 down to lowest since Feb-2019. Nikkei, ASX, Kospi, Taiex all lower. India trading higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures extending losses. Treasury edged up in Asian hours after a fall on Monday with markets keeping an eye on US jobs data on Friday. Aussie bonds gained following RBA hold while AUD fell. Yen stronger against dollar. Gold turning higher following sharp pullback from record high. Crude oil higher, Bitcoin dipping below $42k level.
A weak handover from Wall Street to Asian markets as extent of dovish rate repricing over recent weeks fueling concern that markets are too optimistic about how far rates will be cut in 2024. Strategists argue amount of rate cuts being priced in is more consistent with hard landing scenario and equities nearing overbought levels following a historic November rally driven in large part by the dovish rate outlook. MSCI APAC ex-Japan slipped to three-week low while investors have continued to offload Chinese equities. Better-than-expected Caixin Services PMI failed to lift mood. Late afternoon news came Moody's cut outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative, underscoring worries about China's debt levels.
In Australia, RBA left cash rate unchanged as expected. No significant changes in policy statement with RBA conditioning further tightening on upcoming data and assessment of risks. Australian current account unexpectedly fell into deficit with net exports having bigger drag on GDP. Japan's Tokyo core inflation eased amid noticeable slowdown in goods inflation. However, services inflation rose to highest since 1994. Cooler-than-expected South Korean inflation seen easing pressure on BOK after it tempered its hawkish bias last week. Singapore retail sales dipped 0.1% y/y in October, reversing gains in prior month. Philippine central bank said it was necessary to keep monetary policy settings "sufficiently tight" and ready to take further action. Indian stock market is on verge of $4T valuation for first time amid surge in investments by retail traders and foreign inflows.
Toppan (7911.JP) has acquired Nomi factory from JOLED and will retool it to supply products to the chip industry. Press reports revealed China Evergrande (3333.HK)'s petitioner Top Shine refused to argue against adjournment while an ad hoc group of creditors will possibly step in as petitioner if Top Shine were to walk away. NetEase (9999.HK) shares tumbled with $7B been wiped off this week as investors worry about competition from Tencent (700.HK)'s upcoming launch of new game Dream Star on 15-Dec. Adani Green Energy (541450.IN) secured funding from eight global banks for largest renewables park.
Digest:
China seen targeting 'ambitious' 2024 growth target of about 5%:
Bloomberg previewed the Central Economic Work Conference set to commence this month. Cited several economists forecasting the 2024 growth target will be kept at 'about 5%' though contingent on stronger stimulus. As per usual, article noted numerical targets will not be formalized until March next year. On fiscal policy, main development remained the October announcement raising the 2023 fiscal deficit ratio to 3.8%, well above the conventional cap of 3%. Morgan Stanley sees a further increase to 4% next year. PBOC seen keeping policy loose, maintaining the current language. Focus remains on near-term expectations of an RRR cut, to be followed by policy rate cuts early next year. Additional targeted measures may include a revival of the Pledge Supplementary Lending facility previously used to provide cheap loans to policy banks to fund construction for housing and other projects. Real estate turmoil remains a key challenge and authorities are likely to reaffirm importance of large-scale development projects to help stabilize the market. They may also signal further relaxation of home purchase rules after earlier attempts have yet to stem market declines.
Key China equity benchmark falls to lowest level since 2019:
China markets continue to underperform global benchmarks with CSI 300 touching its lowest since Feb-2019 and Hang Seng skidding to lowest in 13 months. Stocks facing myriad headwinds from an ongoing property market crunch, faltering economic recovery, low consumer and business confidence, weak external demand, foreign fund outflows, and disappointment at flurry of policy support measures announced this year. China equities experienced foreign outflows for record fourth straight month in November (SCMP) and were among most sold by hedge funds (Reuters). Some strategists bearish on near-term outlook for Chinese stocks, seeing dim prospects for a valuation recovery amid earnings headwinds from rising bank NPLs and weak demand (SCMP). Others still see prospects for a rebound with MSCI China Index P/E lowest in five years. Upcoming Central Economic Work Conference also being eyed as a catalyst amid hopes authorities will step up stimulus efforts in 2024.
China Caixin Services PMI expands to three-month high in November:
Caixin services PMI was 51.5 in November, versus consensus 50.5 and 50.4 in prior month. Data in expansion for eleventh consecutive month and highest since August. There was stronger upturn in total new business midway through Q4 with rate of new order growth best recorded in three months. Overall demand for Chinese services improved with new export business rose modestly for third straight month. However employment in service sector fell marginally amid restructuring efforts, which led to rises in outstanding orders. Rate of cost inflation slowest since Jun-22 while prices charged also rose at softer pace. Business optimism rose but remained weaker than historical average. Caixin Composite PMI rose to 51.6 from 50.0 in October, signaling renewed increase in total business activity. Data also in contrast with NBS's official composite PMI, which dipped to 50.4 (YTD) in November from 50.7 prior month. Economists noted foundation for economic recovery needs to be further consolidated.
Tokyo inflation broadly eases:
Tokyo core CPI rose 2.3% y/y in November, compared to consensus 2.4%. Follows 2.7% in the previous month and marks the softest reading since July 2022. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation also eased to 3.6% from 3.8% vs consensus 3.7%. Energy drags increase by 0.17 ppt reflecting faster declines in electricity and gas prices while gasoline rose at a somewhat slower rate. Elsewhere, heavily weighted non-fresh food prices continue to decelerate while household durables turned negative. Partly offset by a major acceleration in accommodation on the back of resurgence in inbound tourism. Overall goods inflation slowed notably to 2.3% y/y from 3.4%, the lowest since November 2021. Closely watched services inflation picked up to 2.3% from 2.1%, highest since December 1997, mainly driven by communication & leisure. Results extend key developments out of the latest nationwide figures in terms of softer core inflation amid services strength. Going forward, survey evidence pointed to major pullback in proportion of grocery items set for price hikes in the early part of next year.
RBA on hold, conditions further tightening on data and assessment of risks:
RBA left cash rate at 4.35% as expected and repeated that further tightening will depend on data and evolving assessment of risks. Noted data since November's rate hike broadly in-line with expectations, and pointed out monthly CPI gauge did not provide much information on services inflation (underscoring importance of Q4 CPI in determining February's policy decision). Said impact of recent rate hikes will continue to flow through economy and holding cash rate unchanged today allows time to assess impact of tightening on demand, inflation and labour market. Highlighted significant uncertainties, including from services inflation stickiness, China's economic outlook, geopolitical conflicts, and lagged effects of past rate hikes. Early reads mixed with some economists questioning dovish market reaction given soft tightening bias was maintained. Not enough in the statement to shift economists' views that cash rate has peaked, though with a not insignificant risk of another increase.
Notable Gainers:
+29.9% 000240.KS (Hankook & Company Co.): eldest son of honorary chairman and PE firm MBK to launch tender offer for 20.35-27.32% stake in company at KRW20,000/share
+2.2% 7911.JP (TOPPAN Holdings): reportedly acquires Nomi factory from JOLED; terms undisclosed
+1.1% 9843.JP (Nitori Holdings): reports November same-stores sales +8.5% y/y
+0.2% 1878.JP (Daito Trust Construction): reports November orders ¥61.50B, +97.7% y/y
Notable Decliners:
-8.7% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): provides business update; resumes trading
-0.7% 8630.JP (Sompo): chairman/CEO Kengo Sakurada reportedly to step down due to organizational restructuring
Data:
Economic
Japan November
Tokyo core CPI +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and +2.7% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.7% and +3.8% in prior month
Overall CPI +2.6% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and revised +3.2% in prior month
November final services PMI 50.8 vs preliminary 51.7 and 51.6 in prior month
Composite PMI 49.6 vs preliminary 50.0 and 50.5 in prior month
Australia
Q3 current account balance (A$158M) vs consensus A$3.2B and A$7.72B in Q2
Net exports to subtract (0.6) ppt from Q3 GDP vs consensus (0.2) ppt subtraction and 0.8 ppt addition to Q2 GDP
South Korea
South Korea Q3 revised GDP +0.6% q/q vs preliminary +0.6% and +0.6% in prior quarter
GDP +1.4% y/y vs preliminary +1.4% and +0.9% in prior quarter
November CPI +3.3% y/y vs FactSet consensus +3.5% and +3.8% in prior month
China November
Caixin Services PMI 51.5 vs consensus 50.5 and 50.4 in prior month
Caixin Composite PMI 51.6 vs 50.0 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (455.45) or (1.37%) to 32775.82
Hang Seng: (318.19) or (1.91%) to 16327.86
Shanghai Composite: (50.62) or (1.67%) to 2972.30
Shenzhen Composite: (36.62) or (1.95%) to 1845.03
ASX200: (63.10) or (0.89%) to 7061.60
KOSPI: (20.67) or (0.82%) to 2494.28
SENSEX: 379.60 or +0.55% to 69244.72
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.48) or (0.33%) to 146.7080
$-KRW: +2.79 or +0.21% to 1313.4600
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.59%) to 0.6580
$-INR: (0.07) or (0.08%) to 83.3902
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1352
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