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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.30%) to 7490.18, DAX +0.77% to 16531.11, CAC40 +0.69% to 7383.38, STOXX 600 +0.39% to 467.58

Dec 05 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices have closed in positive territory, except for the FTSE. Of note, the DAX index hit an intraday record high. Focus today turned to the UK as the public inflation expectations survey highlighted the Challenge faced by the BoE. The latest Citi/YouGov monthly survey on public inflation expectations for the next 12 months was stable at 4.2% but edged up in five to 10 years' time to 3.5% from 3.3% in September. Data fits in with BoE's recent macroeconomic forecasts, which showed that the disinflation process is likely to be slower from here. In other central bank news, the ECB October Consumer Expectation Survey revealed 1-year CPI Expectations remained unchanged at 4.0% vs 3.8% expected. 3-year CPI Expectations were also unchanged at 2.5% v 2.5% prior. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged. Consumers expected their nominal income over the next 12 months to grow by 1.1%, which was slightly lower than in September (1.2%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were marginally more negative, at (1.3%) vs (1.2%) in September. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead were unchanged at 11.4%/ Analysts broadly suggest medium and long-term EZ inflation to remain above ECB target. Estimates vary between 2.5% to 3.5% due to plethora of structural factors including costs of reducing carbon emissions, less disinflation from a less dynamic China and, most importantly, persistent wage gains of ~4% due to labour shortages. Still, required funding for energy transition and debt sustainability issues may compel ECB to ease policy via QE or use TPI further ahead, to avoid fragmentation risks

    • In macro-news, Ifo survey of German retailers showed situation has improved somewhat with indicator up to -8.8 points in November from prior -13.5, which was the first increase in three months. However, despite the slightly improved mood in sector, demand remains a challenge even in a period where sales are likely to be strong. Other macro-data included a slew of Nov Services from Germany,. France Italy and Eurozone

    • On the earnings front, Brenntag (BNR.GR) updated its mid-term targets by 2027, reflecting the increased focus of the two divisions, a new reporting structure in line with the new divisional setup effective 2024. The company expects to grow its organic gross profits between +4-7% annually and its organic EBITA between +7-9%. In France, Compagnie des Alpes (CDA.FP) reported FY earnings and proposed a dividend of €0.91/share for the 2022/23 financial year, +10% y/y. In the Nordics, Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS) and Nordnet (SAVE.SS) issued Nov preliminary net inflow and Nov monthly statistics, respectively. Also, in Nordics, Nokia (NOKIA.FH) commented on AT&T vendor plans and indicated that it expects revenue from AT&T in Mobile Networks to decrease over the next 2-3 years. Also, Airbus (AIR.FP) CEO Guillaume Faury, in an interview with the FT, said that the company could require European government support for a commercial aircraft programme to replace the A320

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), Vivoryon Therapeutics (VVY.NA), Schaffner (SAHN.SW), Oeneo (SBT.FP), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), TUI Group (TUI.LN), Paragon Banking (PAG.LN) and Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) will be amog few other to update ivnesotrs, whilst Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), The Weir Group (WEIR.LN), and Bufab (BUFAB.SS) will hold CMDs. Macro-data will include Germany Oct factory orders, Eurozone Oct retail sales, UK Nov construction PMI, Greece Q3 GDP Ireland Nov unemployment rate among few others

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Real Estate+1.86%, Autos & Parts +1.21%, Construct & Mtls +1.11%, Travel & Leisure +0.96%, Technology +0.84%, Telecom +0.63%, Utilities +0.61%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.61%, Chemicals +0.58%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.50%, Insurance +0.49%, Banks +0.43%

      • Underperformers: Basic Resources (0.90%), Health Care (0.29%), Financial Svcs (0.01%), Food & Beverage +0.08%, Retail +0.11%, Oil & Gas +0.18%, Media +0.33%

    • Macro:

      • EU faces 'huge' risk of terrorist attacks, says official (dw)

      • Deal on EU fiscal rules unlikely this year, say officials (Reuters)

      • Germany's budget crisis threatens chipmaking ambitions (FT)

      • Russian oil price cap has largely failed, new report finds (Politico)

      • Kremlin says OPEC+ cuts will kick in later, confirms Putin to visit Gulf (Reuters)

      • Sunak Now Polling Worse Than Truss With Key UK Voters (BBG)

      • French voters don't want to hear the fiscal truth (FT)

      • Parliament to decide on ESM ratification - Economy Minister Giorgetti (Ansa)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +17.9% OTB.LN (On The Beach Group £1.38, +0.21) -- FY earnings

        • +16.2% DSCV.LN (discoverIE Group £7.02, +0.98) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.3% ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson SEK57.70, +3.40) -- new RAN collaboration with AT&T

        • +6.2% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £2.26, +0.13) -- FY earnings

        • +6.1% WAVE.FP (Wavestone €48.75, +2.80) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.5% ALMB.DC (Alm. Brand DKK11.88, +0.51) -- new DKK200M share buyback

        • +3.9% GHH.LN (Gooch & Housego £5.30, +0.20) -- FY earnings

        • +3.3% KTN.GR (Kontron €21.54, +0.68) -- €30M contract

        • +3.1% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.08, -0.00) -- Blanca-Nieves Project update

        • +2.2% BLV.FP (Believe €10.22, +0.22) -- unconfirmed rumor the company may have attracted bid interest

        • +1.9% IOM.LN (iomart Group £1.57, +0.03) -- H1 earnings; acquisition of Accesspoint Group Holdings Limited

        • +1.6% PRV.LN (Porvair £6.18, +0.10) -- acquisition of European Filter Corp.

      • Notable Decliners

        • -14.0% QUIZ.LN (QUIZ Ltd. £0.06, -0.01) -- H1 earnings

        • -6.2% NOKIA.FH (Nokia €2.81, -0.19) -- AT&T RAN plans with competitor vendor

        • -4.2% VLS.LN (Velocys £0.00, -0.00) -- agrees recommended cash acquisitionat 0.25p in cash by Madison Bidco

        • -3.7% AHT.LN (Ashtead Group £47.39, -1.81) -- Q2 earnings

        • -3.7% CML.LN (CML Microsystems £3.67, -0.14) -- H1 earnings

        • -2.5% SPEX.SW (Spexis CHF0.05, -0.00) -- granted debt-restructuring moratorium by the Western District Court of the Canton Basel-Landschaft

        • -2.4% BARC.LN (Barclays £1.40, -0.03) -- Qatar said be offering ~362M Barclays shares -- Bloomberg

        • -2.4% PMI.LN (Premier Miton Group £0.61, -0.02) -- FY earnings

        • -1.9% VCT.LN (Victrex £14.22, -0.27) -- FY earnings

        • -1.3% CDA.FP (Compagnie des Alpes €13.92, -0.18) -- FY earnings

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Benelux: Vivoryon Therapeutics (VVY.NA)

      • DACHs: Schaffner (SAHN.SW)

      • France: Oeneo (SBT.FP)

      • Nordics: Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)

      • UK: TUI Group (TUI.LN), Paragon Banking (PAG.LN), Redde Northgate (REDD.LN)

      • Trading update: British American Tobacco (BATS.LN)

      • Traffic: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO)

      • CMD/events: Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), The Weir Group (WEIR.LN), Sberbank Russia (SBER.RU), Bufab (BUFAB.SS)

      • Holidays: Finland (Independence Day)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Nov Services PMI

        • Germany 49.5 vs preliminary 48.7

        • UK 50.9 vs preliminary 50.5

        • Eurozone 48.7 vs preliminary 48.2

        • France 45.4 vs preliminary 45.3

        • Sweden 48.3 vs consensus 49.1 and prior 48.5

        • Spain 51.0 vs consensus 51.5 and prior 51.5

      • Oct Industrial Production

        • France (0.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.5%)

        • Spain (1.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.7%) and prior revised (1.2%) from (1.4%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$0.49 or +0.67% to $73.53

      • €-$ (0.0047) or (0.43%) to 1.0791

      • £-$ (0.0039) or (0.31%) to 1.2595

      • €-£ (0.0010) to 0.8567

      • S&P 500 (0.01%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.52%

        • DAX: +18.73%

        • CAC: +14.05%

        • MIB: +26.83%

        • Stoxx 600: +10.05%

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