Dec 05 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed to lower. Asian equities weaker Tuesday with regional benchmarks near worst levels with semis weighing on Nikkei and Kospi. US equity futures also lower. Bonds firmer, leaving US 10-year yields 2 bps lower at 4.23%. Dollar slightly firmer versus euro and sterling, weaker versus Japanese yen. Oil flat. Gold firmer. Industrial metals lower.
Extent of dovish rate repricing over recent weeks fueling concern markets too optimistic about how far rates will be cut in 2024. Strategists argue amount of rate cuts being priced in is more consistent with hard landing scenario and equities nearing overbought levels following a historic November rally driven in large part by the dovish rate outlook. ECB's Schnabel confirming it can take rate hikes off the table but warned against guiding for steady rates through mid-2024. RBA left cash rate unchanged as expected.
European macro data releases for today are light with France Oct Industrial Production due at 7:45 GMT, followed by Eurozone Oct PPI at 10:00 GMT. UK industry data showed retail sales weaker in the run-up to the holiday trading period. Citi/YouGov survey showed public inflation expectations still on the higher side.
In central banks, Riksbank's Thedéen speech at 7:30CET at seminar organised by SBAB; ECB publishes latest Consumer Expectations Survey results at 10:00CET; ECB's Tuominen speech and panellist at 14:20CET at event organised by the European Banking Institute; BOE's Mills panellist at 15:30GMT at FT crypto and digital assets summit. In Germany, Bundestag Budget Committee holds hearing on the supplementary budget for 2023 and suspension of the debt brake.
In corporate highlights, press reports suggest Airbus (AIR.FP) could require EU government support for commercial aircraft programme to replace A320. Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) commissioned external investigation by auditor EY into Postbank IT integration. AT&T (T) confirmed extension of collaboration with Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS). Roche (ROG.SW) Genentech's Phase III INAVO120 study met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival.
Politics/ Macro/ World News
ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop; defends smaller balance sheet as debate heats up - Reuters, Reuters
UK's new car registrations up nearly 9% in November, according to prelim data - Reuters
UK Nov retail sales monitor +2.6% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and prior +2.6% - BRC
UK retail sales in Nov fell short despite Black Friday efforts -- BRC KPMG Retail sales monitor
India, UK seek to wrap up trade talks before busy election year - Bloomberg
Germany's budget woes risk dampening its chipmaking ambitions - FT
Zelenskiy invited to address senators as Ukraine aid's ensnared - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
CDA.FP (Compagnie des Alpes) -- FY net income attributable €90.4M vs FactSet €86.8M [6 est, €78.3-97M]
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- comments on AT&T vendor plans; now expects revenue from AT&T in Mobile Networks to decrease over next 2-3 years
DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding) -- continues to expect organic growth to be in line with its 3-5% mid-term guidance; CEO Jim Heng Lee to leave company to return to Asia
M&A
BX (Blackstone) -- reportedly exploring potential sale of Anthos Therapeutics -- Reuters
OMV.AV (OMV) -- to enter into negotiations with bidders for potential Sapurasale; to continue sales process for NZL separately
VID.SM (Vidrala) -- completes Vidroporto acquisition
RISH.NO (GC Rieber Shipping) -- The board of GC Rieber resolves to carry out a compulsory acquisition of all remaining shares in GC Rieber Shipping
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- acquires Impactiva group S.A.; terms undisclosed
UNIR.IM (UniEuro) -- completes acquisition of Covercare S.p.A.
BLC.FP (Bastide Le Confort Medical) -- announces sale of Distrimed subsidiary to Hygie31; financial terms undisclosed
TGHN.GR (Logwin) -- acquires ATL Logistics BV
TXT.IM (TXT e-Solutions) -- acquires FastCode S.p.A
SAMS.FP (Groupe Samse) -- enters exclusive negotiations with the HERIGE Group (ALHRG.FP) to acuire its trading branch
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- eyeing first drugs designed to prevent obesity - FT
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Genentech's Phase III INAVO120 study met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival
CYAD.BB (Celyad Oncology) -- Celyad announces that its CEO and managing director Georges Rawadi has decided to step down, effective 1-Dec-23.
VLA.FP (Valneva), Pfizer (PFE) -- complete recruitment for Phase 3 VALOR trial for Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15
IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- notes recommendation to continue lanifibranor NATiV3 Phase III trial in patients with NASH
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- announces closing of the remaining $4.8M investment from Johnson & Johnson Innovation
IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications) -- signs research collaboration agreement with University of Kansas Medical Center on FLASH technology
Other
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- could require European government support for commercial aircraft programme to replace A320 - FT
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- commissions external investigation by auditor EY into Postbank IT integration - Handelsblatt (4-Dec, 15:58 CET)
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- Qatar said be offering ~362M Barclays shares -- Bloomberg
OERL.SW (OC Oerlikon Corp.) -- to strategically realign additive manufacturing business
BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues) -- notes outcome of 2023 ECB SREP
SPEX.SW (Spexis) -- has been granted debt-restructuring moratorium
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- awarded contract worth over €30M for fiber optic solutions
CRL.IM (Carel Industries) -- announces conclusion of the subscription period of the rights issue
ERIC.B.SS (Ericsson) -- AT&T (T) to accelerate open and interoperable RAN in US through new collaboration with Ericsson
Premier League concludes four-year deals to 2028/29 season with Sky Sports and TNT for UK live rights
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- approves $77M pre-feasibility study to progress development of Rhodes Ridge project
Key rating changes
Upgrades
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) -- to buy from hold at SBG Securities
BLND.LN (British Land Co.) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
LAND.LN (Land Securities Group)-- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
POM.FP (Plastic Omnium) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- to buy from neutral at Sparebank 1 Markets
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- to buy from neutral at Sparebank 1 Markets
Downgrades
ATG.LN (Auction Technology Group) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
AEDAS.SM (AEDAS Homes) -- to hold from buy at Mirabaud
EAPI.FP (Euroapi) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables) -- to neutral from buy at CaixaBank
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
UCB.BB (UCB) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
GFC.FP (Gecina) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
S32.LN (South32) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
STMN.SW (Straumann Holding) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
ATG.LN (Auction Technology Group) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
ECO.LN (Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas) -- to neutral from buy at Sparebank 1 Markets
Initiations
AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec) -- underweight at JPMorgan
HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd) -- underweight at Barclays
SPSN.SW (Swiss Prime Site) -- outperform at Oddo
PSPN.SW (PSP Swiss Property) -- neutral at Oddo
Other
FIA1S.FH (Finnair) -- reinstated hold at Nordea; prior rating was hold
Data
Nikkei (1.37%) to 32775.82
Hang Seng (2.19%) to 16281.17
Shanghai Composite (1.31%) to 2983.29
S&P futures (13.8) vs prior close of 4576.5
€-$ (0.0006) or (0.06%) to 1.0832
$-¥ (0.27) or (0.18%) to 146.92
€-¥ (0.30) or (0.19%) to 159.14
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