Dec 06 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian equities advanced Wednesday. Nikkei and ASX outperformed in region, Hang Seng edged up after touching 13-month low yesterday, mainland China mixed, Taiex and Kospi logged mild gains, India trading higher, southeast Asia mostly higher, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures advancing. Treasury yields inched up slightly after 10Y yield dropping below 4.2% Tuesday, Aussie bonds and JGB rallied, AUD and NZD both gained against dollar, yen slightly stronger too, Crude oil marginally higher, gold higher too.
Mixed handover from Wall Street to Asian markets with focus on bond yields falling following soft US labor data, which provided further support to soft landing, disinflation and peak Fed narratives. Markets also betting other central banks will join Fed in easing policy in 2024. Meanwhile there were thoughts that markets are becoming too optimistic in expectations of rate cuts, setting stage for disappointment if policymakers choose to push back more forcefully. Lots of press coverage on China stock slump deepening as traders remain wary of economic health. Moody's outlook downgrade was leaked before official announcement, coinciding with accelerated selloff on Tuesday afternoon. China also hit back at Moody's, saying its understanding of Chinese economy "is not deep enough". PBOC stepped up defense of yuan after fixing midpoint with a strong bias and press reports that Chinese state banks were selling dollars for second day.
Australian GDP growth missed expectations as cost-of-living pressures saw consumption growth slowed to lowest since early 2021. Reuters Tankan showed Japan manufacturer sentiment rose sharply amid easing of chip shortage and higher auto output. Comes ahead of Japan Q3 GDP second print on Friday with consensus looking for a narrower contraction. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino reiterated need for continued easing with inflation progress mixed, though also discussed hypothetical outcome from stimulus exit. Indian equity outperformance continues to receive press attention with market cap topping $4T
NIO (9866.HK) plans to spin off battery production unit in bid to turn profitable. BYD (1211.HK) plans to buy back CNY200M ($27.9M) worth of its Shenzhen-listed shares. Sands China (1928.HK) controlling shareholder Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to buy up to HK$1.95B of shares to raise its stake in the firm. YG entertainment (122870.KS) renews exclusive group contract with K-pop band Blackpink.
Digest:
Moody's cuts China credit outlook to "negative":
Moody's Investors Service changed outlook of China's government credit ratings from "stable" to "negative" while affirming China's A1 long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings (Reuters). Moody's said downgrade reflects growing evidence that authorities will have to provide financial support for financially stressed local governments and SOEs, posing broad risks. Added outlook change also reflects increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and ongoing downsizing of property sector. Noted it was Moody's first change on China view since it cut rating by one notch to A1 in 2017. China's Ministry of Finance said it was disappointed by Moody's downgrade, adding economy will be highly resilient and de-risking in local government debt is making progress while China's government debt level at 50.4% by end-2022, lower than 60% seen as warning level (SecuritiesTimes). Bloomberg citing economists noted risk of rating downgrade unlikely to reverse Beijing's debt issuance plan of additional CNY1T to support disaster relief and construction.
Moody's China outlook cut was leaked, state bank yuan support ramped up:
Bloomberg reported Moody's China outlook downgrade was leaked on WeChat at 10:51 am Beijing time Tuesday ahead of the official announcement at 3:25 pm. Sources indicated market speculation of a potential cut started as early as last Friday in private chat rooms. Lead time coincided with accelerated selling in mainland China equities Tuesday afternoon with CSI 300 down 1.9%. Article noted ratings firms typically notify government involved a few days prior to an announcement. Reuters, citing sources, said state-owned banks were supporting yuan yesterday and activity intensified after the Moody's announcement. State banks were seen procuring dollars in onshore swaps and selling them back in the spot market throughout the session. Article noted skepticism that such quasi-intervention would be sustained on Moody's downgrade alone, noting the primary issue remains China's real estate turmoil. ANZ suggested the yuan outlook depends more on US rates and economic data. Reuters added state banks continued to sell dollars for yuan Wednesday, albeit at a milder pace.
Australian GDP growth below forecasts as consumption hits weakest since early 2021:
Australian Q3 GDP grew 0.2% q/q, lower than consensus 0.5% and prior quarter's 0.4% increase. Yearly rate of growth unchanged at 2.1% against expectation for a 1.9% increase. Government expenditure (+0.2%), investment (+0.2%) and inventories (+0.4%) made positive contributions to growth, offsetting drag from net exports (-0.6%). Household consumption growth (y/y) slowed to lowest since Covid-impacted Q1 2021, reflecting cost of living pressures as savings ratio dropped to lowest since Q4 2007. Employee compensation registered largest rise in Q3 2022, driven by July's outsized minimum wage hike and labour market tightness. Productivity metrics improved with GDP per hour turning positive over the quarter and growth in unit labour costs slowing. Recall RBA has stated wage growth remains consistent with inflation target, provided productivity picks up. Subdued consumption also appeared to dent household resilience narrative that led to November's rate hike.
Street still thinks RBA cash rate has peaked:
Street takeaways from RBA's hold decision Tuesday did not provide much color on the policy statement. Nothing particularly incremental to shift near-term rate expectations. Most still see cash rate having peaked at 4.35%, though acknowledge risks skewed towards more tightening. The minor changes to the statement were perceived as dovish, including RBA repeating that further tightening will depend on upcoming data and assessment of risks. Also some attention to comments discussing policy lags and economic impact of recent hikes. However, February still seen as 'live' meeting for a rate hike, especially if Q4 CPI shows ongoing services inflation stickiness. February will also coincide with updated economic projections and RBA extending forecast horizon to H1 2026. Additionally, RBA's low tolerance for slower-than-expected return of inflation target reinforced views cash rate will remain higher for longer, delaying dovish pivot until late 2024.
BOJ's Himino says inflation progress mixed, fathoms risks from easing exit:
In a speech, BOJ Deputy Govenor Himino discussed inflation developments, citing various anecdotes indicating how companies were adapting to changes in pricing dynamics. Essentially said that evidence of progress in the transition from imported to domestically driven inflation has been patchy and by no means secured. Still, Himino suggested solid progress has been made in the transformation of firms' wage and price setting behavior. Cited BOJ historical analysis of the relationship between prices and wages; while signs of wage growth feeding further price increases are not yet statistically significant, the estimated impact has risen recently. Explained that BOJ has patiently continued with large-scale easing to support economic activity and facilitate a favorable environment for wage growth. Repeated BOJ messaging that easing would continue until stable achievement of the price stability target accompanied by wage increases comes into sight. Himino also hypothetically discussed potential impacts of policy normalization, though with no clear bias, and stressed BOJ should tread carefully.
Notable Gainers:
+25.6% 122870.KS (YG Entertainment): all four members of Blackpink have renewed group contract with company
+16.8% 19.HK (Swire Pacific): to conduct up-to-HK$6B A, B share buyback; to run between 6-Dec and May 2025 AGM
+4.1% 4568.JP (Daiichi Sankyo): subsidiary obtains $182M (¥26.4B) settlement resolving U.S. patent infringement lawsuit against Novartis
+1.5% 8001.JP (ITOCHU): reportedly open to acquiring Bigmotor
+1.2% 3697.JP (SHIFT Inc): to acquire promotional services firm Club Nets for ¥5.75B
+1.2% 9434.JP (SoftBank Corp): to take 51.0% stake in Cubic Telecom for €473M (¥75.11B)
+1.2% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): proposes up to $600M on-market share buyback
Notable Decliners:
-24.7% 853.HK (MicroPort Scientific): proposes repurchaes of certain convertible boonds and the issuance of $220M convertible bonds
-1.7% 7550.JP (Zensho Holdings): 5.2M-share public offering priced at ¥7,285/share
Data:
Economic
Japan
December Reuters Tankan manufacturers' sentiment index +12 vs +6 in prior month
Service sector index +26 vs +27 in prior month
Australia
Q3 GDP +0.2% q/q vs consensus +0.5% and +0.4% in Q2
GDP +2.1% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and +2.1% in Q2
Markets:
Nikkei: 670.08 or +2.04% to 33445.90
Hang Seng: 135.40 or +0.83% to 16463.26
Shanghai Composite: (3.36) or (0.11%) to 2968.93
Shenzhen Composite: 10.13 or +0.55% to 1855.16
ASX200: 116.80 or +1.65% to 7178.40
KOSPI: 1.10 or +0.04% to 2495.38
SENSEX: 240.63 or +0.35% to 69536.77
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.17) or (0.12%) to 146.9800
$-KRW: (1.62) or (0.12%) to 1312.1000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.52% to 0.6585
$-INR: (0.11) or (0.13%) to 83.3097
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.1446
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