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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.02%) to 7513.72, DAX (0.16%) to 16628.99, CAC40 (0.10%) to 7428.52, STOXX 600 (0.27%) to 468.78

Dec 07 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets were weaker in choppy trade today. Utilities, Basic Resources were the biggest outperformers, whilst healthcare, banks and real estate lagged. Bonds mixed after recent gains. US 10-year yield 2 bps higher at 4.14% and Bund off 2 bp at 2.19%. US Dollar mixed; higher vs. Loonie and Swissy; lower elsewhere with big move versus Japanese yen. Oil up after hitting five-month low on Wednesday. Gold down at this time. Industrial metals mostly higher. US equity markets higher.

    • Markets taking a breather after outsized bounce over last five weeks or so on the back of disinflation, increasing likelihood that next move for Fed, ECB and BoE will be a rate cut. Reuters poll shows majority expect BoE to start rate cutting cycle from Q3 next year, later than the swaps market is pricing. First ECB rate cut priced in late Q1, though majority of sell-side economists thinks this may be too aggressive. Villeroy tried to dampened speculation in comments late Wednesday, but also conceded it could consider a reduction in 2024. Impasse over German budget negotiations continued into Thursday after coalition government missed Wednesday's self-imposed deadline; government must get parliamentary approval by year-end, otherwise it will have to resort to temporary budget that keeps new spending frozen.

    • In macroeconomics updates, German industrial production weaker than forecast. UK Halifax house price data in line with recent Nationwide update, which shows increase in prices. France Oct Trade Balance came in at (€8.6B) vs consensus (€8.5B). In Italy industrial production in Oct fell (0.2%) m/m vs cons (0.3%), whilst Oct retail sales were up +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior revised (0.4%) from (0.3%). Switzerland Nov Unemployment Rate came in line with expectations at 2.1%.

    • On the corporate front, Coats Group PLC (COA.LN) traded higher today after announcing that it has reached agreement with the trustee of the Coats UK Pension Scheme to switch off pension deficit repair payments1 from 1-Jan-24; DS Smith (SMDS.LN) also up on the back of interim results. Further out of the UK, Future Plc (FUTR.LN) shares traded lower following FY numbers, initiation of a two-year £25M-£30M investment programme as well as CFO stepping down. In the DACHs, thyssenkrupp (TKA.GR) was under pressure following media report that the company may need to hand over cash or keep hold of some pension liabilities to win over Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky as a co-owner of its steel business. ams-OSRAM (AMS.SW) sells remaining shares following rights issue, securing ~ CHF 781M gross proceeds from rights issue. Spotlight on the Health Care sector with attention on Sanofi (SAN.FP) after the drugmaker said it has a dozen drug candidates with annual sales potential of more than $1B in development. Further, NICE was unable to make recommendation on Sanofi's Dupixent to treat osinophilic oesophagitis in people 12 years and over. Group also announced Sarclisa (isatuximab) Phase 3 trial met primary endpoint of progression free survival in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma not eligible for transplant.

    • In M&A, Sienna Bidco (KKR) made a recommended cash offer of 955p/sh for Smart Metering Systems (SMS.LN). Apax Partners raised its offer for Kin & Carta (KCT.LN) to 120p/sh from 110p/sh. Media reports suggest Bain Capital is the sole remaining bidder for SoftwareONE Holding (SWON.SW).

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Basic Resources +0.87%, Utilities +0.36%, Chemicals +0.33%, Insurance +0.17%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.02%, Construct & Mtls +0.02%, Media (0.09%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.10%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.16%), Technology (0.21%), Travel & Leisure (0.22%), Telecom (0.26%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Retail (1.00%), Health Care (0.82%), Banks (0.66%), Oil & Gas(0.50%), Consumer Products and Services (0.44%), Real Estate (0.32%), Autos & Parts (0.29%)

    • Macro:

      • Economy:

        • Recession signs grow for Eurozone with major nation industrials falter in Nov - Bloomberg

        • France and Germany split on key plank of new European debt rules - Bloomberg

      • Central Banks:

        • ECB's Lagarde squeezed as markets boost 2024 rate-cut bets - Bloomberg, Bloomberg

        • Sell-side split on when BoE will start rate cutting cycle - Reuters

      • Germany:

        • Budget crisis seen dragging on until next year - Reuters

        • German coalition aiming for Friday budget deal after missing Wednesday deadline - Politico

      • Russia and Saudi Arabia urge all OPEC+ powers to join oil cuts - Reuters

    • Peripheral markets:

      • Italy:

        • Industrial production in October drops 0.2% month on month, Istat - ANSA

        • Belt and Road: Italy pulls out of flagship Chinese project - Reuters

        • Silk Road has not delivered expected results says Meloni - ANSA

      • Spain:

        • Calviño touts Spain's economic credentials in pitch for EIB - FT

      • Greece:

        • Greece and Turkey agree to mend ties - Kathimerini

          • Fifteen agreements signed between Greece and Turkey - Kathimerini

      • Moldova/ Serbia:

        • Moldova volunteers to run COP29 climate summit, Serbia also mulls bid - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +41.2% SMS.LN (Smart Metering Systems £9.60, +2.80) -- Sienna Bidco (KKR) makes recommended cash offer of 955p/sh for Smart Metering Systems

        • +31.3% POLX.LN (Polarean Imaging £0.07, +0.02) -- first de novo order for a new XENOVIEW polariser

        • +16.0% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £2.99, +0.41) -- FY earnings

        • +11.9% COA.LN (Coats Group £0.76, +0.08) -- Switch off of Pension Deficit Repair Payments

        • +9.6% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £2.85, +0.25) -- journal publication

        • +8.1% KCT.LN (Kin + Carta £1.12, +0.08) -- Apax Partners raises offer for Kin & Carta to 120p/sh from 110p/sh

        • +7.1% BMY.LN (Bloomsbury Publishing £4.52, +0.30) -- trading update

        • +6.5% ACCON.SS (Acconeer SEK22.20, +1.35) -- order

        • +6.5% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics £0.07, -0.00) -- trading update

        • +4.4% DBG.FP (Derichebourg €4.84, +0.20) -- FY earnings

        • +3.2% ENQ.LN (EnQuest £0.13, -0.00) -- new CFO

        • +2.9% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €3.07, +0.09) -- journal publication; FDA grants priority review for NDA for elafibranor

      • Notable Decliners

        • -24.4% EUA.LN (Eurasia Mining £0.01, -0.00) -- corporate update

        • -22.8% VTU.LN (Vertu Motors £0.66, -0.19) -- trading update

        • -21.8% SDI.LN (SDI Group £0.88, -0.24) -- H1 earnings

        • -16.1% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £6.31, -1.21) -- FY earnings; CFO to step down

        • -15.2% HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources £0.11, -0.02) -- corporate strategy update

        • -14.6% CHAR.LN (Chariot £0.12, -0.02) -- partnership agreements with Energean (ENOG.LN) on Moroccan offshore licences

        • -13.7% GAW.LN (Games Workshop Group £91.50, -14.50) -- trading update

        • -11.2% HANZA.SS (HANZA AB SEK84.10, -10.60) -- 3.5M-share directed new share issue priced at SEK85/share

        • -5.4% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €6.43, -0.37) -- may have to inject cash to forge steel business deal - Reuters, citing sources

        • -4.8% MIPS.SS (MIPS SEK302.60, -15.20) -- CEO Max Strandwitz sells 45,000 shares

        • -4.2% TPE.GR (PVA TePla €19.37, -0.85) -- new CEO

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN)

      • Traffic: Finnair (FIA1S.FH)

      • CMD/events: Investor (INV.B.SS), Elia Group (ELI.BB)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Q3 GDP 0.0% y/y vs 2nd estimate +0.1%; Eurozone Q3 GDP (0.1%) q/q vs 2nd estimate (0.1%)

      • UK Nov Halifax House Prices (1%) y/y vs cons (2.1%) and prior (3.2%); +0.5% m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior +1.1%

      • Germany Oct Industrial Production (0.4%) m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior revised (1.3%) from (1.4%)

      • France Oct Trade Balance (€8.6B) vs cons (€8.5B) and prior revised (€8.87B) from (€8.92B)

      • Italy Oct

        • Retail Sales +0.3% y/y vs cons +1.0% and prior revised +1.2% from +1.3%; +0.4% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior revised (0.4%) from (0.3%)

        • Industrial Production (1.1%) y/y vs cons (2.3%) and prior (2.0%); (0.2%) m/m vs cons (0.3%) and prior revised +0.1% from 0.0%

      • Switzerland Nov Unemployment Rate 2.1% vs cons 2.1% and prior 2.0%

      • Norway Oct Manufacturing Production +0.6% m/m vs cons +0.7% and prior (1.3%)

      • Austria Oct Industrial Production (1.0%) y/y vs cons (0.5%) and prior revised (1.8%) from (3.3%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$0.12 or +0.17% to $69.50

      • €-$ +0.0024 or +0.22% to 1.0788

      • £-$ +0.0017 or +0.14% to 1.2576

      • €-£ +0.0006 to 0.8578

      • S&P 500 +0.68%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.83%

        • DAX: +19.43%

        • CAC: +14.75%

        • MIB: +27.12%

        • Stoxx 600: +10.33%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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