Dec 07 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open lower amidst Asian equities lower Thursday. Hang Seng leading China markets on the downside with tech and property stocks under pressure. Moody's China ratings outlook change continues to reverberate. Elsewhere, soft rebound in China exports attributed to year-end holiday retail demand and base year effects. Lead indicators have been mixed with manufacturing PMI new export orders stuck in contraction though services PMI new export business better. Imports unexpectedly shrank, underscoring tepid domestic demand. S&P 500 futures marginally lower afterhours.
In Central Banks, Eurogroup meeting - ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone participate, Cyprus Central Bank's Herodotou speech at 8:25CET at a bank conf in Nicosia, Bank of Austria's Holzmann speech at 8:45CET at conf title Equilibrium Real Interest Rates - concepts, current and future drivers: New insights and policy implications, Bundesbank's Wuermeling speech at 10:20CET at BankenTech 2023, ECB publishes latest Macroprudential Bulletin at 11:00CET, Riksbank's Bunge speech at 16:00CET at Mötesplats Allmännyttan (Wed-Thu), organised by Public Housing Sweden, the same time as ECB's Elderson speaks at an event organised by the Centre for European Policy Studies.
Also on today's agenda: EU-China summit (through Fri), EU's von der Leyen among the participants. Greece's PM Mitsotakis meeting with Turkey's Erdogan in Thessaloniki. Norway's PM Støre and Minister for Business Vestre visit Tokyo (through Fri). Representatives from Norwegian business will also be on the trip. In UK, parliament committee topics include managing government borrowing (10:00GMT, includes OBR's Hughes). Russia's President Putin expected to speak at the annual "Russia Calling!" conf. Ministers attending the EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) are expected to reach a general approach on the Net-Zero Industry Act. European Health Summit speakers include EU's Reynders, Novo Nordisk's (NOVO.B.DC) CEO. EU's Wojciechowski in India (through Sun): participates in High-level Agri-food Trade Mission. EU's Sinkevi�?ius speech at Sustainable Solar Europe 2023 conf. In Germany, special meeting at 9:30CET of the Federal Council on the supplementary budget for 2023. Mercosur summit in Rio de Janeiro
On the macro front, Germany Oct industrial production, Switzerland Nov unemployment rate, France Oct trade balance, Italy Oct industrial production, retail sales, Norway Oct manufacturing production, Eurozone Q3 final GDP, UK Nov house price index - Halifax.
In Corporate news, Ipsen (IPN.FP) provided a new mid-term outlook and outlined its strategy for 2027. The company expects Total-sales average growth of at least 7% per year at constant exchange rates between 2023-2027 and a Core operating margin in 2027 of at least 32% of total sales. In Norway, Höegh Autoliners (HAUTO.NO) issued November trading updated indicating to 1.3M CBM of cargo transported on prorated basis.
In M&A, Ferrero's CTH invest entered in exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of Danone's (BN.FP) Michel et Augustin. In Switzerland, Reuters reported that Bain Capital is reportedly sole remaining bidder for SoftwareONE Holding (SWON.SW). The article goes on to note that other potential acquirers have dropped out of the bidding process since the site previously reported in October that at least four parties had submitted non-binding bids during the company's ongoing strategic review.
Among companies still due to report this morning are DS Smith (SMDS.LN), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.LN), Frasers Group (FRAS.LN), and Balfour Beatty (BBY.LN). CMD/events: Sanofi (SAN.FP) R&D, BASF (BAS.GR), Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR), Inwido (INWI.SS), Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS), Ipsen (IPN.FP), BT Group (BT.A.LN)
Politics/ Macro/ World News
ECB May Consider Rate Cuts in 2024, Not Now, Villeroy Says - Bloomberg
ECB's Lagarde Squeezed as Markets Boost 2024 Rate-Cut Bets - Bloomberg
Robert Jenrick quits over Sunak's 'fatally flawed' Rwanda Bill - The Telegraph
UK Wage Hike to Hit Shoppers' Pockets, Warn Pub and Retail Chiefs - Bloomberg
Bank of England to examine risks posed by artificial intelligence - The Times
Top company news
Earnings/updates
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- provides new mid-term outlook - CMD
HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners) -- November 2023 Trading Update: transported 1.3M CBM of cargo on prorated basis
M&A
ALHRG.FP (HERIGE) -- in talks to sell Building Materials Trading division to SAMSE Group
BN.FP (Danone) -- Ferrero's CTH invest enters in exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of Danone's Michel et Augustin
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- Saint-Gobain reaches agreement for sale of majority stake in its PIR insulation activity in the UK; terms not disclosed
LICY (Li-Cycle Holdings) -- Li-Cycle 11.3% holder Glencore files amended 13D: says in discussions about potential financial and strategic alternatives regarding the company - 13D/A
PAX (Patria Investments) -- to acquire Credit Suisse's Real Estate business in Brazil for up to BRL650M ($130M)
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- Bain Capital reported to be sole remaining bidder for SoftwareONE Holding -- Reuters
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- announces acquisition of 55% stake in 60-megawatt Mosselbanken Solar Plant; terms not disclosed
BBED.NA (Beter Bed Holding) -- and Torqx Capital Partners announce final results of offer; 98.44% of shares obtained
THAG.SW (Talenthouse) -- announces all agenda items approved by shareholders at extraordinary general meeting
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- to detail pipeline at R&D Day in New York
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- NICE unable to make recommendation on Sanofi's Dupixent to treat osinophilic oesophagitis in people 12 years and over
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- CEO admits he could have done better at explaining aspects of R&D plan - FT
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- confirms FDA grants priority review for NDA for elafibranor for the treatment of rare cholestatic liver disease, PBC
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- announces publication of NIS2+ performance in Journal of Hepatology
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- Hansa Biopharm announces Imlifidase demonstrated positive safety, tolerability, and early efficacy outcomes in 15-HMedIdeS-09 phase 2 trial in Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS)
1801.HK (Innovent Biologics) -- expands licensing deal with Synaffix following positive preliminary clinical signal from ongoing Phase 1 study
CRNA.NO (Circio Holding) -- announces completion of planned safety review and opening for full enrollment of TG01 study at Oslo University Hospital
Other
AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM) -- ams OSRAM hereby announces that 99.0% of the subscription rights for 716.8M Offered Shares under the current Rights Issue have been validly exercised
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- Lindt & Sprüngli announces science-based climate targets
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- to market perform from underperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
TELIA.SS (Telia Co.) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
ADYEN.NA (ADYEN) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
Downgrades
CON.GR (Continental) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
VOD.LN (Vodafone Group) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
WLN.FP (Worldline) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
AF.FP (Air France-KLM) -- to underweight from overweight at JPMorgan
IAG.SM (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- to underweight from overweight at JPMorgan
KRX.ID (Kingspan Group) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
ROCK.B.DC (Rockwool) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Initiations
CVSG.LN (CVS Group) -- buy at Panmure Gordon (6-Dec, timing uncertain)
Other Actions
OXB.LN (Oxford BioMedica) -- reinstated buy at Peel Hunt; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei (1.76%) to 32858.31
Hang Seng (1.01%) to 16297.18
Shanghai Composite +0.03% to 2969.76
S&P futures (2.5) vs prior close of 4556.0
€-$ +0.0004 or +0.04% to 1.0768
$-¥ (1.10) or (0.75%) to 146.24
€-¥ (1.15) or (0.73%) to 157.43
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