Dec 12 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower and near the lowest level of the session. Switzerland +0.2% the notable outperformer. Weakness in Energy, Basic Resources and Real Estate weighing, while Media, Technology and Travel & Leisure lead. Note, Euro Stoxx 50 the most overbought in 20 years after gaining 14% from intra-day low in October, according to relative strength index.
Market focused on some of the last key events for 2023, particularly US CPI report, tomorrow's Fed decision and updated dot plot, and ECB decision.
UK labor market data saw wage growth cooler than forecast and increase in claimant count. German ZEW surprised on the upside at 12.8 vs consensus 8.8 and prior 9.8 amid recent increase in ECB rate cut expectations.
UK PM Sunak faced a crunch vote in Parliament on Tuesday on flagship Rwanda bill, aimed at reducing illegal immigration (BBC). Last month, the Supreme Court declared the policy, which seeks to send illegal immigrants to Rwanda, as unlawful. Sunak revived the policy with a new treaty and brought forward emergency legislation (Reuters). The BoE published guidance on implementation of Basel 3.1.
Amidst a light corporate newsflow, Nokia (NOKIA.FH) lowered comparable operating margin target to be achieved by 2026 from prior "at least 14%" to at "least 13%" and issued its planning assumptions for 2024. In the UK, RWS Holdings (RWS.LN) reported FY whilst - after the market close yesterday - Spectris (SXS.LN) announced the sale of Red Lion Controls to HMS Networks (HMS.SS) for $345M (£286M). In the DACH region, Hannover Re (HNR1.GR) issued 2024 guidance and Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR) reported FY.
In other corporate news, Nordic Semiconductor (NOD.NO) announced CEO Svenn-Tore Larsen was stepping down on 31-Dec-23 after 22 years as CEO, whilst NEL ASA (NEL.NO) sold all its 11.7M shares in Everfuel (EFUEL.NO) for a total consideration of NOK 116.6M, equal to NOK 9.97/sh. Elsewhere, UK's CMA will scrutinise 'green' claims made by Unilever (ULVR.LN) about certain household essential items, such as a number of cleaning products and toiletries and Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) announced its Strategic Plan 2023-26. In M&A, Kerry Group (KRZ.ID) announced it will acquire part of global lactase enzyme business of Chr. Hansen Holding (CHR.DC) and Novozymes (NZYM.B.DC) on a carve out basis for total consideration €150M. Chr. Hansen Holding and Novozymes also announced they have obtained European Commission approval for their combination, conditional upon the divestment.
Tomorrow sees earnings from Inditex (ITX.SM) and METRO (B4B.GR).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Media +0.85%, Technology +0.40%, Travel & Leisure +0.37%, Chemicals +0.29%, Insurance +0.21%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.05%, Construct & Mtls +0.01%, Consumer Products and Services (0.19%)
Underperformers:
Energy(1.37%), Basic Resources (0.95%), Real Estate (0.74%), Telecom (0.73%), Retail (0.60%), Autos & Parts (0.57%), Banks (0.52%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.36%), Utilities (0.32%), Health Care (0.22%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.22%)
Macro:
ECB:
ECB must cement its QT plans to avoid confusing markets - Bloomberg
France:
Germany:
German coalition to resume talks on revised 2024 budget Tuesday - Bloomberg
UK:
BoE outlines guidance for banks on implementation of Basel 3.1 - link
Falling UK inflation will ease pressure for high pay awards, says thinktank - Guardian
UK small firms cut back on invstment ot protect profits - Bloomberg
Rishi Sunak faces tense UK parliamentary showdown over Rwanda asylum plan - Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+52.7% CCOR.B.SS (Concordia Maritime SEK9.62, +3.32) -- recommends shareholders to accept Stena Sessan SEK 9.80/sh cash offer
+27.8% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.07, +0.01) -- strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi based International Resources Holding (IRH)
+12.0% HMS.SS (HMS Networks SEK523.00, +56.00) -- acquires Red Lion Controls from Spectris for a cash consideration of $345M (~ SEK 3.6B)
+11.5% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK7.30, +0.75) -- partner IOVaxis Therapeutics files updated TG01 IND application in China
+7.8% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €38.88, +2.81) -- target price raised to €50 from €45 at Oddo
+7.4% SOLB.BB (Solvay €22.14, +1.52) -- transferred hold at Stifel; resumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; initiated neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
+6.5% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €93.60, +5.74) -- FY earnings
+5.5% FRP.LN (FRP Advisory Group £1.35, +0.07) -- H1 earnings
+3.1% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK557.20, +16.60) -- Citi upgrade
+3.1% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF275.90, +8.20) -- BofA upgrade
+2.5% SXS.LN (Spectris £36.03, +0.89) -- sale of Red Lion Controls to HMS Networks
+2.1% HNR1.GR (Hannover Re €225.10, +4.70) -- presents 2024 guidance in connection with Investor day
+1.9% VMUK.LN (Virgin Money UK £1.56, +0.03) -- Macquarie upgrade
+1.7% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK63.38, +1.06) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+1.7% IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas €14.12, +0.24) -- Bain Capital and Cinven interested in acquiring Minsait from Indra, valued at ~ €1.80B - El Confidencial, citing sources
Notable Decliners
-17.9% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK144.50, -31.60) -- CMD update
-10.7% RWS.LN (RWS Holdings £2.21, -0.26) -- FY earnings
UK's FCA writes to firms about the treatment of retained interest on customers' cash balances
-6.7% HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown £7.14, -0.51)
-5.1% ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc £1.72, -0.09)
-3.4% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £3.01, -0.11)
-5.1% BILL.SS (Billerud SEK100.05, -5.35) -- Danske Bank downgrade
-4.8% METSB.FH (Metsa Board €6.69, -0.34) -- Danske Bank downgrade
-4.1% HOLM.B.SS (Holmen SEK430.30, -18.50) -- Danske Bank downgrade
UK's Ofcom proposes ban on inflation-linked mid-contract price rises
-3.9% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.26, -0.05)
-2.5% TEF.SM (Telefonica €3.80, -0.10)
-3.4% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa SEK152.20, -5.30) -- Danske Bank downgrade
-2.8% HEAD.LN (Headlam Group £2.05, -0.06) -- trading update
-2.6% MXCT.LN (MaxCyte £3.75, -0.10) -- CEO transition and FY revenue guidance update
-2.5% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €137.60, -3.55) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-2.5% NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor NOK112.00, -2.90) -- CEO steps down
-2.2% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €11.80, -0.27) -- Danske Bank downgrade
-1.7% UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene €32.76, -0.58) -- Danske Bank downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: METRO (B4B.GR)
Southern Europe: Inditex (ITX.SM), OVS (OVS.IM)
UK: Cohort (CHRT.LN)
Trading Update: Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Graines Voltz (GRVO.FP)
Traffic: Fraport (FRA.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)
CMD/events: DFDS (DFDS.DC), Storebrand (STB.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Netherlands Nov CPI +1.6% y/y vs preliminary +1.6%
UK Nov Claimant Count Change +16.0K vs consensus +15.0K and prior revised +8.9K from +17.8K
Germany Dec ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator 12.8 vs consensus 8.8 and prior 9.8
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 24): ($2.55) or (3.58%) to $68.77
€-$ +0.0026 or +0.24% to 1.0790
£-$ (0.0003) or (0.02%) to 1.2554
€-£ +0.0020 to 0.8596
S&P 500 +0.13%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +1.22%
DAX: +20.60%
CAC: +16.53%
MIB: +28.08%
Stoxx 600: +11.26%
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