Dec 13 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start Thursday. Nikkei futures flat, while Hang Seng futures lower. ASX rallying in early trade. S&P 500 futures nudging higher afterhours. Australian and New Zealand yields seeing double-digit falls, mirroring Treasury bull steepening. US dollar nursing heavy losses with DXY hitting month-to-date low. Dollar weakness corresponded with big gains in gold and other metals. Bitcoin clawed back most of Monday's sell-off.
Fed takeaways leaning dovish with reactions highlighting Chair Powell opting not to push back against very dovish market rate outlook. Updated SEP showed policymakers projecting more rate cuts in 2024 than previews were looking for. Swaps now pricing in ~140 bp of rate cuts next year, still less than Fed's updated dot plot but more than ~125 bp that was being priced following Governor Waller's dovish remarks.
Central banks headline today's economic calendar. BOE and ECB both expected to leave interest rates unchanged while previews anticipate some pushback against rate cut pricing. Australian employment growth forecast to have slowed and jobless rate to have ticked higher. Japan core machinery orders projected to have contracted. Philippines central bank expected to hold rates steady. Earlier, New Zealand Q3 GDP unexpectedly shrunk.
China yuan loan growth undershot expectations, adding to signs of continued economic weakness in November after trade, manufacturing and inflation data also fell short of forecasts. Growth concerns compounded by disappointment at lack of stimulus indications from CEWC. However, China housing official on Wednesday signaled stronger policy efforts to prevent wholesale defaults by property developers.
Also making headlines, Japan PM Kishida survived no confidence motion as he foreshadowed cabinet reshuffle announcement today. Fed's dovish rate outlook increasing scrutiny on BOJ with Nikkei highlighting thoughts Governor Ueda may ditch NIRP before next April's wage talks. Fitch out with 'neutral' outlook on China, citing growth slowdown and property risks.
Pre-open Company News:
4043.JP -- Tokuyama, OCI Co. to form 50:50 polycrystalline silicon semi-processed product JV in Malaysia
002568.CH -- Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group launches CNY100-200M on-market share buyback at up to CNY39.10/share
CPF.TB -- Charoen Pokphand Foods Public upgraded to add from hold at CGS-CIMB
1972.HK -- Swire Properties initiated overweight at Industrial Securities (timing uncertain)
6201.JP -- Toyota Industries to post FY extraordinary gain of ¥219.3B after sale of DENSO Corp shares
China October domestic mobile phone shipments: 29.2M, +19.7% y/y
500550.IN -- Siemens Energy Holdco proposes to acquire 5.0% stake in Siemens India from Siemens Energy Holding
500400.IN -- Tata Power Co. enters green power delivery agreement with Force Motors Limited, Jaya Hind Industries Private Limited
66.HK -- MTR Corp. signs HK$6.22B engineering contract with China Communications Construction, Build King for Tuen Mun South Extension project
600219.CH -- Shandong Nanshan Aluminum launches CNY300-600M share buyback at up to CNY4.43/share to run for 12 months
OCGN -- Ocugen announces first patient dosed in phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of OCU410
F9D.SP -- Boustead Singapore announces level of acceptances of exit offer for Boustead Projects
SCC.TB -- The Siam Cement Public's tender offer for COTTO shares ends; purchases 975.5M shares or 16.4% stake
2096.HK -- Simcere Pharmaceutical Group announces inclusion of XIANNUOXIN in new national reimbursement drug list
267.HK -- CITIC Ltd chairman Zhu Hexin resigns due to other work commitments, effective immediately
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Core Machinery Orders ex-Electric Power Companies & Ships SA M/M; consensus (1.3%)
13:30 JST: Industrial Production SA M/M (Final); consensus +1%
Earnings:
Park24 Co. (4666.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:00 AEST: Consumer Inflation Expectation; consensus
11:30 AEST: Unemployment Rate; consensus 3.8%
11:30 AEST: Employment SA; consensus +2.5K
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 24): +$46.30 or +2.32% to $2043.60
WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$0.45 or +0.65% to $69.92
$-¥: (2.81) or (1.93%) to 142.6430
$-KRW: (21.70) or (1.65%) to 1292.0300
A$-$: +0.01 or +1.65% to 0.6667
$-INR: (0.12) or (0.14%) to 83.2758
$-CNY: (0.01) or (0.08%) to 7.1723
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