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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.25%, Hang Seng (0.89%), Shanghai Composite (1.15%) as of 03:10 ET

Dec 13 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Wednesday in another cautious day's trading. China benchmarks saw another down day on disappointment over the lack of stimulus announcements from the work conference meeting. South Korea and India also sharply lower, the latter led by IT stocks. Taiwan flat. Australia and Japan benchmarks were modestly higher. Southeast Asia largely lower. US futures higher, European markets opened slightly better. US dollar flat, Asia currencies generally weaker. Treasury yields lower at the long end, higher at the short. Crude blends extending overnight falls, iron ore leading industrial metals lower. Gold hovering just below $2K. Cryptocurrencies down again.

    • US equity markets brushed off higher-than-expected headline inflation overnight, which also led to a brief bond selloff and spike in the dollar. Fed Fund Futures still point to around 100 bps in rate cuts next year but some commentators said the Fed could yet indicate higher rates than the market is currently pricing; this could leave bonds vulnerable to another selloff and emerging market currencies again exposed to an elevated dollar. The confusing picture of 'Market versus Fed' led to a cautious day in Asia equity trading ahead of the Fed decision tonight with most of the region's currencies weakening to apply pressure on their respective equity benchmarks.

    • Greater China markets underperformed as they reacted to news from the China economic work conference with leaders merely pledging to maintain proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policies, and few signs of stronger stimulus. India markets also under pressure with IT stocks leading the decliners after industrial production surprised on the upside but headline inflation also rose above the RBI's acceptable band. In other macro developments, the BOJ Tankan showed manufacturer and non-manufacturer conditions improving by more than expected. South Korean unemployment rate rose by more than expected.

    • Activist investor Active Value Fund has revealed a plus-5% stake in Fuji Media Holdings (4676.JP). Infroneer Holdings (5076.JP) confirmed it had bought Japan Wind Development from Bain Capital for ¥203.1B. A consortium led by JIP has bought a 50% stake in Shinko Electric Industries (6967.JP). Foxconn (Hong Hai, 2317.TT) has won approval to invest at least $1B more in an India plant to make Apple products as it further expands outside of China.

  • Digest:

    • No major surprises from Central Economic Work Conference:

      • Xinhua reported highlights from the CEWC, though language on policy direction broadly reaffirmed the current trajectory. Much of the discussion focused on measures to address economic and financial risks, while asserting the recovery trend remains intact. Acknowledged ongoing difficulties including insufficient demand and external uncertainties. Urged for more policies to help stabilize expectations, growth and employment. Recommended stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments of macro policies and continuation of proactive fiscal policy along with prudent monetary policy. Members called for "reasonably" expanding scope of LGSB as capital funds, implementing structural tax cuts, support for scientific and tech innovation, and development of manufacturing sector. Brief mention of monetary policy stressed efforts to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity while keeping the scale of social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets for economic growth and price levels. Consumption stimulus remains a priority including EVs and electronics. Called for efforts to defuse risks in the property sector and resolution of local government debt, though details were light.

    • BOJ Tankan headlines beat:

      • Headline large manufacturer business conditions DI was 12 in December, above consensus 10 and follows 9 in September. Marks the third straight rise and the highest reading since March 2022. Metals and auto sectors saw the biggest improvements. Large nonmanufacturer DI was 30 -- highest since November 1991 -- also better than consensus and September level of 27. Increase was led by real estate and communications, while consumer services and accommodation/dining extended improvements. Small enterprise DIs were also better. Domestic supply/demand conditions and inventories broadly steady for large firms. Output and input prices eased further, while inflation expectations were mostly steady. Large firm FY23 capex growth projections remained resilient at 13.5%, little changed from 13.6% in September and better than consensus 12.4%, defying usual downgrades at this time of year. All-enterprise profits revised up with margins, seen previously as a signal of easing cost pressures. Aggregate labor shortages tightened further.

    • PBOC seen adding to net MLF injections Friday:

      • Narrow Bloomberg poll found PBOC expected to inject net CNY325B ($45.3B) in Friday's MLF operation, following CNY600B added last month. Broader consensus looks for MLF rate to remain unchanged at 2.5%, though story noted several forecasters tipping a 10 bp cut. Cited views that dollar strength was the main obstacle against rate cuts, though PBOC thought to be more comfortable with current levels, opening the door for resumption of rate relief. Others argued authorities will remain conservative to ensure yuan strength is safeguarded. On liquidity, demand remains elevated to offset drain from prior fiscal expansion -- CNY1T sovereign bonds to be issued in Nov/Dec -- as well as seasonal build-up of cash among financial institutions in preparation for year-end regulatory checks. Also suggested PBOC may already be eyeing peak funding season ahead of the next Chinese New Year in mid-February. Piece continued to mention some expectations of an RRR cut in coming months, though views were mixed on whether a move would come by year-end.

    • Japan PM Kishida to remove top spokesman Matsuno as soon as Thursday:

      • Nikkei cited senior LDP officials signaling Prime Minister Kishida is preparing to replace Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and three other ministers early as Thursday over the political fundraising scandal. This would be the first of two rounds of changes to the cabinet and party leadership. One proposal would see the departure of Matsuno and three ministers from the LDP faction at the center of the scandal -- METI minister Nishimura, internal affairs minister Suzuki, and agriculture minister Miyashita. Article distinguished the measures from a full cabinet reshuffle where all ministers simultaneously resign. With other implicated officials working on the FY24 budget proposal (including LDP policy chief Hagiuda), Kishida will make a decision after the bill is approved around 22-Dec. Latest update indicated Hagiuda will resign today (Nikkei). Attention turns to Kishida's press conference today to close the parliament session. Story noted another proposal to remove all cabinet and top party officials belonging to the Abe faction, though was put into question given allegations extend to the smaller Nikai faction and yesterday's reports that Kishida's group may have underreported income from ticket sales for party fundraisers.

    • China's proposed changes in PE/VC investing face backlash:

      • Reuters discussed CSRC's draft rules to significantly raise threshold for investing in PE and VC funds bear repercussions as industry players said changes could wipe out small funds and deny financing to startups. Proposed changes would require a qualified investor in PE and VC funds to set aside at least CNY3M ($419K), tripling existing threshold in an effort to protect small investors. For funds that invest bulk of assets in a particular company or project, minimum for individual investors raised to CNY10M, which sources said is "devastating" to single-project funds currently favored by individuals. Added new rules likely to wipe out many small players, which are already suffering from weak economy. Yicai noted number of PE and VC managers in China has fallen by over 10%, or 1,600, in Jan.-Sep. due to tightened regulations and tough fund-raising environment. Market insiders noted at least another 1,000 private fund management firms would cease operation if new rules took effect, which would run counter to authorities' pledge to support tech startups.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +7.0% 4676.JP (Fuji Media Holdings): activist investor Nippon Active Value Fund discloses 5.04% stake

      • +2.3% 6967.JP (Shinko Electric Industries): agrees to sell 50.0% stake in Shinko Electric Industries to JIP-led consortium for ¥285.1B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -30.4% 2171.HK (CARsgen Therapeutics Holdings): FDA places CT053, CT041 and CT071 on clinical hold due to CMC concerns

      • -11.3% 5076.JP (INFRONEER Holdings): confirms acquisition of Japan Wind Development from Bain Capital for ¥203.1B

      • -10.9% 2013.HK (Weimob): China launches one-month campaign to clean up short-video content

      • -5.0% 8473.JP (SBI Holdings): Japan's SESC reportedly to recommend FSA punish SBI Securities for IPO manipulation

      • -1.7% 035720.KS (Kakao): to appoint Chung Shin-ah, CEO of Kakao Ventures, as sole CEO

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan December

        • BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions index 12 vs consensus 10 and 9 in September

          • March large manufacturers business conditions forecast 8

          • December large non-manufacturers business conditions index 30 vs consensus 27 and 27 in September

          • March large non-manufacturers business conditions forecast 24

      • South Korea November

        • Unemployment rate 2.8% vs FactSet consensus 2.6% and 2.5% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 82.65 or +0.25% to 32926.35

      • Hang Seng: (145.75) or (0.89%) to 16228.75

      • Shanghai Composite: (34.68) or (1.15%) to 2968.76

      • Shenzhen Composite: (22.67) or (1.21%) to 1845.43

      • ASX200: 22.50 or +0.31% to 7257.80

      • KOSPI: (24.61) or (0.97%) to 2510.66

      • SENSEX: (243.55) or (0.35%) to 69307.48

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.35 or +0.24% to 145.7960

      • $-KRW: +5.15 or +0.39% to 1318.8800

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.08%) to 0.6554

      • $-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 83.3957

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.10% to 7.1849

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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