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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asia Weekly Recap: Nikkei +4.4%, Hang Seng +3.7%, CSI 300 -0.1%

Dec 15 ,2023

  • Overview:

    • Asia equity markets higher over the week but were volatile at times with traders juggling the health of China's economy and the Fed's move on rates. The MSCI Asia Pac-ex Japan index gained almost 3% w/w with risk sentiment improving as the week wore on after the US Fed signaled as many as three rate cuts next year. This sent bond yields lower almost everywhere including Asia, taking the US dollar down and sending Asia currencies higher. This gave the region's equity markets the impetus to rally with the cyclical Australia and growth-orientated India markets notably higher. Chinese economic data tilted to the downside with November's retail sales missing forecasts, adding to a deflationary headline CPI, and, while industrial output data was encouraging, construction and property investment was weakened. House prices in November also fell again on a m/m basis. To support the economy, the PBOC injected a record amount of cash into the financial system Friday, helping property stocks to surge and send the Hang Seng significantly higher. Elsewhere, central banks in the region remained cautious despite the Fed's dovish moves; the Bank of Korea said it would keep its restrictive stance amid a higher inflation trajectory than previously forecast, the Philippines central bank announced a 'hawkish hold', to add to hawkish tones from the RBI governor recently who said monetary policy must remain 'actively disinflationary'.

  • Asia stocks, bond and currencies all rally as risk appetite improves:

    • Thursday's dovish pivot by the Fed sparked a risk-on rally across bond, currency and equity markets. The exception was Japan where a strengthening yen dented exporters and sent the Nikkei and Topix down for a time although both recorded solid gains over the week. Every major country bourse outside mainland China gained with Australia's ASX outperforming while New Zealand underperformed on weak GDP data. There were solid gains for tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan, and India's benchmarks reached record highs on several days. Southeast Asia markets underperformed with Thailand's Set hitting a three-year low early on. Sovereign bond yields fell across the region post the Fed's move, ranging from a 0.3% w/w fall in New Zealand 10Y yields to just 0.07% in JGB 10Ys. China's 10Y sovereign yield hit a month-long low of 2.64%. Regional currencies also spiked in the wake of the Fed. The yen strengthened 2.1%, the AUD around 2.0% and the won 1.7%. There was also significant strengthening in the baht and Singapore dollar. The Dollar DXY index meanwhile lost around 2.0%.

  • Indian equities trade at record highs:

    • India's benchmark Sensex index rose above 70k level and the Nifty 50 crossed 21k with both indices setting record highs on successive days over the week. Strategists attributed the rally to inflows from foreign institutional investors, strong domestic institutional and retail buyers, adding the rally may continue despite high valuations. The exchanges are also seeing an IPO market boom backed by strong economic fundamentals which last week saw GDP forecasts raised, and which this week included a surge in industrial production for November. Stocks took another leg higher on Thursday post the Fed's dovish comments, ending the week at yet more record highs.

  • Chinese consumer prices sink further to fuel deflation concerns while retail sales miss estimates:

    • Chinese consumer inflation fell at its steepest rate in three years in November with headline CPI falling 0.5% y/y including an almost 32% y/y decline in pork prices as the glut in hog supply continued. Core inflation remained steady at 0.6% y/y. Producer prices fell for the 14th consecutive month, this time by 3.0% and worse than expectations. The slump in consumer prices was also seen in November retail sales data which showed a 10.1% y/y growth (versus a low base in 2022) but missing expectations of a 12.5% rise. YTD retail sales data also missed forecasts, rising 7.2% versus forecasts of 7.4%.

  • China's November activity data continues to show uncertain recovery in China:

    • With CPI and retail sales disappointing, industrial activity surprised on the upside, expanding 6.6% in November y/y ahead of a forecasted 5.6% and October's 4.1%. Fixed asset investment came in a little short at 2.9% growth versus 3.0% while property investment fell 9.4% and construction starts contracted 21.2%. House prices also showed signs of deflation, contracting 0.3% m/m in November. The China National Bureau of Statistics brushed off the data set, insisting FY development targets would be met and the country would not see deflation.

  • PBOC injects record $112B of cash into financial system:

    • China's central bank injected the most cash ever via one-year policy loans on Friday, offering commercial lenders a total of CNY 800B ($112B) through its medium-term lending facility, more than twice what analysts had forecast. The injection signaled a strong intention from Beijing to keep its monetary policy lose amid a struggling economy while several economists noted the liquidity injection probably meant a reduction in the RRR rates was off the table for the near term. The interest rates on the loans was kept steady at 2.5% while economists also said the amount will likely be enough to cover additional bond supply as well as loan extensions.

  • Economics and central banks:

    • Japan business mood hit a four-year high in Q4 and the highest reading in two years; Tankan survey beat expectations notably in larger manufacturers; Nov prelim manufacturing PMI shrank but services grew. China Nov headline CPI fell 0.5% y/y on fall in food prices; core steady at 0.6%, PPI fell 3.0%, more than expected; new loans rose m/m from Oct but were below estimates; Nov retail sales slightly missed, industrial production slightly better. Hong Kong Monetary Authority held rates steady following Fed's hold. Australia Nov business mood declined and consumer sentiment remained pessimistic although was better than Oct; unemployment hit its highest in 18 months. New Zealand Q3 GDP unexpectedly fell 0.6% y/y. South Korea Nov unemployment crept higher to 2.8% and was above expectations. Malaysia industrial output bounced back by more than expected but retail sales growth fell to an almost two-year low. Indonesia Nov trade surplus narrowed as oil imports rose. Philippines central bank kept rates on hold at 6.5% but gave a hawkish-leaning commentary. India Nov CPI rose to 5.5% from 4.9% but was better than forecast; industrial production surged y/y.

  • Corporate Developments:

    • A consortium led by Japan Investment Corp emerged as the likely favorite for Fujitsu's (6702.JP) controlling stake in Shinko Electric Industries (6967.JP). JD.com (9618.HK) CEO Liu admitted in a company intranet post he has not managed the company well. Li Ning (2331.HK) said it would buy a commercial building in Hong Kong from Henderson Land (12.HK) for a new headquarters; announced a share buyback plan worth up to HK3B. A Country Garden (2007.HK) unit agreed to sell its 1.8% stake in a Chinese mall for CNY3.1B ($428.0M); stock exchange filing showed company has remitted funds to repay yuan bond. ByteDance-owned TikTok is to invest $1.5B into a GoTo (GOTO.IJ) unit to rescue its shopping business in Indonesia. Foxconn (Hong Hai, 2317.TT) won approval to invest at least $1B more in an India plant to make Apple products as it further expands outside of China. Shares in Dr Reddy's Laboratories (500124.IN) fell sharply after the US FDA issued three "observations" on quality control, faulty equipment, and data integrity.

  • Country Equity Performance:

    • Equity markets: MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan, +2.9%; Japan, Nikkei +4.4%, Topix +2.6%; Greater China: CSI 300, -0.1%, Shenzhen, -0.3%, Hang Seng, +3.7%; Australia ASX 200, +5.4%; New Zealand NZX50, +1.4%; South Korea Kospi, +2.9%; Taiwan Taiex, +2.1%; Singapore STI, +1.2%; Malaysia KLCI, +1.3%; Thailand SET -0.7%; Indonesia JSX, +0.7%, Philippines PSI 2.9%; India Sensex, +1.1%.

    • In USD as of 5.15pm HK/SG time 15 December 2023

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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