Dec 15 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed narrowly mixed with pan-European indices failing to sustain earlier gains, ending around session lows. Portugal (1.1%), FTSE 100 (1.0%), Spain (0.7%) led underperformers whilst Sweden +0.8%, Italy +0.6%, Netherlands and France both +0.4% led the outperformers.
Among central banks updates, ECB and BoE pushed back against market rate cut expectations on Thursday, but only had limited impact as Fed policy decision continues to influence. FT cited unnamed ECB official, who said Fed Chair Powell's remarks surprised ECB policymakers and might make it more difficult to fight inflation due to loosening in financial conditions.
In macroeconomic updates today, focus was on flash manufacturing and services PMIs for December, with most numbers weaker than consensus in both readings. UK flash Services PMI stronger than expected at 52.7 vs consensus of 51.0 but manufacturing fell behind expectations. Still in the UK, consumer confidence raised to 3-month high. UK's Halifax said it expects house prices to fall between 2% and 4% next year despite more upbeat picture in recent months (Evening Standard).
In corporate news, H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) posted Q4 sales SEK 62.63B vs FactSet SEK62.91B. Company also reported net sales in the period 1-Sep-23 to 30-Nov-23 flat compared with the corresponding quarter last year and amounted to SEK 62.63B. Still in the Nordics, Sectra (SECT.B.SS) traded notable higher following its Q2 earnings update including Q2 net income SEK150.6M vs FactSet SEK90M. Millicom International Cellular (TIGO.SS) was also higher as it raised its target for cumulative equity free cash flow (EFCF) for 2022-2024 period to "around $600M" vs prior guidance "at least $500M". Volkswagen (VOW.GR) reported Nov worldwide deliveries +22.6% y/y. Also in Germany, Munich Re (MUV2.GR) announced its FY24 financial targets. The firm expects FY24 net income of ~ €5.0B vs FactSet €4.98B.
On M&A front, Campari (CPR.IM) has entered into exclusive negotiations with Beam Suntory to acquire Courvoisier, in deal valued at enterprise value of $1.32B. Unilever (ULVR.LN) is reportedly in advanced talks to sell Elida Beauty to Yellow Wood Partners. Also in the UK, Ascential shares in focus as Betaville article mentions Providence Equity Partners looking to be buying Events division for between £500M and £700M. Elsewhere, Airbus is reportedly in advanced talks with Atos to acquire BDS activities, according to Le Figaro.
The week ahead sees ECB update on the status of capital requirements (SREP) for banks, Norway PM's Støre half-yearly summary press conf, Germany Dec Ifo survey, UK Nov inflation data, Switzerland Nov trade balance as well as earnings from Aurubis (NDA.GR), Petrofac (PFC.LN) and thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR)
Over the weekend UK PM speaks Sat (16th) at 14:00CET at Atreju festival (through Sun), organised by Italian PM Meloni's Brother of Italy party. Meloni due to speak at the event at 12noonCET on Sun, the same day as the Serbian National Assembly election is held. Also on Sat, Chancellor Scholz speaks at event organised by Central Council of Jews
EU parliament sees committee delegations conducting visits linked to topics falling under their responsibility. These include Security and defence/India (Sun-Thu) and EU-Africa/Zambia and Malawi (Sun-Thu). No parliamentary meetings are scheduled in Brussels.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Basic Resources +1.23%, Technology +1.13%, Construct & Mtls +0.76%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.70%, Autos & Parts +0.65%, Travel & Leisure +0.42%, Insurance +0.27%,
Underperformers
Real Estate(0.91%), Telecom (0.80%), Oil & Gas (0.73%), Utilities (0.51%), Health Care (0.50%), Media (0.29%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.29%), Banks (0.29%), Retail (0.20%), Financial Svcs (0.02%), Chemicals (0.02%), Food & Beverage (0.01%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
EU to extend trade truce with US until after presidential election - FT
EU like a condominium, incapable of taking decisions says Giorgetti - Ansa
EU busts the Orban myth with historic decision on Ukraine accession - Politico
EU troublemaker Orban victorious at home, isolated in Brussels - Reuters
Meloni, Wilders and Europe's ascendant far right - Bloomberg
ECB
UK
Norway
Debt Management strategy and borrowing programme for 2024, as well as Q1 - Strategy 2024; Q1 info report
Finland
To close border crossing points at the land border between Finland and Russia up to 14-Jan-24 - release
Sweden
Sweden to condition foreign aid on expulsion cooperation - euractiv
Austria
Austria blocks Russian sanctions over Raiffeisen blacklisting - Reuters
Greece
Uneven prices in local market - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.2% EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices NOK2.12, +0.28) -- Electromagnetic Geoservices holder Perestroika AS raises stake to ~30% - Filing
+9.3% WINE.LN (Naked Wines £0.47, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+8.3% SECT.B.SS (Sectra SEK159.26, +12.24) -- Q2 earnings
+7.1% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.02, -0.00) -- enters definitive agreement for 64% Mokopane Sale
+7.0% PTSB.ID (Permanent TSB Group Holdings €1.68, +0.11) -- Permanent TSB Group Holdings announces 2023 SREP decision advises that the company is no longer prohibited from paying out dividends to shareholders
+5.0% MBB.GR (MBB €90.70, +4.30) -- initiated outperform at Oddo
+4.7% DWS.GR (DWS Group €34.08, +1.52) -- target increased at JPMorgan
+4.3% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK281.10, +11.50) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+4.2% SGG.SS (Sensys Gatso Group SEK68.33, +2.76) -- order
+3.5% ODL.NO (Odfjell Drilling NOK37.00, +1.25) -- Aker BP has extended Deepsea Nordkapp contract to end 2026
+3.4% APAM.NA (Aperam €33.33, +1.11) -- Nexa Resources advances in acquisition of 10K tons of bio-oil from company
+3.1% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €174.30, +5.30) -- edefines the Group's market segments
+2.8% STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics €46.89, +1.29) -- UBS upgrade
+2.7% TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular SEK175.00, +4.65) -- raises targets
+2.4% PRTC.LN (PureTech Health £1.48, +0.03) -- study update
+1.2% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK457.40, +5.40) -- contract
+1.1% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK66.52, +0.70) -- resumed neutral at Citi
+1.0% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF29.70, +0.30) -- contract
Notable Decliners
-33.0% ALFOC.FP (Focus Entertainment €13.24, -6.52) -- H1 earnings
-10.3% XLM.LN (XLMedia £0.07, -0.01) -- pre-close trading update
-7.8% SY1.GR (Symrise €97.82, -8.28) -- prelim FY earnings
-6.6% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.06, -0.00) -- to conduct conditional placement at 5.5p/share to raise £10M
-6.3% PRIC.B.SS (Pricer SEK7.03, -0.47) -- nitiates cost-savings program
-2.9% GSK.LN (GSK Plc £14.20, -0.42) -- EU's CHMP has confirmed its initial recommendation to not renew the conditional marketing authorisation for Blenrep
-2.8% CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano €10.02, -0.29) -- enteres into exclusive negotiations with Beam Suntory to acquire Courvoisier, in deal valued at enterprise value of $1.32B
-1.9% VIV.FP (Vivendi €9.66, -0.19) -- Vivendi evaluating potential options for 24% stake in Telecom Italia - Bloomberg
-0.9% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK238.70, -2.10) -- UBS downgrade
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: thyssenkrupp nucera (NCH2.GR), CECONOMY (CEC.GR), All for One Group (A1OS.GR)
Data:
Economics:
Flash Manufacturing PMI Dec
Eurozone 44.2 vs consensus 44.6 and prior 44.2
Germany 43.1 vs consensus 43.2 and prior 42.6
France 42.0 vs consensus 43.3 and prior 42
UK 46.4 vs consensus 47.5 and prior 47.2
Flash Services PMI Dec
Eurozone 48.1 vs consensus 49.0 and prior 48.7
Germany 48.4 vs consensus 49.8 and prior 49.5
France 44.3 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 45.4
UK 52.7 vs consensus 51.0 and prior 50.9
Norway Nov Trade Balance NOK 80.1B vs consensus NOK72.0B and prior NOK86.9B
Sweden Nov Unemployment Rate 7.1% vs consensus 6.9% and prior 7.4%
France Nov CPI +3.5% y/y vs preliminary +3.4%; (0.2%) m/m vs preliminary (0.2%)
Italy
Nov CPI +0.7% y/y vs preliminary +0.8%; (0.5%) m/m vs preliminary (0.4%)
Oct Trade Balance €4.70B vs consensus €3.5B and prior revised €2.39B from €2.35B
Markets:
€-$ (0.0080) or (0.73%) to 1.0917
£-$ (0.0065) or (0.51%) to 1.2701
€-£ (0.0018) to 0.8596
S&P 500 +0.09%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +1.65%
DAX: +20.46%
CAC: +17.49%
MIB: +28.21% Stoxx 600: +12.22%
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