Dec 15 ,2023
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open flat to marginally higher, following Thursday's gains. Asian equities mostly higher Friday. China activity data came in mixed. Fed-driven momentum continues with futures pricing in almost 150 bp of rate cuts in 2024. Dovish rate outlook attributed for multi-asset rally this week encompassing stocks, bonds, high yield debt, commodities and crypto. However, ECB and BOE not yet joining the Fed in changing stance toward rate cuts.
UK GfK Dec consumer confidence already on the tape, coming in at (22) vs consensus (22) and prior (24). Other macro data releases include Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Dec flash manufacturing/services PMIs, France Nov final CPI, Italy Nov final CPI, Oct trade balance, Sweden Nov unemployment rate, Norway Nov trade balance, Eurozone Oct trade balance
Also on today's agenda: Bundesbank releases at 8:30CET its semi-annual forecasts. Also BOE's Ramsden speech at 10:00GMT at Deloitte Academy on the Bank's resolution regime. Bank of Portugal's latest Economic Bulletin. Slovenia central bank conf, panel includes several central bank governors from Eastern Europe and Governor of the Central Bank of Malta, Scicluna. Bank of Russia interest rate decision.
In corporate highlights: Symrise (SY1.GR) last night after market close issued a profit warning. Campari (CPR.IM) has entered into exclusive negotiations with Beam Suntory to acquire Courvoisier, in deal valued at enterprise value of $1.32B. Unilever (ULVR.LN) is reportedly in advanced talks to sell Elida Beauty to Yellow Wood Partners. H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS) due to report Q4 sales with consensus looking for SEK62.91B, Growth, local FX (3.5%). Also scheduled today are Volkswagen Group (VOW.GR) monthly deliveries.
Politics/Macro/World News
Central Banks:
ECB and BoE reluctant to join Fed in pivoting towards rate cuts (Bloomberg)
Fed pivot piles pressure on Europe's central banks to shift stance (FT)
ECB largely united on seeing rate cuts later than market bets (Bloomberg)
Markets expect UK interest rates to fall (London Times)
Too early to talk about near-term rate cuts says ECB's Müller (Äripäeva)
Geopolitics
Germany
Germany lifts spending freeze after budget deal clinched, document shows (Reuters)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI reports Nov Autoroutes and Airport passenger traffic
SY1.GR (Symrise) -- reports preliminary FY revenue ~€4.7B vs FactSet €4.76B [16 est, €4.68-4.85B]; adj. EBITDA margin 19.0-19.5% vs guidance ~20%
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Nov sales from continuing operations €998.2M, (4.3%) in comparable terms
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- reports November ETP market data
STM.GR (Stabilus) -- SE confirms prelim FY23 figures and guidance as per 10-Nov update; keeps divi unchanged at €1.75/share
XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- XVIVO announces SEK 17M write-down related to PrimECC
IMPN.SW (Implenia) -- awarded building construction contracts in Switzerland and Germany worth a total of over CHF 220M
M&A
UL (Unilever) -- Unilever in advanced talks to sell Elida Beauty to Yellow Wood Partners -- Reuters
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia)
Vivendi evaluating potential options for 24% stake in Telecom Italia - Bloomberg
board extends deadline for submitting binding offer for Sparkle to the end of January 2024
CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano) -- Campari has entered into exclusive negotiations with Beam Suntory to acquire Courvoisier, in deal valued at enterprise value of $1.32B
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- and Lone Star in the final stage to sell Servihabitat - El Confidencial, citing sources
+HTR.LN (Heathrow Airport Holdings) -- Saudi Arabia reportedly considering increasing its 10% stake in Heathrow Airport Holdings acquired last month, to a majority stake - Sunday Times
+PENSION.LN (Pension Insurance Corp.) -- Apollo, Carlyle, and KKR are reportedly evaluating separate bids for Pension Insurance Corp. ahead of deadline this week - FT
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- and JOJ Media House sign an agreement to merge their OOH activities in Slovakia
STJ.LN (St. James's Place) -- planning to raise as much as £1B by 2030 to buy businesses of retiring partners - FT
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- has signed an agreement to acquire Localpack S.A in Colombia. Terms were not disclosed
MCPHY.FP (McPhy Energy) -- McPhy enters into exclusive negotiations with Atawey with a view to the sale of its hydrogen recharging station activity
ALQGC.FP (Quantum Genomics) -- enters into exclusive negotiations for a merger with ExactCure (private)
3331.HK (Vinda International Holdings) -- Isola Castle launches takeover offer to acquire Vinda International Holdings at HK$23.5/share
CRI.FP (Chargeurs) -- informed of intention of companies controlled by Chairman and CEO Michaël Fribourg to file voluntary public tender offer at €12 per share
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- EMA gives positive opinion to Fexinidazole Winthrop as first oral treatment of acute form of sleeping sickness (rhodesiense) found in East and Southern Africa
KRTX (Karuna Therapeutics) -- reports data from phase 3 EMERGENT-2 trial evaluating KarXT in schizophrenia published in The Lancet
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- announces full results from 16-HMedIdeS-12 Phase 2 trial in patients with AMR following kidney transplantation
MOVE.SW (Medacta Group) -- notes new clinical study highlighting NextAR Spine
SANION.SS (Saniona) -- board resolves to carry out rights issue of units of approximately SEK 140M
Other
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- Volkswagen's Cariad unit to cut 20% of internal development costs annually until 2028 in attempt to avoid forced layoffs - Bloomberg
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- concludes Strategic review of the Consumer Tissue Private Label Europe business concluded
GET.FP (Getlink) -- to Enable the Doubling of Direct High Speed Rail Services From the UK Over the Next 10 Years via the Channel Tunnel
SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- announces intention to implement share buyback program
TRN.LN (Trainline) -- notes withdrawal of GBR app and website proposals
APAM.NA (Aperam) -- Nexa Resources advances in acquisition of 10K tons of bio-oil from Aperam BioEnergia
RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International) -- Austria seeking to have Raiffeisen Bank International removed from Ukrainian blacklist in return for approving new EU sanctions on Russia - Reuters
Key rating changes
Upgrades
STMPA.FP (STMicroelectronics) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
PCO.PW (Pepco Group) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Downgrades
ALC.SW (Alcon AG) -- to hold from buy at Nephron Research (timing uncertain)
BAMI.IM (Banco BPM) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
SAVE.SS (Nordnet) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
Initiations
INCH.LN (Inchcape) -- outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Data
Nikkei +0.87% to 32970.55
Hang Seng +2.04% to 16737.12
Shanghai Composite (0.55%) to 2942.78
S&P futures +4.5 vs prior close of 4774.0
€-$ (0.0010) or (0.09%) to 1.0987
$-¥ +0.09 or +0.06% to 141.94
€-¥ (0.04) or (0.03%) to 155.94
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