Dec 20 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed. Telecom, Real Estate and Retai led outperformers. Technology, Basic Resources and Autos lagged. FTSE 100 outperformed on positive UK inflation data. Follows firmer close for European markets on Tuesday.
Big drop in UK inflation with headline at two-year low at 3.9%. The UK interest rate market has ramped up rate cut bets with interest rate swaps pricing in more than 50% chance of a BoE cut by March and ~140 bps worth of cuts in 2024 versus ~115 bps prior to the data. First rate cut is fully priced by May 2024. German Gfk consumer confidence improved from a low base. PPI weaker than forecast.
Light on the corporate front, HORNBACH Holding & Co. (HBH.GR) reported Q3 earnings including Q3 EPS €1.76 ahead of year-ago €1.71. Company expects FY adj. EBIT at middle to lower end of prior guidance. Still in Germany, Aurubis (NDA.GR) is also out with Q4 numbers along with a FY dividend per share of €1.40 and guides FY24 operating EBT between €380-480M. Out of the Nordics, Rusta (RUSTA.SS) reported Q2 EPS SEK0.4 vs FactSet SEK0.25 and said it remains optimistic about the future and to deliver on their financial targets. Petrofac (PFC.LN) said to expect Group revenue of ~$2.5B, in line with guidance, in its pre-close trading update for the year ending 31-Dec-23; PureTech Health (PRTC.LN) provided year-end update and outlook for 2024: estimated consolidated cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at year end of ~$320M extends operational runway guidance into 2027. Anglo American (AAL.LN) announced rough diamond sales value for De Beers' tenth sales cycle of 2023, amounting to provisional $130M vs year-ago $417M
On the M&A news flow, Spain will acquire 10% stake in Telefonica (TEF.SM) through its investment vehicle Sepi. Also, Swiss Steel Holding's (STLN.SW) subsidiary Ascometal France Holding enters into exclusive negotiations with Acciaierie Venete for the sale of several production sites in France.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +1.13%, Real Estate +1.07%, Retail +0.69%, Energy+0.65%, Travel & Leisure +0.62%, Construct & Mtls +0.38%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.34%, Media +0.31%, Banks +0.22%, Consumer Products and Services +0.21%
Underperformers:
Technology (0.30%), Basic Resources (0.30%), Autos & Parts (0.22%), Utilities +0.01%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.09%, Health Care +0.10%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.16%, Insurance +0.18%, Chemicals +0.18%
Macro:
UK:
Germany:
German banker's diaries add to Scholz's political woes: FT
France:
Tougher French immigration bill passes, Macron's parliament majority wobbles: Reuters
EU set to clinch compromise deal on new debt and deficit rules: FT
Russia ramps up fuel exports, undermining part of OPEC+ pledge: Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+68.9% CE2.GR (Cropenergies €11.50, +4.69) -- Südzucker submits public delisting tender offer to acquire all shares not yet directly held for cash consideration of €11.50 per share
+42.4% PFC.LN (Petrofac £0.32, +0.09) -- Pre-close trading update
+40.0% GOMX.SS (GomSpace Group SEK3.36, +0.96) -- contract
+12.8% RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International €18.67, +2.12) -- to acquire 28.5M shares in STRABAG SE from MKAO Rasperia for €1.51B
+9.3% STR.AV (STRABAG SE €41.90, +3.55)
+12.8% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF75.60, +8.60) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+12.3% UTDI.GR (United Internet €22.86, +2.50) -- issues FY24 guidance
+4.0% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.11, -0.00) -- enters funded participation agreement to monetise its arbitration award relating to the Ombrina Mare oil field
+3.9% SEE.LN (Seeing Machines £0.05, -0.00) -- contract
+3.7% ITRK.LN (Intertek Group £42.49, +1.50) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+3.7% STLN.SW (Swiss Steel Holding CHF0.06, -0.00) -- subsidiary Ascometal France Holding enters into exclusive negotiations with Acciaierie Venete for the sale of several production sites in France
+3.2% TEF.SM (Telefonica €3.68, +0.11) -- Spanish Government approves through Sepi, the acquisition of a 10% in Telefónica -- Expansion
+2.8% SHG.LN (Shanta Gold £0.13, -0.00) -- connected individuals to take company private at 13.5p/share in cash
+2.8% SZU.GR (Suedzucker €14.25, +0.39) -- appoints new CFO
+2.7% INDV.LN (Indivior £11.78, +0.31) -- settles patent dispute with Actavis
+1.8% ALHGR.FP (Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies €8.40, +0.15) -- extends strategic partnership with the CSTB to develop its clay-based 0% clinker cements in particular
Notable Decliners
-25.6% ARGX.BB (argenx €308.80, -106.30) -- ADDRESS study fails to meet primary or secondary endpoints
-18.0% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.01, -0.00) -- board changes with immediate effect
-12.5% MCPHY.FP (McPhy Energy €3.27, -0.47) -- renews equity financing line with Vester Finance
-7.3% PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media €5.69, -0.45) -- increases investments in local content; expects stable earnings next year and impairment on programming assets in 2023
-6.4% GDWN.LN (Goodwin £55.20, -3.80) -- H1 earnings
-2.1% VER.AV (Verbund €84.50, -1.85) -- Barclays and Stifel downgrades
-1.8% ABLI.SS (Abliva SEK0.25, -0.00) -- study update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: EXEL Industries (EXE.FP), Carr's Group (CARR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Oct Construction Output (0.7%) y/y vs cons (1.0%) and prior revised +0.7% from (0.3%)
UK Nov
CPI +3.9% y/y vs cons +4.4% and prior +4.6%; (0.2%) m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior 0.0%
Core +5.1% y/y vs cons +5.6% and prior +5.7%
RPI +5.3% y/y vs cons +5.7% and prior +6.8%; (0.1%) m/m vs cons +0.2% and prior (0.2%)
Output PPI (0.2%) y/y vs cons (0.5%) and prior revised to (0.3%) from (0.6%); (0.1%) m/m vs cons (0.2%) and prior revised to +0.3% from +0.1%
Input PPI (2.6%) y/y vs cons (3.3%) and prior (2.6%); (0.3%) m/m vs cons (0.8%) and prior revised to +0.5% from +0.4%
Germany
Jan GfK Consumer Confidence (25.1) vs cons (27.0) and prior revised (27.6) from (27.8)
Nov PPI (7.9%) y/y vs cons (7.5%) and prior (11.0%); (0.5%) m/m vs cons (0.3%) and prior (0.1%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): +$1.17 or +1.58% to $75.11
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.14%) to 1.0966
£-$ (0.0058) or (0.46%) to 1.2673
€-£ +0.0029 to 0.8654
S&P 500 +0.05%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.54%
DAX: +20.18%
CAC: +17.14%
MIB: +28.07%
Stoxx 600: +12.49%
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