Dec 21 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower. Denmark and Portugal +0.6% and Austria +0.1% lead outperformers, whilst Sweden (0.7%), Belgium and The Netherland (0.5%) lead underperformers.
Nothing really new from a narrative perspective as things continue to slow into holidays and year-end. No clear spark for softer risk appetite this week, but overbought conditions have become a notable area of concern, with some analysts pointing to profit taking. No help from Wednesday's lower-yield backdrop driven by lower UK inflation and lower German PPI. Some incremental pushback from Fedspeak regarding last week's dovish pivot, though market has largely looked past these speakers. Markets still discounting over 150bps of easing from Fed, ECB and over 100bps for BoE in 2024.
Another quiet macro calendar in Europe; French business confidence better than forecast in the early release. Italian PPI weaker-than-expected. UK business confidence fell sharply in December. UK public sector borrowing a bit higher than expected.
In earning news, Exel Industries (EXE.FP) reported FY earnings and proposed a dividend of €1.57 per share vs year-ago €1.60 per share. In Denmark, Sydbank (SYDB.DC) raised its FY net income guidance to a range of DKK 3.20-3.35B vs prior guidance DKK 3.00-3.20B and FactSet DKK3.18B. In Norway, Faced with challenging alumina market conditions and Australian power price insecurity, Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) will report total impairment losses of NOK 5.9B in its Q4 results.
In the UK, Carr's Group (CARR.LN), Hummingbird Resources (HUM.LN) and Hargreaves Services (HSP.LN) are amongst other from the region to update investor with their latest numbers.
In M&A, BASF (BAS.GR), LetterOne and Harbour Energy (HBR.LN) signed a business combination agreement to transfer Wintershall Dea's E&P business consisting of its producing and development assets as well as exploration rights. In exchange, at closing, the shareholders of Wintershall Dea - BASF (72.7%) and LetterOne (27.3%) - will receive total cash consideration of $2.15B (BASF share: $1.56B) and new shares issued by Harbour equating to a total shareholding in the enlarged Harbour of 54.5% (BASF share: 39.6%). In Italy, According to the Repubblica, Eni (ENI.IM) has finalised an agreement with Swiss investment fund Energy Infrastructure for a 10% minority stake in Plenitude, with the offer valuing the company at ~ €10B, including debt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 18-Dec to 22-Dec attached) no earnings are scheduled, whilst t the macro-calendar releases will include France Dec consumer confidence, Nov PPI, Spain Q3 final GDP, Italy Dec business/consumer confidence, Netherlands Q3 final GDP, Finland Nov PPI, unemployment rate, Denmark Q3 final GDP, Nov retail sales, Sweden Nov PPI, retail sales, UK Q3 final GDP, Nov retail sales, Belgium Dec CPI, Ireland Nov PPI
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Health Care +0.16%, Ind Goods & Svcs (0.06%), Basic Resources (0.08%), Construct & Mtls (0.10%), Banks (0.12%), Utilities (0.18%), Technology (0.21%),
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (0.80%), Real Estate (0.73%), Consumer Products and Services (0.67%), Media (0.60%), Travel & Leisure (0.51%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.49%), Energy(0.48%), Insurance (0.36%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.32%), Chemicals (0.27%), Financial Svcs (0.25%), Telecom (0.22%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Russia/Ukraine
EU
EU, UK extend trade rules to avoid tariffs on electric vehicles - Reuters
UK
UK Signs Swiss Financial Services Deal on Market Access - Bloomberg
British households facing longest wait for rate cuts in the West - The Telegraph
Germany
Christmas fails to bring holiday cheer for German retailers - DW
Italy
Italian Lawmakers Reject Bailout Fund Proposal in Blow to EU - Bloomberg
Greece
Central bank warns on profit inflation - Ekathimerini
Realty shows signs of fatigue - Ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+22.5% DATA.LN (GlobalData £1.94, +0.36) -- group reorganisation and enters transformational investment agreement with Inflexion for a 40% stake in its Healthcare division
+22.3% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £3.14, +0.54) -- to acquire E&P business of Wintershall Dea
+17.9% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK130.20, +19.90) -- DA approval of TARPEYO in adults with primary IgAN at risk for disease progression
+8.9% EXE.FP (Exel Industries €51.00, +4.20) -- FY earnings
+8.4% CARR.LN (Carr's Group £1.03, +0.08) -- FY earnings
+7.7% CAPD.LN (Capital £0.83, +0.06) -- contract
+2.9% KOA.NO (Kongsberg Automotive NOK2.02, +0.06) -- contract
+2.3% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.69, +0.02) -- Swisscom exploring offer for Vodafone's Italian business early next year - Bloomberg
+2.2% ERG.IM (ERG €28.60, +0.62) -- to own 75% majority stake worth $270M in newly formed US holding company with Apex Clean Energy
Trading Lower:
-15.6% ESKN.LN (Esken Ltd. £0.01, -0.00) -- shares will begin trading in Standard Listing segment effective at 8.00GMR on 22-Dec
-15.3% BONAV.B.SS (Bonava SEK11.77, -2.14) -- resolves on a fully underwritten rights issue of approximately SEK 1.0B
-10.9% IBU.GR (IBU-tec advanced materials €16.82, -2.06) -- lowers FY outlook
-7.1% HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources £0.10, -0.01) -- operational and exploration update; also update on share placement
-3.9% SMS.LN (Smart Metering Systems £9.21, -0.37) -- Long-term shareholder PrimeStone and founders Alan Foy and Steve Timoney intend to vote against KKR offer
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
No earnings scheduled
Data:
Economics:
Nov Unemployment Rate
Netherlands 3.5% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.6%
Norway 3.7% vs consensus 3.6% and prior 3.6%
UK
Nov Public Sector Net Borrowing (£13.41B) vs consensus (£11.9B) and prior revised (£15.10B) from (£13.97B) (2:00ET)
Dec CBI Distributive Trades (32) vs consensus (12) and prior (11)
France Dec Business Survey 100 vs consensus 98 and prior 99
Italy Nov PPI (12.6%) y/y vs consensus (11.4%) and prior (9.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Feb 24): ($0.53) or (0.71%) to $73.69
€-$ +0.0045 or +0.41% to 1.0989
£-$ +0.0021 or +0.17% to 1.2660
€-£ +0.0021 to 0.8680
S&P 500 +0.78%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.26%
DAX: +19.85%
CAC: +16.96%
MIB: +27.71%
Stoxx 600: +12.25%
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