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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.09%, Hang Seng (1.69%), Shanghai Composite (0.13%) as of 03:10 ET

Dec 22 ,2023

Editor's note: Asia Market Wrap will not be published on 25-Dec and will return on 26-Dec.

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mixed Friday. Hong Kong sharply reversed early gains following announcement of new gaming restrictions that sent several internet stocks into steep dives; mainland markets also in the red by the close. Positive markets led by Singapore and India. Taiwan saw a modest gains; the Kospi, Nikkei and Australia's ASX were flat. US futures lower, Europe opened with modest losses. US dollar flat, Asia currencies weaker. Treasury yields higher across tenors, China sovereign yields lower on bank deposit rate cuts. Crude blends higher, precious and industrial metals also supported.

    • Asia stocks turned negative as the day wore on. Mid-morning, all main country bourses were positive before the announcement of new gaming restrictions in China pushed the Hang Seng sharply lower. There were some steep stock sell offs with Tencent down 14% and Netease more than 27% lower. The MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index turned a +0.3% return mid-morning into a -0.5% loss by the close in Hong Kong. Tech stocks had benefited early on from overnight gains on Wall Street, India continues to outperform in an across-the-board rally.

    • In Macro news, Japan core inflation slowed in-line with forecasts to their lowest since mid-2022 but services inflation rose to 30-year highs adding to signs influence of cost-push factors are waning. BOJ October minutes showed high uncertainties about stable achievement of inflation target and confirmed importance of next year's wage talks. Chinese banks cut deposit rates further to boost growth. China FDI fell to almost four-year low. The US Commerce Department has initiated a review into China legacy chip production, follows reports Thursday the White House was weighing hiking tariffs on Chinese EVs.

    • Honda Motor (7267.JP) announced more model recalls over problems with a fuel pump failure. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) is to build out its India operations amid the economic slowdown in China. Blackstone is to buy 80% of Sony Group's (6758.JP) payment unit for $280M. Tencent (700.HK) and Netease (9999.HK) stock both fell sharply after the NPPA released draft guidelines restricting online gaming and imposing limits on spending.

  • Digest:

    • China's new draft rules send online gaming companies tumbling:

      • Reuters reported China unveiled new draft rules to rein in spending and rewards for online video games that may signal another industry crackdown. National Press and Publication Administration said online games need to set spending limits and ban daily login rewards. Added rules that would ban large tips for rewards to players who livestream their games and prohibits online games from offering probability-based lucky draw features to minors. Games are also required to set limits on how much players can top up digital wallets and publishers required to store servers within China. Bloomberg added new restrictions surprised industry players and investors as Beijing appeared to have eased regulation for much of 2023 after two-year crackdown on big tech companies. Noted officials encouraged esports earlier this year as engine for post-Covid economy. Tencent (700.HK) down nearly 13% and NetEase (9999.HK) down 25% on Friday. Experts noted new rules will deal a blow to overwhelming majority of games in China.

    • China major banks cut deposit rates from Friday:

      • Some biggest state-owned Chinese lenders are cutting deposit rates from 22-Dec, third round of such cuts in 2023 (1st in June 2nd in September). ICBC (1398.HK), CCB (939.HK), Bank of China (3988.HK), Bank of Communications (3328.HK), ABC (1288.HK), CMB (3968.HK) and PSBC (1658.HK) have all announced deposit rates adjustment, trimming 10 bp for new time deposits less than 1y to 1.45%, 20 bp for 2y deposits to 1.65% and 25 bp for 3y and 5y deposits to 1.95% and 2.00% respectively (SecuritiesTimes). Bloomberg noted Chinese banks' NIMs under pressure and slumped to record low of 1.73% as of September, below 1.8% threshold seen as necessary to maintain reasonable profitability. Meanwhile bad loans have hit new high and some large state banks' revenue growth streak since 2017 may snap this year. Mainland press takeaways noted lowering deposit rates would reduce banks' liabilities and make room for possible lending rate cuts. Bigger cuts in longer-term deposit rates might also incentivize businesses and households to shift more funds for investment and consumption. Bloomberg added China's 30Y government bond yield hit lowest level since 2005 and 10Y yield edged down to lowest since September on Friday morning as deposit rate cuts seen as benefiting bonds.

    • BOJ board members remained unconvinced of stable inflation prospects in October MPM:

      • Minutes for the October MPM showed board members shared the view that likelihood of a virtuous wage/inflation cycle rising gradually but uncertainties remain high and stable achievement of price stability target was not yet envisaged with sufficient certainty at this point (Governor Ueda stressed this point at his latest press conference). One member suggested achievement was coming into sight and flagged H2 of FY23 would be important for making a declaration. Moreover, many members recognized importance of confirming wage hikes at next year's shunto talks, and whether raises would feed through to prices. Remarks on wage prospects were mixed between optimism and caution. They also debated spillover effects from wages to prices with no clear consensus. Accordingly, board members agreed on the need to patiently continue with YCC as a few members suggested there was still some distance to go before achieving stable inflation alongside positive wage/inflation cycle and continued to endorse easing with YCC. One member saw 10y JGB yield reaching 1% as "highly plausible" amid higher US yields. But another member was encouraged by early corporate signals on next year's wage hikes and proposed gradually dialing back easing.

    • Japan core inflation softens to lowest since July 2022, matching expectations:

      • Core CPI rose 2.5% y/y in November, matching consensus, following 2.9% in the previous month and marks the lowest since July 2022. Details were broadly consistent with preceding Tokyo figures. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation also eased to 3.8%, in line, after 4.0% in October. Energy drags widened on sharper declines in electricity and gas, while gasoline logged smaller increase. Elsewhere, heavily weighted non-fresh food continued to moderate (consistent with reports of dissipating price hikes), partially offset by acceleration in accommodation driven by resurging inbound tourism. By stage of demand, goods inflation slowed to 3.3% from 4.4%, the softest since November 2021. In contrast, closely watched service inflation continued to build on multi-decade highs at 2.3% from prior 2.1%. Overall CPI also eased to 2.8%, matching expectations, following prior month's 3.3% -- becoming more relevant after government projected 2.5% in FY24 as an underlying assumption in the general budget bill. Overall CPI also used as the deflator for real wages as measured by the Monthly Labor Survey.

    • US probes legacy semiconductor supply chains aimed at China:

      • In a statement, US Commerce Department announced it will launch a survey in January 2024 on the American semiconductor supply chain and national defense industrial base, aimed at identifying sourcing channels for current-gen and legacy chips. Statement explicitly mentioned information will help reduce national security risks posed by China. Commerce Secretary Raimondo said that "addressing non-market actions by foreign governments that threaten the US legacy chip supply chain is a matter of national security." Observed potential signs of concerning practices from China to expand domestic legacy chip production and make it harder for US companies to compete. Bloomberg cited an official indicating next steps could include tariffs or other trade tools without elaborating. Article recalled Raimondo has said that all tools would be considered, though ruled out export controls, which will only be applied to advanced chips. Source added the survey also seeks to encourage defense contractors to phase out Chinese chips out of their supply chains.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.9% 6550.TT (Polaris Group): Chairman notes to have secured 90% stake in Genovior for NT$2.0B

      • +5.9% 2412.JP (Benefit One): Dai-ichi Life raises tender offer price to ¥2,123/share from ¥1,800/share

      • +5.0% 2168.JP (Pasona Group): Parent company of Benefit One

      • +2.3% 9007.JP (Odakyu Electric Railway Co.): Disposes subsidiary UDS to Nomura Real Estate Holdings

      • +0.0% 1238.HK (Powerlong Real Estate Holdings): Enters into restructuring term sheet with ad hoc group (AHG) members

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -10.8% 4776.JP (Cybozu): Provides guidance

      • -6.1% 6098.HK (Country Garden Services Holdings): CICC note

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan November

        • Nationwide core CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and +2.9% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.8% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and +4.0% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +2.8% y/y vs consensus +2.8% and +3.3% in prior month

      • Australia November

        • Private sector credit +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% October

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 28.58 or +0.09% to 33169.05

      • Hang Seng: (280.72) or (1.69%) to 16340.41

      • Shanghai Composite: (3.94) or (0.13%) to 2914.78

      • Shenzhen Composite: (15.86) or (0.88%) to 1785.64

      • ASX200: (2.50) or (0.03%) to 7501.60

      • KOSPI: (0.51) or (0.02%) to 2599.51

      • SENSEX: 145.57 or +0.21% to 71010.67

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.21 or +0.15% to 142.3270

      • $-KRW: +3.80 or +0.29% to 1299.6900

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.25%) to 0.6785

      • $-INR: (0.07) or (0.08%) to 83.2012

      • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.02% to 7.1411

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