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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.13%, Hang Seng +1.74%, Shanghai Composite +0.54% as of 03:10 ET

Dec 27 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished higher Wednesday. The region was led higher by Hong Kong that neared a 2% gain as its gaming and internet stocks recovered; mainland stocks were also higher. More gains for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Australia's ASX closed at 20-month highs (and its 10Y bond yield fell to four-month low) on its first day back from the break. Southeast Asia was mostly higher, India's Sensex and Nifty 50 at fresh record highs. US futures edging higher, Europe marginally higher in early trades. US dollar little changed, yen weaker. Treasury yields mixed. Crude slightly lower but Brent futures maintaining $80/bl. Precious metals higher, iron ore pushing to new multi-month highs.

    • Asia heading into the year-end with a strong positive bias as technology stocks drive gains in the region's northern exchanges, gaming stocks recover in Hong Kong, and India benefits again from an across-the-board rally. Japan's benchmarks propelled by exporters as the yen weakened after the BOJ summary of opinions reassured investors its ultra-low interest rate policy would remain in place; market now shifting expectations for an exit in April from January following spring wage talks.

    • China industrial profits rose sharply in November versus a low base year but momentum was also positive on a month-to-month basis. South Korea and Taiwan consumer confidence strengthened amid softer inflation. USTR extended tariff exclusions on 352 Chinese import categories until end-May. India's current account deficit fell as its trade deficit narrowed substantially.

    • Nidec's (6594.JP) president said the motor maker is considering building one or two additional plants in India as early as 2025 to tap demand for e-scooter and air-conditioners. Softbank (9984.JP) said it would exercise 48M T-Mobile shares worth around ¥1.1T ($7.6M); shares jumped. New World Development (17.HK) is to team up with state-owned China Resources Land (1109.HK) to build a residential project in Hong Kong's Northern Metropolis. NIO (9866.HK) unveiled a new high-end luxury sedan and chip for use in self-driving cars; shares surged. POSCO Holdings (047050.KS) is to build a plant for rare gasses used in chipmaking in China. Taeyoung Engineering & Construction (009410.KS) is considering a restructuring following rumors of a liquidity crisis. Adani Energy (541450.IN) will spend $460M to build a power transmission line from the Khavda renewable energy park in Gujarat.

  • Digest:

    • China gaming stocks rebound after authorities moved to sooth fears of crackdown:

      • China gaming stocks rebounding in Hong Kong with Tencent (700.HK), NetEase (9999.HK), Bilibili (9626.HK) trading up at least 5% in early Wednesday trade (Bloomberg). Rebound attributed to China authorities appearing to soften their stance on online gaming sector following Friday's shock announcement of a crackdown on in-game spending. China's National Press and Publication Administration (NPPA) pledged to "revise and improve" rules, while approving 105 online games on Monday- most in 17 months. A group of smaller gaming companies announced share buybacks in a bid to restore investor confidence. Oversold conditions were also highlighted after some analysts downplayed impact of rule change on companies like Tencent. However, analysts also acknowledged sentiment likely to remain cautious over short-term as the surprise nature of Friday's announcement recalled memories of China's 2021 crackdown on internet platforms.

    • BOJ Summary of Opinions notes timing of policy normalization is getting closer:

      • December BOJ Summary of Opinions showed one view noting that with likelihood of achieving 2% inflation in stable and sustainable rising further, timing of policy normalization is getting closer. Added that to avoid risk of high prices damaging consumption, BOJ should not miss opportunity to normalize policy. Others stressed necessity of examining positive and side effects of YCC and NIRP, as well as importance of deepening discussions on issues such as exit timing and appropriate pace of rate hikes thereafter. Another noted even if next spring's wage outcomes are significantly higher than expected, risk of inflation overshooting 2% target is small and BOJ is not in a situation where it falls behind the curve if it does not rush to raise rates. One said that to achieve virtuous cycle between wages and prices, nominal wage growth momentum needs to strengthen. Another added that H2 of FY23 will be important in determining whether price stability target has been achieved.

    • China industrial profits jump in November, rising for four consecutive months:

      • Profits at industrial firms in China for November rose 29.5% y/y, following 2.7% increase in October, logging fourth consecutive monthly growth. Sharp rise helped by favorable base effect and raft of stimulus measures. Companies also recorded large investment returns in November. Profits fell 4.4% for Jan-Nov, narrowing from 7.8% decline in Jan-Oct with pace of decline narrowing since March.State-owned enterprises saw profits drop 6.2% in Jan-Nov (vs -9.9% in Jan-Oct), while foreign firms posted 8.7% fall ( vs -10.2% in Jan-Oct) and private enterprises recorded a 1.6% gain over period (vs -1.9% in Jan-Oct). NBS statistician highlighted growth in China's auto industry, which saw a rise of 2.9% in profits in Jan-Nov, driven by acceleration of manufacturing, domestic sales and exports. Broader equipment manufacturing sector grew 2.8% in Jan-Nov, contributing a 0.9 ppt gain in overall industrial profits. Reuters noted gains in industrial profits in November added to mixed messages on economy, which missed forecasts on other fronts. China's economic recovery remains on shaky ground amid persistent property woes and growing deflationary pressures.

    • China economic growth expected to slow further in 2024:

      • Quarterly Nikkei Survey showed economists expect China GDP growth to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024. Average GDP growth forecast for 2023 and 2024 revised up by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively since September's survey. Usual headwinds were mentioned, including from an ongoing property market slump, stagnant demand, local government funding difficulties, and insufficient stimulus. Yuan projected to rebounded to 7.00 per dollar by end-2024 (vs ~7.14 currently), reflecting Fed's pivot to rate cuts. However, extent of yuan appreciation limited by China's yield gap with US. China's economy expected to face ongoing challenges from geopolitical tensions, deterring foreign investors. China also faces structural headwinds from an aging population, high youth unemployment and a debt overhang, which economists anticipate will slow GDP growth further over coming decade.

    • Dollar near five-month low as yen positioning turns bullish:

      • Dollar index down 2% so far in December, back near five-month low as markets continue to dial up Fed rate cut expectations. Swaps recently pricing in ~160 of Fed rate cuts in 2024, compared to ~140 bp being priced in immediate aftermath of December's Fed meeting (Bloomberg). Yen one of the best performers against greenback, up 3.4% in month-to-date as rise in BOJ normalization expectations corresponds with narrowing of US-Japan yield gap. Yen sentiment has been strengthening after CFTC data showed asset managers flipped to net long for first time since May and hedge funds reduced short contracts (Bloomberg). FX strategists see yen continuing to strengthen in 2024 with median year-end forecast in recent Bloomberg poll of 135 per dollar (implying 5% upside from current levels). At the same time some see risks to bullish yen outlook if Fed rate cuts disappoint, US economic performance proves stronger-than-anticipated or BOJ normalization is delayed.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +13.5% 5449.JP (OSAKA STEEL CO.): Strategic Capital emerges as major shareholder with 5% stake

      • +11.2% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): launch of ET9

      • +10.7% 047050.KS (POSCO INTERNATIONAL): POSCO Holdings collaborates with Chinese firm to build a plant for rare gases used mainly in chipmaking

      • +4.2% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): confirms acquisition of 48.8M T-Mobile shares (equivalent to $7.6B) for no additional consideration upon satisfaction of contingent consideration condition

      • +2.1% 047810.KS (KOREA AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES): signs KRW1.4T mass production contract with DAPA

      • +1.7% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports November global production +11.2% y/y at 926,573

      • +1.6% 6952.JP (Casio Computer Co.): to post ¥6.3B extraordinary gain in Q4 on transfer of Tokyo office land

      • +1.2% 16.HK (Sun Hung Kai Properties): retail sales in malls over the holidays

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -13.0% 009410.KS (TAEYOUNG Engineering & Construction Co Ltd): confirms company reviewing measures following rumors of liquidity crisis

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan November

        • Housing starts y/y (8.5%) versus consensus (4.3%) and (6.3%) in prior month

      • China November

        • Industrial profits YTD (4.4%) y/y vs (7.8%) in prior month

          • Industrial profits +29.5% y/y vs +2.7% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 375.39 or +1.13% to 33681.24

      • Hang Seng: 284.43 or +1.74% to 16624.84

      • Shanghai Composite: 15.74 or +0.54% to 2914.61

      • Shenzhen Composite: 9.89 or +0.56% to 1776.51

      • ASX200: 59.60 or +0.79% to 7561.20

      • KOSPI: 10.91 or +0.42% to 2613.50

      • SENSEX: 295.60 or +0.41% to 71632.40

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.12 or +0.08% to 142.5140

      • $-KRW: (2.38) or (0.18%) to 1293.9300

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.12% to 0.6834

      • $-INR: +0.12 or +0.14% to 83.3408

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1430

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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